2012 election pregame

MikeJ · 2012-10-02T11:24:57.000Z

Stronger support among women isn’t necessarily driven by so-called ‘women’s issues’. You could just as easily assign it to a problem that white men have with Obama (e.g., see this Economist post).

jeffd · 2012-10-02T11:32:48.000Z

White men don’t have a problem with the President. Southern white men have a problem with the President.

PRI study:

In mid-August, Romney held a commanding 40-point lead over Obama among white working-class voters in the South (62% vs. 22%). However, neither candidate held a statistically significant lead among white working-class voters in the West (46% Romney vs. 41% Obama), Northeast (42% Romney vs. 38% Obama), or the Midwest (36% Romney vs. 44% Obama).

triggercut · 2012-10-02T11:44:21.000Z

jeffd:

White men don’t have a problem with the President. Southern white men have a problem with the President.

Huh. You think those southern white men are not fans of the President for his controversial stance on drones? Maybe it’s because Obamacare does not include a single-payer option. Perhaps they object to things like warrantless wiretapping continuing, or Gitmo remaining open. Maybe it’s his nuanced stance on home mortgages.

BrianRubin · 2012-10-02T11:45:30.000Z

triggercut:

Huh. You think those southern white men are not fans of the President for his controversial stance on drones? Maybe it’s because Obamacare does not include a single-payer option. Perhaps they object to things like warrantless wiretapping continuing, or Gitmo remaining open. Maybe it’s his nuanced stance on home mortgages.

I always thought it was for the bank bailout.

triggercut · 2012-10-02T11:46:22.000Z

Second New Hampshire poll in as many days shows a wider lead in New Hampshire for Obama. PPP has him +7.5 there, a day after a UNH poll gave the inumbent a 15-point lead.

That’s bad news for Romney, as any strategy which skips Ohio needs him to win New Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes.

triggercut · 2012-10-02T11:47:39.000Z

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump

Wednesday’s debate is day one of the election. Over 700 million voters will be watching.

(Mr Trump has since deleted this gem.)

jeffd · 2012-10-02T11:49:06.000Z

triggercut:

Huh. You think those southern white men are not fans of the President for his controversial stance on drones? Maybe it’s because Obamacare does not include a single-payer option. Perhaps they object to things like warrantless wiretapping continuing, or Gitmo remaining open. Maybe it’s his nuanced stance on home mortgages.

There are some obvious inferences to be drawn from that study, but keep in mind that Southern white men pretty much hate Democrats in general.

triggercut · 2012-10-02T11:53:28.000Z

jeffd:

There are some obvious inferences to be drawn from that study, but keep in mind that Southern white men pretty much hate Democrats in general.

They didn’t used to! They used to love them some Democrats in the South. Something must’ve happened in the postwar era that changed their minds. Probably has something to do with Reagan’s economic policies, or perhaps Vietnam. Maybe they’re just all big Eisenhower fans.

Houngan · 2012-10-02T12:02:07.000Z

triggercut:

Huh. You think those southern white men are not fans of the President for his controversial stance on drones? Maybe it’s because Obamacare does not include a single-payer option. Perhaps they object to things like warrantless wiretapping continuing, or Gitmo remaining open. Maybe it’s his nuanced stance on home mortgages.

I know where you’re going with that, and it’s likely true to a large extent, but the real reason they tell you (me) is that Obama will raise taxes on everyone and make you pay for other people’s healthcare. Of course I explain to them that their taxes are lower now than they have ever been in their lives, and then the screaming starts . . .

Papageno · 2012-10-02T12:04:15.000Z

triggercut:

They didn’t used to! They used to love them some Democrats in the South. Something must’ve happened in the postwar era that changed their minds. Probably has something to do with Reagan’s economic policies, or perhaps Vietnam. Maybe they’re just all big Eisenhower fans.

