2012 GOP, who's it going to be?

Jason_McCullough · 2012-01-20T08:59:36.000Z

Gingrich’s response last night on his cheating was dumbfoundingly shameless.

              [Atrios](https://twitter.com/#%21/Atrios)   Atrios                                                   

   
 
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Rightbug · 2012-01-20T11:27:24.000Z

And yet, in spite of everything, Romney’s numbers are collapsing nationwide as Gingrich closes the gap:

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/01/gallup-romney-support-collapsing-nationally.php

I still think it’s going to be Romney. This is just a hilarious second surge from Gingrich who will once again collapse.

Black_Isis · 2012-01-20T11:37:00.000Z

Rightbug:

And yet, in spite of everything, Romney’s numbers are collapsing nationwide as Gingrich closes the gap:

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/01/gallup-romney-support-collapsing-nationally.php

I still think it’s going to be Romney. This is just a hilarious second surge from Gingrich who will once again collapse.

Regardless of who wins, they will both lose. At this rate, they are bloodying each other so badly that there’s going to be almost no way for them to beat Obama in the fall. Romney just comes off looking more and more shifty and disingenuous every time Gingrich presses him, and Gingrich is getting double-teamed by Romney and Santorum while he destroys any appeal he might have outside of the hardcore Republican base with shit like “black kids should work as janitors.”

Murbella · 2012-01-20T11:53:32.000Z

Black Isis:

Regardless of who wins, they will both lose. At this rate, they are bloodying each other so badly that there’s going to be almost no way for them to beat Obama in the fall. Romney just comes off looking more and more shifty and disingenuous every time Gingrich presses him, and Gingrich is getting double-teamed by Romney and Santorum while he destroys any appeal he might have outside of the hardcore Republican base with shit like “black kids should work as janitors.”

At least it is better than them being on food stamps sent by the food stamp president, am I right? drums

The mob is fickle. They will not remember any promises the candidates made to the hardcore right during the primaries once they make a token move to the center right to be more… sane.

CLWheeljack · 2012-01-20T11:56:59.000Z

I don’t really know a more appropriate thread for this, but the local news channel showed some footage of an Obama fund-raiser this morning, and the line he appears to be going for is, “stick with me, change is still coming”.

Which seems pretty weak and slightly disingenuous to me, but I’m not really sure what his other options are.

jeffd · 2012-01-20T12:01:27.000Z

Black Isis:

Regardless of who wins, they will both lose. At this rate, they are bloodying each other so badly that there’s going to be almost no way for them to beat Obama in the fall. Romney just comes off looking more and more shifty and disingenuous every time Gingrich presses him, and Gingrich is getting double-teamed by Romney and Santorum while he destroys any appeal he might have outside of the hardcore Republican base with shit like “black kids should work as janitors.”

Anyone know what the poli sci evidence regarding the impact of nasty primaries on the general election is? I’m skeptical that it has any effect at all, but I don’t know that for sure.

Clinton/Obama went on for a long time (the longest primary campaign I can remember), and it certainly didn’t hurt the President much.

Black_Isis · 2012-01-20T12:07:56.000Z

jeffd:

Anyone know what the poli sci evidence regarding the impact of nasty primaries on the general election is? I’m skeptical that it has any effect at all, but I don’t know that for sure.

Clinton/Obama went on for a long time (the longest primary campaign I can remember), and it certainly didn’t hurt the President much.

McCain was also an extremely weak candidate following a same-party administration with extremely low approval numbers, so I don’t know how good of a comparison that is. Didn’t Kennedy pose a pretty big primary challenge to Carter in '80? I don’t know…I don’t think I’ve seen a primary campaign this nasty since I really started paying attention to politics.

Miramon · 2012-01-20T12:24:50.000Z

Black Isis:

McCain was also an extremely weak candidate following a same-party administration with extremely low approval numbers, so I don’t know how good of a comparison that is. Didn’t Kennedy pose a pretty big primary challenge to Carter in '80? I don’t know…I don’t think I’ve seen a primary campaign this nasty since I really started paying attention to politics.

I don’t really remember that well, but I think it was an unexpected primary landslide for Carter, who started out totally obscure and unknown. I think Kennedy took the role of the 19th century Calhoun, swapping north for south and conservative for liberal, almost always coming in second.

Black_Isis · 2012-01-20T12:26:14.000Z

Miramon:

I don’t really remember that well, but I think it was an unexpected primary landslide for Carter, who started out totally obscure and unknown. I think Kennedy took the role of the 19th century Calhoun, swapping north for south and conservative for liberal, almost always coming in second.

