2012 election pregame

RepoMan · 2012-10-09T11:25:58.000Z

You can submit and vote on questions for the next presidential debate! But hurry, the deadline is midnight tonight.

MrGrumpy · 2012-10-09T12:42:35.000Z

RepoMan:

You can submit and vote on questions for the next presidential debate! But hurry, the deadline is midnight tonight.

Thanks for that link.
I’m surprised that so many thoughtful questions are being posted.

triggercut · 2012-10-09T12:50:23.000Z

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

Awaiting a couple more polls, but possible our model will show its largest one-day swing of the year.

Dan_Theman · 2012-10-09T12:54:54.000Z

You’re expecting truth in advertising during a campaign? Come on …

triggercut · 2012-10-09T13:01:29.000Z

By the way–anyone out there still believe “debates don’t matter”? That was the most ridiculous bit of “conventional wisdom” I’d ever seen peddled to the masses by respected pundits who should know better–including Nate Silver.

Clay · 2012-10-09T13:32:20.000Z

“When you give conservatives bad news in your polls, they want to kill you,” he said. “When you give liberals bad news in your polls, they want to kill themselves.” - http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/post/conservatives-liberals-and-polls/2012/10/09/ddeef47e-124c-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_blog.html

Malathor · 2012-10-09T13:33:05.000Z

triggercut:

By the way–anyone out there still believe “debates don’t matter”? That was the most ridiculous bit of “conventional wisdom” I’d ever seen peddled to the masses by respected pundits who should know better–including Nate Silver.

Why on earth is Nate Silver so respected? He led me to think Kerry would win in 2004. He wasn’t as good as RCP’s simple poll average in the 2008 general election. He was hilariously off on the UK elections. What about his track record would indicate that he’s any better than the RCP average?

divedivedive · 2012-10-09T13:37:04.000Z

I’m not convinced debates really do matter, though, at least in terms of outcomes. If Romney ends up winning however, I will eat my words.

Hugin · 2012-10-09T13:42:03.000Z

triggercut:

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

Awaiting a couple more polls, but possible our model will show its largest one-day swing of the year.

Where are you seeing this triggercut?

WarrenM · 2012-10-09T13:51:34.000Z

Cute.

Upworthy

This Is The Kind Of Thing That Makes People Hate Politics

I hope this is an exception, and not the rule.

Just tell people flat out lies to get their vote. Nice work.

Timex · 2012-10-09T13:55:29.000Z

Malathor:

Why on earth is Nate Silver so respected? He led me to think Kerry would win in 2004. He wasn’t as good as RCP’s simple poll average in the 2008 general election. He was hilariously off on the UK elections. What about his track record would indicate that he’s any better than the RCP average?

I’ve wondered the same thing, but from looking at the wiki page on them, it appears like he has a decent track record, based on things like the 2010 midterms.

Kolonial · 2012-10-09T14:31:53.000Z

Hugin:

Where are you seeing this triggercut?

Nate’s twitter. Although he’s since updated to state it’s still 70/30 Obama.

BrianRubin · 2012-10-09T14:37:16.000Z

Hahaha, this is awesome.

nytimes.com

Opinion | Two Presidents, Smoking and Scheming

Aaron Sorkin pulls back the curtain on a secret New England presidential summit.

cheapfilms · 2012-10-09T14:41:07.000Z

Malathor:

Why on earth is Nate Silver so respected? He led me to think Kerry would win in 2004. He wasn’t as good as RCP’s simple poll average in the 2008 general election. He was hilariously off on the UK elections. What about his track record would indicate that he’s any better than the RCP average?

Do you mean Rasmussen? Was Nate Silver even around in 2004?

Malathor · 2012-10-09T15:02:38.000Z

cheapfilms:

Do you mean Rasmussen? Was Nate Silver even around in 2004?

Hmmm…may have it confused with someone else’s blog which was also called 538 something back in 2004.

ReptileHouse · 2012-10-09T15:02:52.000Z

He was still big into poker back in 2004, IIRC.

edit: Nate started 538 in March of 2008. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008_03_02_archive.html

Juan_Rayo · 2012-10-09T15:34:21.000Z

Brian Rubin:

Hahaha, this is awesome.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/07/opinion/sunday/dowd-two-presidents-smoking-and-scheming.html

hah! loved it.

RepoMan · 2012-10-09T16:28:08.000Z

NICE. That’s what’s gotta happen, alright.

triggercut · 2012-10-09T16:35:29.000Z

Malathor:

Hmmm…may have it confused with someone else’s blog which was also called 538 something back in 2004.

Nate Silver was not doing political prognosticating in 2004.

Wrong again.

triggercut · 2012-10-09T16:37:17.000Z

ReptileHouse:

He was still big into poker back in 2004, IIRC.

edit: Nate started 538 in March of 2008. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008_03_02_archive.html

Before that he was posting his predictions as diaries on DailyKOS, where he was so accurate–and getting so much attention for his accuracy–about the primaries/caucuses in both parties that he had to out himself as Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus.