2012 GOP, who's it going to be?

Rightbug · 2012-02-01T06:43:30.000Z

Timex:

Well, ultimately this type of thing is a little different. Those soldiers are actually working and providing some service, and as a result they are compensated. Part of that compensation includes things like burial.

Perhaps we could start some sort of a system where elderly Jews can do labor in return for Kosher meals?

HumanTon · 2012-02-01T06:58:51.000Z

Damion Schubert:

A little misleading. Romney ran last time as a conservative, since his principle opponents at the start of the race were McCain and (hilarious as it is to remember) Guiliani. He’s shifted to the center this year because his opposition was a clown car full of hard right wingers. Romney is nothing if not a political chameleon.

You misunderstand the magnitude of what has happened to the GOP. Was Romney to the right of McCain and Guiliani in 2008? Yes.

Are Romney’s policy proposals in 2012 to the left of Romney’s proposals in 2008? Absolutely not - instead he’s shifted rightward on a number of issues (health care, immigration and cutting government spending are all examples.)

But while Romney has nudged a bit right, the rest of the GOP presidential field has leapfrogged over him. Romney is now considerably to the left of his nearest opponent still in the race … but that’s purely because of how loony his opponents are. He hasn’t been moving leftward at all.

IainC · 2012-02-01T07:41:36.000Z

Scuzz:

Geez, I hate doing this, but, based on what? What would be the legal standing for the suit?

Emotional distress from being forced to act contrary to their religious beliefs?

Rightbug:

Perhaps we could start some sort of a system where elderly Jews can do labor in return for Kosher meals?

Maybe they could build some kind of huge pyramid or something?

Murbella · 2012-02-01T07:45:42.000Z

Has Romney even tried to label himself as a “The Moderate” though? Every time i watch debates Gingrich is saying his much used “Who would you rather want, a [something i can’t remember] conservative or a Massachusetts Moderate?” line. At which point Romney tries to defend his conservative status. It is a good attack for primaries where being extreme is rewarded and being moderate is punished.

Everyone knows that even if insanetorum wins, he will present himself as a center right candidate during the general elections though.

Tin_Wisdom · 2012-02-01T08:19:06.000Z

Murbella:

Has Romney even tried to label himself as a “The Moderate” though?

No. Huntsman tried that and it didn’t play too well to the primary crowds. Plus you have Gingrich doing his whole “liberal is a dirty word” thing right now, so even hinting of a moderate tenancy is showing weakness.

Murbella:

Everyone knows that even if insanetorum wins, he will present himself as a center right candidate during the general elections though.

Yeah, but such is the nature of the primaries. This is where Obama actually has a big leg up - since he has no challenger for the nomination he doesn’t have to pander to the Far Left and then repudiate it later on (this time).

The_Mad_Hatter · 2012-02-01T08:59:25.000Z

Tin Wisdom:

Yeah, but such is the nature of the primaries. This is where Obama actually has a big leg up - since he has no challenger for the nomination he doesn’t have to pander to the Far Left and then repudiate it later on (this time).

Yes, it’s worth noting that the last four incumbent Presidents to lose re-election (Carter, Bush I, Ford and LBJ) had to deal with primary challenges. LBJ was knocked out of the 1968 primaries and Ford and Carter barely survived theirs, while Bush I ended up having to deal with Ross Perot as well as Clinton. Obama is running unchallenged and there doesn’t seem to be any real third party opposition this time. As long as the economy doesn’t tank I think he’ll win.

Scuzz · 2012-02-01T09:01:12.000Z

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scuzz
Geez, I hate doing this, but, based on what? What would be the legal standing for the suit?

Emotional distress from being forced to act contrary to their religious beliefs?

I really don’t see that getting much traction in the legal system.

JeffL · 2012-02-01T09:04:56.000Z

I really have to laugh out loud as Gingrich tries to paint Romney as the “establishment” candidate and pontificates that the Republican establishment is afraid of him (Gingrich) because he is so anti-GOP establishment.

