2012 election pregame

charmtrap · 2012-10-05T08:34:14.000Z

Timex:

I’m not so sure… because, really, 7.8% unemployment is TERRIBLE. I could easily see folks spinning it as something like, “What does it say about the situation, when people are acting like 7.8% unemployment is good?”

It’s comparatively good news…don’t be a duh. The quote on the radio on my way in was “unambiguously good jobs report”.

BrianRubin · 2012-10-05T08:34:26.000Z

But it’s still not “what a real recovery looks like,” apparently.

Jason_McCullough · 2012-10-05T08:42:00.000Z

The average unemployment rate 1920 to 2010 not counting the great depression 1930-1941 is 5.5%. Including the GD you get 6.8%.

Of those 49 years, the highest rates are these. I’ve bolded the most hilarious one.

1982 9.7
2010 9.6
2009 9.3
1976 7.7
1992 7.5
1984 7.5
1980 7.1

The Great Recession is the worst business cycle downturn overall, for duration and severity, since the Great Depression. In terms of the actual unemployment rate 7.8% is significantly high, but “it’s high” isn’t the entire story, as you can see in 1984.

Houngan · 2012-10-05T08:45:30.000Z

Timex:

I’m not so sure… because, really, 7.8% unemployment is TERRIBLE. I could easily see folks spinning it as something like, “What does it say about the situation, when people are acting like 7.8% unemployment is good?”

Sigh. Have you really completely forgotten the last four years? Were you alive in 2008? Were you expecting unemployment, the classic trailing indicator, to somehow snap back to 4% in a year or two? It’s exactly where it was predicted to be once the magnitude of the meltdown was known.

Exodor · 2012-10-05T08:49:59.000Z

Hugin:

I believe there’ll be one more jobs report before the election and it’s almost guaranteed to look good because of holiday hiring. This is excellent news for John McCain!

Don’t they adjust to account for seasonal hires?

I’m getting dizzy following this week’s news cycles:

Tuesday: New (not really) tape proves Obama is a racist! And he talks like a black person!
Wednesday: Romney pwns Obama in debate. “New” tape is instantly forgotten
Friday: Decent job report. Debate? What debate?

BrianRubin · 2012-10-05T08:51:18.000Z

Houngan:

Sigh. Have you really completely forgotten the last four years? Were you alive in 2008? Were you expecting unemployment, the classic trailing indicator, to somehow snap back to 4% in a year or two? It’s exactly where it was predicted to be once the magnitude of the meltdown was known.

Pardon, but that does seem to be, at least to me, the general attitude on the other side of the isle. Very short, selective memory.

JeffL · 2012-10-05T08:52:12.000Z

And is my Google-fu really that weak? I can’t find anything that talks about the why of the jobs numbers. As in, this is what was done that resulted in a jobs recovery recently.

Hugin · 2012-10-05T08:54:21.000Z

Exodor:

Don’t they adjust to account for seasonal hires?

I’m getting dizzy following this week’s news cycles:

Tuesday: New (not really) tape proves Obama is a racist! And he talks like a black person!
Wednesday: Romney pwns Obama in debate. “New” tape is instantly forgotten
Friday: Decent job report. Debate? What debate?

Yes, but I doubt it’ll matter. A ton of businesses must do the seasonal hires or the year is blown.

Hugin · 2012-10-05T08:55:38.000Z

JeffL:

And is my Google-fu really that weak? I can’t find anything that talks about the why of the jobs numbers. As in, this is what was done that resulted in a jobs recovery recently.

I believe earlier in the week I heard on the radio there was an uptick in manufacturing and construction.

mouselock · 2012-10-05T08:56:11.000Z

Houngan:

Sigh. Have you really completely forgotten the last four years? Were you alive in 2008? Were you expecting unemployment, the classic trailing indicator, to somehow snap back to 4% in a year or two?