Yeah, gee, something must have happened. I can’t put my finger on it. Oh yeah, the national Democrats stopped coddling the bigot Southern Asshole Democrats in the party and insisted that black people had to be treated like full citizens. How revolutionary!

triggercut · 2012-10-02T12:04:52.000Z

I’m being facetious, obviously, and know quite very well that I’m unfairly stereotyping.

Woolen_Horde · 2012-10-02T12:08:53.000Z

triggercut:

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump

Wednesday’s debate is day one of the election. Over 700 million voters will be watching.

(Mr Trump has since deleted this gem.)

Oh, come on. YOU KNOW HE’S TALKING ABOUT ALL THOSE FAKE DEMOCRATIC VOTERS.

Dan_Theman · 2012-10-02T14:38:23.000Z

Yeah, I’m pretty sure that must include everyone that ACORN signed up … ;)

Hugin · 2012-10-02T17:01:33.000Z

Patrick Murphy fires back at Allen West

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=v1BcISId0Mg

JeffL · 2012-10-02T18:26:59.000Z

Houngan:

. . . and now I get it. They’re going to lower the taxes on millionaires and screw the upper-middle class so that they can claim the middle class, which they will define at the $50,000 median income for their purposes, aren’t getting any tax increases. Now someone remind me, where have we been arguing the job-creating small businessman’s income resides?

So, what is the long game here? Let’s say the GOP wins. They lower taxes on millionaires, and the average voter loses their home mortgage deduction, and other deductions, and their tax bill goes way up. The average voter realizes they’ve been screwed. And how is this sustainable for the GOP? What keeps them from being kicked out of the White House and Congress ASAP? People tend to vote their wallet.

(Of course, I realize that in the real world nothing would actually get done, and there’s no way Congress would EVER vote through anything that eliminated the home mortgage deduction.)

Jason_McCullough · 2012-10-02T18:37:56.000Z

The GOP somehow managed to get this far with that approach.

JeffL · 2012-10-02T18:45:04.000Z

Jason McCullough:

The GOP somehow managed to get this far with that approach.

But all talk. And the average American has had their taxes lowered lately (Bush Tax Cuts) which is the opposite of what we’re talking about.

Houngan · 2012-10-02T19:07:01.000Z

JeffL:

So, what is the long game here? Let’s say the GOP wins. They lower taxes on millionaires, and the average voter loses their home mortgage deduction, and other deductions, and their tax bill goes way up. The average voter realizes they’ve been screwed. And how is this sustainable for the GOP? What keeps them from being kicked out of the White House and Congress ASAP? People tend to vote their wallet.

(Of course, I realize that in the real world nothing would actually get done, and there’s no way Congress would EVER vote through anything that eliminated the home mortgage deduction.)

There is no long game. The GOP hasn’t used (or needed) a long game in two decades. They cut taxes and blew up the budget for no good reason while touting lower taxes, now they’re going to raise taxes on a smaller set of people in a non-obvious way and claim to care about the budget. The idiots that vote for these morons (or is it the other way around?) have the memory of fruit flies. As long as you push 51% of their buttons they’ll pull the lever like they always do. I mean, have you actually brought up the fact that everyone is paying the lowest taxes of the last fifty years under Obama with a Republican? Do so, see for yourself how reality and memory have nothing to do with their bias.

Jason_McCullough · 2012-10-02T19:27:49.000Z

JeffL:

But all talk. And the average American has had their taxes lowered lately (Bush Tax Cuts) which is the opposite of what we’re talking about.

Sure, but the way those cuts were paid for was cutting services, which voters have definitely noticed. I think that’s the reason taxes have fallen way down the priority list for the public, it doesn’t have anywhere near the resonance it used to, even ignoring any racial angle.

ineffablebob · 2012-10-03T06:31:09.000Z

Interesting little article over at NPR about how most of what we focus on in the presidential election doesn’t really matter.

5 Myths about the Presidential Race

Related: Who the President is actually doesn’t matter all that much, especially on the economy. Not that we’ll stop arguing about it.