Right. Dude was in Congress, was Speaker, spends all his time selling books and selling speeches, selling his consulting signature to anyone who will pay him (including Freddie Mac,) panders to anyone of any persuasion if they’ll pay him six figures. He’s practically Ron Paul anti-establishment. Sheesh.

jeffd · 2012-02-01T09:06:30.000Z

That’s Gingrich for you!

JeffL · 2012-02-01T09:12:47.000Z

The Mad Hatter:

As long as the economy doesn’t tank I think he’ll win.

This is usually a very logical and true statement about an incumbent President. But the economy does suck and has sucked his entire term and unemployment will likely still be around 8.5% come election time. I really think people underestimate how simply most voters think about this issue: economy is good, my family is doing great, President is doing good. Economy sucks, my family (and friends etc.) have suffered, President sucks. A lot of voters hear everything else the way the kids in Charlie Brown cartoons hear adults ("blah blah blaaah blah blah.)

Scuzz · 2012-02-01T09:13:13.000Z

I think many people think the far right of the republican party is in control because they are the noisy part of the party, the Hannity’s, Limbaugh’s, Tea Party, wacky religious groups etc. But the largest voting block is the center to left of the party (still right of the Dems of course). It is that block that will select the next presidential candidate this year. Of course Romney will need the right to go to the polls but having Obama as an opponent should help that.

Interesting, I listen to a few minutes of Limbaugh from time to time and he is attacking Gingrich while still supporting Santorum. I even heard him defend Romney against a Gingrich attack. One gets the feeling Gingrich must have really violated some republican tenant in running for president this year.

The_Mad_Hatter · 2012-02-01T09:23:19.000Z

JeffL:

This is usually a very logical and true statement about an incumbent President. But the economy does suck and has sucked his entire term and unemployment will likely still be around 8.5% come election time. I really think people underestimate how simply most voters think about this issue: economy is good, my family is doing great, President is doing good. Economy sucks, my family (and friends etc.) have suffered, President sucks. A lot of voters hear everything else the way the kids in Charlie Brown cartoons hear adults ("blah blah blaaah blah blah.)

If the Republicans had come up with a real insurgent candidate, I’d agree. Since they only had lunatics to choose from though they went with Romney, and Romney is like a caricature of the people held most responsible for the economy tanking. He radiates “soulless corporate CEO”, right down to the hair and rigid grin. Romney can’t lead a fight against the Man - he is the Man. In the age of the Tea Party and the Occupy movements, I don’t see how that will win.

Houngan · 2012-02-01T09:24:29.000Z

JeffL:

I really have to laugh out loud as Gingrich tries to paint Romney as the “establishment” candidate and pontificates that the Republican establishment is afraid of him (Gingrich) because he is so anti-GOP establishment.

Right. Dude was in Congress, was Speaker, spends all his time selling books and selling speeches, selling his consulting signature to anyone who will pay him (including Freddie Mac,) panders to anyone of any persuasion if they’ll pay him six figures. He’s practically Ron Paul anti-establishment. Sheesh.

Romney actually is the “establishment” candidate now, since the establishment is driven for and by the ultra-wealthy. Too subtle a point for the campaign trail, but the entire process has become a joke at this point. The Democrats had a tiny window where they could have meaningfully reformed banking and finance and they blew it on idealism.

H.

Hugin · 2012-02-01T10:08:40.000Z

JeffL:

This is usually a very logical and true statement about an incumbent President. But the economy does suck and has sucked his entire term and unemployment will likely still be around 8.5% come election time. I really think people underestimate how simply most voters think about this issue: economy is good, my family is doing great, President is doing good. Economy sucks, my family (and friends etc.) have suffered, President sucks. A lot of voters hear everything else the way the kids in Charlie Brown cartoons hear adults ("blah blah blaaah blah blah.)

The key factor actually seems to be not so much how people perceive the economy, but where they perceive the economy is going. i.e., things can be bad, so long as people feel things are getting better.

Murbella · 2012-02-01T10:17:53.000Z

Tin Wisdom:

No. Huntsman tried that and it didn’t play too well to the primary crowds. Plus you have Gingrich doing his whole “liberal is a dirty word” thing right now, so even hinting of a moderate tenancy is showing weakness.

