2012 election pregame

Starlight · 2012-09-27T13:13:27.000Z

charmtrap:

I do wish he’d stop with the clean coal business. I know he’s trying to win in coal-producing states, but come on…“clean coal”?

HEY! Germany’s built a nice new green coal plant. A whole 15% or so less polluting!

(i.e. I’d still rather live right next to the nuclear power plant)

And biofuels are pushing food prices up…let alone using water!

Hugin · 2012-09-27T13:18:58.000Z

Woolen Horde:

Obama had unveiled his closing ad since early voting has now begun in a bunch of states. Rodney’s widow is closing fast, because votes are being cast now.

Meanwhile, Obama says BAM

And there’s a new clip out of Romney talking about Bain finding startups so they can “build them up” then a few years later “harvest” them for “significant profit”.

Now, let me be clear: It’s an old clip from 1985, nothing he’s talking about is illegal or anything, it’s just the words he uses, compared to the notion of this guy running around strengthening America, creating jobs…not “harvesting” for “significant profit”. It’ll probably lose him another day or two of narrative.

WarrenM · 2012-09-27T13:49:41.000Z

That Obama ad is amazing. Holy shit. What a ball crusher for Romney.

Tin_Wisdom · 2012-09-27T13:59:07.000Z

It really is pitch-perfect. No explaining to the viewer what’s going on, no attacks… just Romney’s recorded voice and pictures.

RepoMan · 2012-09-27T14:15:08.000Z

Ghad, I’m sure all the conservative bloggers who came up with the whole 47% meme are banging their heads against their desks really, really hard right now.

Also, looks like red states have done better than blue states recently. Since most of the 47% live in red states, that means Obama’s policies are helping the 47% more than anyone else, right now.

BrianRubin · 2012-09-27T14:29:48.000Z

Tin Wisdom:

It really is pitch-perfect. No explaining to the viewer what’s going on, no attacks… just Romney’s recorded voice and pictures.

Yeah, it actually feels, dare I say it, classy.

EvoEco · 2012-09-27T14:32:20.000Z

charmtrap:

The new 2-minute Obama ad is really pretty good. It feels a bit like a closing argument kind of an ad…which I suppose given how much early voting in swing states matters now, it kind of is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ZYI7qPO5wVw

It isn’t scientific, of course, but the number of “likes” vs. “dislikes” for that ad speaks volumes about the likely outcome of this election.

RepoMan · 2012-09-27T14:40:21.000Z

Not necessarily. But I must say that Obama’s doing a great damn job of laying out the plan he wants people to remember most. Romney’s failed to produce anything nearly so straightforward. (As far as I know, anyway. Am I wrong?)

Timex · 2012-09-27T15:21:02.000Z

EvoEco:

It isn’t scientific, of course, but the number of “likes” vs. “dislikes” for that ad speaks volumes about the likely outcome of this election.

You should consider that such a thing is going to be passed among people who support Obama.

strummer · 2012-09-27T15:26:04.000Z

EvoEco:

It isn’t scientific, of course, but the number of “likes” vs. “dislikes” for that ad speaks volumes about the likely outcome of this election.

I noticed that as well and was, frankly, surprised by the overwhelming likes for not only that video but the other linked above. I didn’t expect that given the often contentious and divisive opinions you typically find on such videos (hell, any youtube video really) and within political discourse in general.

Alstein · 2012-09-27T16:08:31.000Z

Obama supporters are also much more likely to use youtube.

charmtrap · 2012-09-27T16:08:46.000Z

New swing state polls:

Obama is ahead of Romney, 51 percent to 44 percent, among likely voters in New Hampshire. He also edges Romney in Nevada and North Carolina, but within the margin of error.

In Nevada, Obama gets the support of 49 percent of likely voters and Romney gets 47 percent. In North Carolina, it’s Obama at 48 percent and Romney at 46 percent. (Among registered voters in all three states, Obama’s lead expands to 8 points in New Hampshire, 4 points in North Carolina, and a wider 7 points in Nevada.)

First Read

Polls: Obama leads in N.H., tighter in Nev., N.C.

President Barack Obama leads Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, and the two are locked in tight contests in Nevada and North Carolina, according to a new series of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls released T

Nevada is still pretty tight, but that’s encouraging in NC.

Dejin · 2012-09-27T16:36:22.000Z

RepoMan:

Not necessarily. But I must say that Obama’s doing a great damn job of laying out the plan he wants people to remember most. Romney’s failed to produce anything nearly so straightforward. (As far as I know, anyway. Am I wrong?)