I meant in '80, not in '76. Carter was many things, but I don’t think he was “unknown” in '80. :)

Miramon · 2012-01-20T12:31:00.000Z

Black Isis:

I meant in '80, not in '76. Carter was many things, but I don’t think he was “unknown” in '80. :)

Oh. I don’t remember '80 at all. Wiped it out no doubt because I couldn’t believe anyone could possibly vote for Reagan.

Lorini · 2012-01-20T12:33:36.000Z

Murbella:

At least it is better than them being on food stamps sent by the food stamp president, am I right? drums

The mob is fickle. They will not remember any promises the candidates made to the hardcore right during the primaries once they make a token move to the center right to be more… sane.

That didn’t work for Meg Whitman when she ran in California. Her efforts to prove more right wing than her GOP primary opponent backfired big time in the general election. And Obama’s campaign is certainly filing all of the bullshit away for the main campaign.

jeffd · 2012-01-20T12:36:06.000Z

Carter was challenged unsuccessfully by Kennedy in 1980. It’s not quite the same though, because that was an incumbent. Also, I believe that primary challenges aren’t so much something that weakens an incumbent, so much as they’re a byproduct of an incumbent’s weakness.

Black_Isis · 2012-01-20T12:43:09.000Z

jeffd:

Carter was challenged unsuccessfully by Kennedy in 1980. It’s not quite the same though, because that was an incumbent. Also, I believe that primary challenges aren’t so much something that weakens an incumbent, so much as they’re a byproduct of an incumbent’s weakness.

That’s probably a better point. I dunno, I really can’t think of anything that has been this bloody during the last 20 years or so. I certainly don’t think either primary in 2000 was this vicious, and even in 2008 it wasn’t this bad. You certainly didn’t have candidates going this far off the deep end to appeal to the base, which is going to lead them to get crushed in the general (especially going up against an incumbent who doesn’t need to tack hard left to appeal to his base).

jeffd · 2012-01-20T12:49:19.000Z

The McCain black baby thing in 2000 was pretty awful.

Mark_Asher · 2012-01-20T12:51:02.000Z

Black Isis:

That’s probably a better point. I dunno, I really can’t think of anything that has been this bloody during the last 20 years or so. I certainly don’t think either primary in 2000 was this vicious, and even in 2008 it wasn’t this bad. You certainly didn’t have candidates going this far off the deep end to appeal to the base, which is going to lead them to get crushed in the general (especially going up against an incumbent who doesn’t need to tack hard left to appeal to his base).

You have Republican candidates who are either not in it to really win (Gingrich and Paul) or who are delusional (Santorum). That makes for some wacky back and forth. They’re happy to say just about anything, either because it doesn’t really matter what they say because winning was never their primary motivation, or because they’re nutjobs like Santorum.

And yeah, Gingrich may very well now have delusions of winning and Paul may have had some longshot dream scenario, but I think they got in to either build their portfolio (Gingrich) or push their message (Paul).

Besides all the unintentional humor, one bright spot in this is how money seems less important this election. Advertising seems to be less effective than in the past.

Black_Isis · 2012-01-20T12:51:28.000Z

jeffd:

The McCain black baby thing in 2000 was pretty awful.

That’s true, but it was one isolated incident, no? I don’t know if we’ve had anything quite that bad yet, but it’s been a constant barrage of slightly-less-nasty crap being thrown out for months now, along with what, 12 or 13 debates now? And we’re only in January.

W_Wiley · 2012-01-20T12:56:33.000Z

Miramon:

Oh. I don’t remember '80 at all. Wiped it out no doubt because I couldn’t believe anyone could possibly vote for Reagan.

A lot of us didn’t we voted for John Anderson. Lesson learned.

Jason_McCullough · 2012-01-20T12:57:12.000Z

Black Isis:

Gingrich is getting double-teamed by Romney and Santorum

Thanks for that mental image!

Black_Isis · 2012-01-20T13:00:28.000Z

Jason McCullough:

Thanks for that mental image!

You’re welcome!

Lorini · 2012-01-20T14:11:19.000Z

Mark Asher:

Besides all the unintentional humor, one bright spot in this is how money seems less important this election. Advertising seems to be less effective than in the past.

That’s because what they are saying is so outrageous and stupid they don’t need to pay to market it. People repeat their trash all the time, on both the progressive and the evangelical sides. Also noting that they haven’t gotten to any primaries that really count.