Yeah, but such is the nature of the primaries. This is where Obama actually has a big leg up - since he has no challenger for the nomination he doesn’t have to pander to the Far Left and then repudiate it later on (this time).

Yes, this made me laugh when Gingrich’s daughter did an interview where they talked about people not liking their father and calling him names. They said something to the effect of “They might even call our father a communist!” This is funny since calling people liberals, moderates, socialists or more is a key republican strategy and their father follows it to the letter.

JeffL · 2012-02-01T11:43:26.000Z

Hugin:

The key factor actually seems to be not so much how people perceive the economy, but where they perceive the economy is going. i.e., things can be bad, so long as people feel things are getting better.

True, but this is where a good campaigner (and I think the way Romney turned the Gingrich momentum around so quickly shows it may be a mistake to underestimate him) can keep the incumbent on their heels, in defensive mode all of the time. It is exactly what Clinton was able to do with Bush I - we were absolutely coming out of the recession (one which was MUCH less severe than this one, and one in which far fewer people felt the pain) but as Bush tried to tell the voters, hey, we’re coming out of this, things are getting better, Clinton was able to repeatedly ask the voters “Do you know anyone who is still looking for a job? Ask them how good they feel about the economy. Does it feel like it’s a lot better for you?” and that easily caught on. Again - in a much, much less painful and catastrophic economy.

I’m not saying that Obama doesn’t have a chance to win, just that I think it may be naive to think the voters will blame the Republicans for the last 4 years and vote with an attitude of “Well, the economy still sucks, unemployment has not really gone down while Obama was President, but I’ll vote for him again even though he wasn’t effective at fixing the problem because it really isn’t his problem and he didn’t have the power to fix it.” Any good campaign manager can make some major points when that is the opposing position.

Gallup had a little blurb today that said if Obama only won states where he has a net positive approval rating today, he’d lose in a landslide. That doesn’t indicate America is rallying behind the guy in any kind of significant way.

Lorini · 2012-02-01T11:53:34.000Z

Except Bush 1 promised no new taxes and then raised taxes. A lot of people were mad at him about that.

MatthewF · 2012-02-01T12:03:53.000Z

Lorini:

Except Bush 1 promised no new taxes and then raised taxes. A lot of people were mad at him about that.

That absolutely killed Bush I. I can still hear that sound bite in my head: “Read my lips: NO. NEW. TAXES.”

Mark_Asher · 2012-02-01T12:37:25.000Z

JeffL:

This is usually a very logical and true statement about an incumbent President. But the economy does suck and has sucked his entire term and unemployment will likely still be around 8.5% come election time. I really think people underestimate how simply most voters think about this issue: economy is good, my family is doing great, President is doing good. Economy sucks, my family (and friends etc.) have suffered, President sucks. A lot of voters hear everything else the way the kids in Charlie Brown cartoons hear adults ("blah blah blaaah blah blah.)

I think what it will come down to is which party does the best job of energizing its base. We know each party is going to get about 44% of the vote guaranteed. It will be a close election unless something unexpected happens – the economy collapses again, some crazy skeleton in Romney’s closet springs to life, maybe Ron Paul runs a third party challenge as a Libertarian, etc.

Jason_Townsend · 2012-02-01T12:59:28.000Z

What Jeff’s saying could easily be borne out - it’s simply too early to tell right now because the “undecideds” and other vast swathes of the electorate haven’t really begun whatever the hell their decision-making process is yet - there are no real numbers yet, in other words, which means predicting the fall election is at this point just down to economic determinism + super long range forcasts. You have as much reliability predicting the weekly weather forcast in November as the outcome of the general election.

I’m pessimistic because economic perceptions are so important and so likely to be unfavourable for Democrats; that tends to be a big tidal predictor that has to be factored in however things fall with “Bain Capital” or “4 years of failure” or Kenyan anticolonial sleeper cells or whatever crazy shit we’re talking about in August. If Europe drags the world economy down, we could see Romney run away with things a month or two before the election; I have a harder time imagining an Obama romp because of the moral and intellectual bankruptcy of Romney and his party suddenly smacking America in the forehead.