2017: Whither Democrats?


#1991

Ya, I don’t think you’re actually gonna have 50% though.
There’s gonna be some signficant overlap between the religious crazies and the bigots, so they aren’t purely additive.

The biggest wildcard might be the misogynists. Again, there’s almost certainly huge overlap with the other two groups, with a large addition beyond them… But I dunno how much hard data there is.


#1992

This part is not exactly true. the DNC does control whose on their ticket. Remember the whole Bernie isn’t a Democrat but he didn’t have to run as an Independent. They had a choice in that.

I don’t think full blown socialism is going to win the next election. Bernia is a socialist. He supports socialist policies, and sure you can bring that to the table but to the left of the Democratic party is basically socialism. I think that’s going to fly as well as telling everyone that those mining jobs aren’t coming back whether you want to be Nazis or Socialists.


#1993

Bernie isn’t a socialist per se. Read some writers from here - https://www.jacobinmag.com/.
They are socialists. Bernie is mostly an old style Democrat liberal (in the mode of FDR or Ted Kennedy.)
No one in the political realm is anti-capitalist or anti-free market.

I don’t know if the country is ready for that kind of liberal or not. By all accounts most millennials are, but since they don’t vote in any significant numbers not sure what impact they could have.


#1994

The younger crowd is starving for it


#1995

Kind of a silly conversation because we’ll never agree on the rubric, but I will say that the one thing that 2016 taught me is that there are MASSIVELY more racist and misogynistic asshats out there than I ever dreamed (feared) possible. I’m sure there is overlap, but I no longer underestimate their thundering numbers.


#1996

Bernie Sanders calls himself a Democratic Socialist.

And what does he mean by the term… this:

In 2006, Sanders himself defined what he meant by the term. He stated: “… I think it means the government has got to play a very important role in making sure that as a right of citizenship, all of our people have health care; that as a right, all of our kids, regardless of income, have quality child care, are able to go to college without going deeply into debt; that it means we do not allow large corporations and moneyed interests to destroy our environment; that we create a government in which it is not dominated by big money interest. I mean, to me, it means democracy, frankly.’’

The younger crowd still largely doesn’t vote, and even the numbers shows they went with Hillary despite the bickering. They can certainly bring their views to their table but the voting block is not large enough nor reliable enough to be able to take over the party. And if they do take over the party by throwing out everyone else in it, we will lose.


#1997

Yeah, this is true… especially if you go by my definition of racist, in that if you don’t give a shit about protecting the rights of other races, then you’re a racist.


#1998

A twitter realization in two tweets from whiz kid Harry Enten:

He looks at a key topline in the just-released Fox News poll that shows a 15-point lead for generic Democrats on a House ballot vs Generic Republicans.

“A bit of an outlier” he says. Then…

That’s gonna be a problem.


#1999

Assuming you’re comparing to the general election, the gap in men closed (it was +12 NAZ-er, GOP) and widened for women (it was +12 Soviet-er, Dem)

edit - that said, I suspect more than 50% of the undecideds will break Republican (incumbent). If their minds haven’t been made up by now, I suspect they’ll go the conservative/devil you know route.


#2000

So what is the problem? Please explain for those of us who haven’t taken polling 101. Women are more likely to vote Democratic but Trump woos them with his pussy grabbing powers come Election Day?


#2001

I don’t think the Democrats are ignoring them. Hell Hillary in her normal fashion co-opt most of Bernie’s positions when it looked liked it would politically expedient, and look how many Democrat candidates signed on to Bernie’s healthcare fantasy this year.

Arrendek. I guess I can say that if I as a live-long childless Republican living in the bluest state cast an electorally meaningless vote for Hillary Clinton anybody left of center should be able to do the same.

I’ve loathed Hillary for 30 years.I agonized for several minutes in the election booth. I thought about voting for Johnson. I really thought about not voting for President, cause several of my Republican friends and family assured me that President Trump would be different than candidate Trump and don’t forget the Supreme Court. But at the end, it actually wasn’t that hard a choice, a very flawed Hillary Clinton or turn the fucking nuclear launch codes over to an insane guy.

Hell, I don’t even have worry about telling my kids who did you vote for when American turned to shit.


#2002

That is a huge split. Women vote more than men do by a small amount…and this percentage favoring a generic Democrat on a congressional ballot is more than the percentages seen in final exits from 2016 in national voting.

We also know that there’s usually a pretty significant portion of the electorate who really like to call themselves “Independent” even though they aren’t. Here we’re seeing only a small-ish pool of independents, and 59% of women saying they prefer a Democrat, which makes that a pretty big concern.

And more importantly, having this poll not be an outlier, but being in line with another respected pollster makes this seem like the state of play a little more.

Finally, the current average on that generic ballot is about 13.5%. That’s ahead of where we were in our last three big “wave” elections, in 2002, 2006, and 2010, where about 9-10.5% was the standard preference for the party waved in during in the year before the election.


#2003

#2004

I guess Dems have decided that to beat Republicans, we’re gonna have to be more racist.


#2005

Oh Christ no. Army you have, not the army you want. Let’s let Democrat candidates in conservative leaning border states have a little more slack in that noose being preparing for them for failing to adhere perfectly to every conceivable progressive value before we string them up.


#2006

Agreed. If they have to be somewhat moderate to run but overall hold Democratic principals, let them… even if sanctuary cities in the midwest and south seems to make more sense as a Republican viewpoint… states above federal… right? And legal status is not the same as race.


#2007

Keep in mind, what are referred to as sanctuary cities are not actually “sanctuaries” in the sense of being safe harbors. ICE can still enter a sanctuary city and detain/deport people. A “sanctuary city” is simply a city that has decided that it’s law enforcement won’t do ICE’s job for them, by detaining people for ICE.

I’m strongly opposed to Trump’s immigration idiocy and to the exploitation of outrage over “sanctuary cities” but at the same time, I don’t consider sanctuary cities to be a cross I want to die on. I actually consider the entire sanctuary city issue to be more cosmetic than anything. For liberals, it’s a symbol of support for oppressed immigrants (more symbolic than real IMO) and for the right, it’s a talking point to exploit. Having Democratic governors/legislators who will do a better job on things like labor law enforcement and immigration reform is a much bigger benefit than sanctuary cities, IMO.


#2008

I’d be fine with that if that’s what Northam was doing, but it isn’t. He’s trying to not scare off white identity voters (who aren’t going to vote for a Democrat in any event) at the expense of turning off his base. It’s more Clintonian chickenshit triangulation and I hope he loses just for being a bad politician.

Stop granting the Republican’s fucking premise, Democrats. You can’t out-nationalism them.


#2009

Really? You want Gillespie? Out of what, pique? Dude, seriously.


#2010

I understand what a sanctuary city means. It has to do with local resources working with federal. I didn’t misspeak. Again, how we treat someone’s legal status is not the same as racism. The statements imply racism is autolinked with immigration issues. I don’t share that view.