Well no, not with one of them as president! That’s his whole point! It’s clearly not about the after-effects of a 10 year lead up to a huge bubble burst which we probably still haven’t seen the unwinding of the ridiculous amount of leveraging on. It’s about the fact that when 10 years of previous policy completely tanks the entire world’s economy, a real leader can violate whatever economic and natural laws necessary to undo it in the first couple of years in office! We know this, because the other side keeps telling us it’s a trivial matter and if only the current dude in office wasn’t so incompetent, it would have been fixed already. If you don’t believe that, just compare how shitty the US recovery has been to those other countries like ours out there who had better leaders leading their recovery!

strategy · 2012-10-05T09:02:16.000Z

charmtrap:

What an asshole:

Nah - just a matter of time (in this case very short time), before someone voiced this opinion. Obviously, anything reported by anyone remotely government related at this point that makes Obama looks good is part of a left-wing conspiracy.

Scuzz · 2012-10-05T09:09:42.000Z

Hugin:

I believe earlier in the week I heard on the radio there was an uptick in manufacturing and construction.

New home construction is supposed to be up. I do remember hearing that.

BrianRubin · 2012-10-05T09:10:58.000Z

Scuzz:

New home construction is supposed to be up. I do remember hearing that.

I also heard that, which is encouraging.

Houngan · 2012-10-05T09:12:55.000Z

JeffL:

And is my Google-fu really that weak? I can’t find anything that talks about the why of the jobs numbers. As in, this is what was done that resulted in a jobs recovery recently.

Nothing specific, it’s just the recovery. Things have been steadily getting better for a long time now, and jobs are finally catching up. It would have been nice if there were a way to speed things up (hello watered down stimulus bill, thanks GOP!) but housing is up, the markets are doing great, manufacturing is up, etc. It will continue to get better.

Scuzz · 2012-10-05T09:14:32.000Z

Being in central California we have not really seen the construction economy improve. But I have talked to construction people in the Bay Area who said two years ago that things were returning to normal.

Having the price of gas hit a $4.49 average ($.20 jump last night) won’t help California and it will be interesting to see how Gov. Brown’s tax increase does in the election.

BiggerBoat · 2012-10-05T09:41:37.000Z

Scuzz:

New home construction is supposed to be up. I do remember hearing that.

Around here, we had many housing developments under construction that just froze in place in 2008. Now, most of them are under construction again. Things appear to be moving.

I also know a couple of contractors who are now turning away work after a very long, tough dry spell.

Scuzz · 2012-10-05T09:43:59.000Z

BiggerBoat:

Around here, we had many housing developments under construction that just froze in place in 2008. Now, most of them are under construction again. Things appear to be moving.

I also know a couple of contractors who are now turning away work after a very long, tough dry spell.

We are starting to see the same thing. My company does commercial work and it is still very very slow but things do seem to be changing. Nobody around here is turning away work yet.

BrianRubin · 2012-10-05T09:44:01.000Z

That is really awesome to hear.

JeffL · 2012-10-05T09:58:05.000Z

Yeah, our customers are in just about every market segment, and we see significant improvement in the OEM/factory segment, and slight but real improvement in the architectural (housing, construction) industry.

What’s fascinating is when you talk to customer and try to figure out “why” business is better. I don’t see any correlation between anything that anyone is doing or has done from a Washington point of view and the improvement. I know people hate the “confidence” argument because it is so soft, but I just talked to a CEO a couple of weeks ago of a company that makes steel beams and such for building to be made from (kind of a pre-fab thing.) He was hiring back up again. I asked him why, what was different from a year ago. The answer was basically, well, sales are a bit better, and I’m not as scared now as I was that we’ll have the double dip. He’s still not confident enough to hire all the way back up to where he was, though. And that seems to be a trend. Even when I was at Caterpillar a few weeks ago, and they are global, it almost seems to be some self-fulling prophecy. (another thread, but everyone is talking about adjustments to their health insurance plans.)

Again, perhaps another confirmation that the President gets more credit and blame for the economy than ever deserved.

jeffd · 2012-10-05T10:21:55.000Z

Being able to say why “things are getting better” or why business is better is a huge complex question. If you have an answer you may want to forward it to the Nobel committee, and the guys who are in charge of MacArthur grants. :)

Basically: it’s complicated; the economy involves lots of variables and lots of feedback. If things really are starting to improve, then we’ve somehow managed to establish one of the virtuous cycles we know exist. Perhaps QE3 increased business confidence enough to where they started hiring, putting money in people’s pockets which increased demand, which further increased business confidence. Or maybe something else happened. I have no idea. Neither does anyone else, not really.