Canuck
1921
So what’s the over/under on tomorrow’s job numbers? If they’re good then Romney’s strong debate performance is immediately forgotten and Obama is back on track. If they’re not good then Obama’s still probably on track although it will be much easier for the media to portray it as the horse race that they want.
Unemployment fell to under 8% last month.
WASHINGTON — The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent last month, dropping below 8 percent for the first time in nearly four years. The rate declined because more people found work, a trend that could have an impact on undecided voters in the final month before the presidential election.
The Labor Department said Friday that employers added 114,000 jobs in September. The economy also created 86,000 more jobs in July and August than first estimated. Wages rose in September and more people started looking for work.
JeffL
1923
Got a big flyer in the mail yesterday, featuring big pictures of Clinton and Reagan on the front. The headline was something like “These Presidents loved their country!” and it was from the national Democratic party. Reagan, from the Dems?
On the back it basically said Romney was the first person ever to run for president who had a Swiss bank account, and basically that this was a clear sign he didn’t love America like Clinton and Reagan did.
Not sure of the logic, but found it interesting the Democrats are targeting fans of Reagan here in Iowa.
… And the pundits are already off and running, explaining why the unemployment number means Obama is saved today, whereas he was d00med yesterday morning. What an exciting horserace!
Meanwhile the Nate Silvers of the world are shrugging their shoulders and saying Of Course, We’ve Been Expecting That. We’re at the point in the campaign now where polls are leading indicators of the economy and the unemployment numbers are lagging indicators of the polls. In other words, the improved jobs outlook had already been factored into Obama’s improving numbers over the last six weeks.
Timex
1926
I’m thinking it’s gonna have to do better than just “under 8% unemployment”.
JeffL
1927
Reading the report in detail, there’s still a piece where a significant number are people taking part time jobs because they can’t find full time jobs.
What I still can’t find are any fundamental reasons behind why jobs are increasing, decreasing, etc. at any given time.
It’s good enough to beat “multiple choice Mitt.”
That’s interesting if true, I hadn’t thought of that. But I’m surprised that approval numbers react that quickly.
Monday: “Damn Obama, I can’t get a job and it’s his fault!”
Wednesday: “Yahoo, I’m hired! Obama is the best!”
Hugin
1930
I think you’re wrong The 8% unemplyment number has been a symbolic anchor around Obama’s neck for a long time. Republicans have used it as a talking point, self styled election historians have used it as a talking point. Any improvement in job numbers is good news for Obama, of course, but symbolically dropping below 8 percent is going to give him a nice couple of news cycles and blunt Romney’s “debate bounce” if there is such a thing.
Jack Welch, the former CEO of General Electric [GE 22.95 0.04 (+0.17%) ], caused a stir after the numbers were released, tweeting “Unbelievable jobs numbers…these Chicago guys will do anything…can’t debate so change numbers.”
Obama needs to hire better book cookers . You would think anyone competent at making up numbers would use bigger numbers.
Actually, it’s because a bunch of democrats collaborated in a conspiracy to lie about getting jobs.
Canuck
1933
This is really an own goal by the Republicans. For months they’ve been repeating the mantra of the 8% unemployment and how no president has ever been reflected with unemployment under 8% and now it has dropped below that magical bar that they set and if they hadn’t made it such milestone then 7.8% would have seemed just as bad and not the sunshine and daisies that it seems to be now.
jeffd
1934
Proof the jobs number is good for the President: the degree to which right wingers are coming up with crazy theories to discredit it.
Canuck
1935
Re-elected.
Damn you auto correct and damn you Tapatalk for not letting me update my post. What is up with that?
Oh, we’re talking about several months, not a matter of days. The last couple of monthly jobs reports have been quite strong, and they just revised the July and August job creation numbers up even further.
(“But wait! Didn’t the pundits tell me last month that the August jobs report was lousy, and that it spelled d00m for Obama?” Yeah, well, you’re not going to get terribly accurate economic analysis from pundits. What they failed to mention was that the August jobs report was the best August jobs report in five years. It’s just that August is tends to be a weak month for job creation, historically speaking.)
Hugin
1937
I believe there’ll be one more jobs report before the election and it’s almost guaranteed to look good because of holiday hiring. This is excellent news for John McCain!
Timex
1938
I’m not so sure… because, really, 7.8% unemployment is TERRIBLE. I could easily see folks spinning it as something like, “What does it say about the situation, when people are acting like 7.8% unemployment is good?”
It’s better than the nine something it was at when he took office, isn’t it? ;)
Hugin
1940
Doesn’t matter. It’s better than it was. And it breaks the 8% barrier which has been a talking point.
“Things are getting better”
trumps
“relatively speaking compared to historical averages, things are bad”.
in terms of short term political opinion. People know things have been bad. They want evidence we’re heading the right direction.