I dunno, Romney’s 47% “speech” was straightforward and memorable.

Oghier · 2012-09-27T21:31:36.000Z

RepoMan:

Ghad, I’m sure all the conservative bloggers who came up with the whole 47% meme are banging their heads against their desks really, really hard right now.

That is a really good article.

And yet, after Romney gets pummeled, I suspect the Republican party will decide he wasn’t conservative enough. They may go full-on crazy next time and run some combination of Santorum/ Palin/ Bachmann or similar. ‘Real conservatives.’ When Hilary then wins by 10 percentage points, they might realize that their insanity can’t survive the light of day, and not everyone believes everything Sean Hannity says to be the gospel truth.

That’s my hope, anyway.

cornfuzed · 2012-09-27T22:13:23.000Z

Being from PA, all I read about in the local paper is the Voter ID law. http://thetimes-tribune.com/news/ihm-nuns-lacking-voter-id-call-law-unfair-and-ridiculous-1.1379577
The Right wing nut-jobs are frothing at the mouth about how Democrats rig elections.

First Read

RNC cuts ties with firm over voter fraud allegations

Updated: 8:46p.m. ET: Election officials in six Florida counties are investigating what appears to be "hundreds” of cases of suspected voter fraud by a GOP consulting firm that has been paid nearly $3 million by the Republic

For me that was Karma, and she’s a bitch.

triggercut · 2012-09-27T22:43:05.000Z

Interesting/confusing to me: Obama unveiled two new, and by all reports highly effective TV ads on Tuesday night. Team Obama is running them in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Nevada.

They aren’t running them in North Carolina.

Now, Obama has ad time in North Carolina. He’s on the air there.

But given his up-tick in polling there since the 47% thing broke, I wonder what the Team Obama internals are saying about their chances in the Tar Heel State.

cornfuzed · 2012-09-28T01:44:53.000Z

Samuel L Jackson is awesome.

http://www.wtfu2012.com/

Alstein · 2012-09-28T02:56:37.000Z

triggercut:

Interesting/confusing to me: Obama unveiled two new, and by all reports highly effective TV ads on Tuesday night. Team Obama is running them in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Nevada.

They aren’t running them in North Carolina.

Now, Obama has ad time in North Carolina. He’s on the air there.

But given his up-tick in polling there since the 47% thing broke, I wonder what the Team Obama internals are saying about their chances in the Tar Heel State.

Of all those states, NC is the least likely to stay blue. He should be running some ads in Winston-Salem though at least. Obama wins easily without NC as well, might be a waste of money.

NC has never really been in play- you also have to add the damage of Bev Purdue in NC, her incompetence really hurts (I don’t know much about Dalton, but I voted 3rd-party for governor because Purdue is terrible) The UNC basketball/football might also be playing a role, though I doubt this.

triggercut · 2012-09-28T03:13:09.000Z

Alstein:

Of all those states, NC is the least likely to stay blue. He should be running some ads in Winston-Salem though at least. Obama wins easily without NC as well, might be a waste of money.

NC has never really been in play- you also have to add the damage of Bev Purdue in NC, her incompetence really hurts (I don’t know much about Dalton, but I voted 3rd-party for governor because Purdue is terrible) The UNC basketball/football might also be playing a role, though I doubt this.

I think that’s bad strategy. Here’s why.

There are two states that Obama won in 2008 that he’s not either running even in or behind right now: Indiana and North Carolina. He has little chance of Indiana this time (although the Democratic senate candidate there is doing well thanks to the GOP nominating a Tea Partier). North Carolina, then, represents the one state that Obama can spend tons of ad money in and force Romney to match him and force him to use resources there instead of elsewhere.

Romney is on the offensive here. He’s got to flip about 5 states to win this. One strategy for Obama is to “turtle up” in those states and focus his ad buys there and play defense. I think that’s a scary way to go. Obama has the initiative, Romney’s on his heels. I think you keep him there by going hard after North Carolina, making feints into Arizona, and forcing Romney to spread out his money in thinner and thinner ways.

Alstein · 2012-09-28T03:51:52.000Z

Oh , I agree. However, if you are to give in on one state you won last time, NC would be that state- given what has happened here.

Obama barely won NC last time by the slimmest of margins. He has been campaigning here a good bit. Another possibility is he thinks the ad won’t play well in NC.