2017: Whither Democrats?


#2052

It’s going to be super-tight, and it really never needed to be.


#2054

Retirements shine spotlight on GOP term limits for chairs - The Hill

I forgot that the House Rs imposed this on themselves.


#2055

It may have been stated elsewhere in the thread, but it bears repeating as to why the anticipated legislative outcomes in NJ and WA are so important.

Conservatives/reactionaries/GOP are playing on a bigger board than their counterparts.

The nightmare, and why winning control of state legislatures for Democrats is important, is to prevent the GOP from winning enough states to call a Constitutional Convention and to ratify changes to the Constitution that we will have to live with for the rest of our lives.

Article V of the Constitution lays out two routes for changing the law of the land: An amendment can be proposed by Congress or by a constitutional convention that is convened by two-thirds of the states (34). Either way, three-fourths of the states (38) have to ratify it. Previously, changes to the country’s founding document have been achieved by the first process.

The GOP has full control in 26 states. That will likely change tonight, but consider their strategy.

This election is important, the 2020 General Election even more so, but not for the reasons some may think. While many will focus on the top of the ticket, the fight for the Governor’s mansions and state houses is equally important. Which ever party controls the legislature in a state will be able to redraw the Congressional and legislative district lines in that state for the 2022 elections. An important factor in redistricting is the 2020 Census count. Republicans are starving the US Census bureau of funds in an effort to engineer a count that works to their political advantage.

Should the GOP increase their control of state legislatures in 2020 they will redraw the electoral maps to their advantage prior to the 2022 elections. With that advantage, and continued efforts to restrict the ability of younger voters and non-white voters to cast their ballots, the GOP can leverage victories in more legislative districts, better positioning them to launch their long-term goal of rewriting the Constitution in 2023.

I try not to be an alarmist as I am by nature an optimist and I don’t believe that they will succeed. Their momentum appears to have stalled according to this article by a colleague of mine.

But as a strategy gamer and a practitioner of politics, their strategy seems obvious to me and one I’m dedicated to defeating. So I can hold my nose and vote for the less than optimal democratic candidate because this is a numbers game. And because it isn’t about me.


#2056

Arranging for Constitutional Convention could be a double edged sword. As your pal’s Prospect article notes, after the convention garners the needed number of states, it could take a few years to get it set up and actually hold it. If the Dems happen to generally be in power at that point (you know, if they have licked the gerrymandering, voter suppression issues, etc.) they could finally implement the rights to mandatory abortions, marriage of humans and dogs (or bridges), abolishment of nuclear weapons, suffrage of ponies, establishment of an Earth-humping pagan witch state religion, and mandatory sterilization of white people, as has been our agenda – I mean, their agenda – since the 1960s. A Convention is risky for both sides, is what I’m saying, it’s going All In during a game of America Hold-Em.


#2057

Frank LoBiondo retiring. Big pickup chance for Democrats. He’s been in the House since he came in as part of the Contract with America wave in 1994. Obama won his district by 8 points. Trump won it by 4 last year.

Goes from safe Republican to tossup.


#2058

Jesus fuck yesssss

Err I mean hello everyone how are you


#2059

Scalia was terrified by the idea of a Constitutional Convention and with good reason.

We’d lose most of the Bill of Rights regardless of who was in power.


#2060

Yes, a Constitution written by partisan hacks, rather than intellectuals with a deep commitment to liberty would be a disaster.

Not only would their resulting government fail to understand the implications of it’s design, but it would almost certainly fail to function at all in any real sense, given that most of its contributors would have no real grasp of governance at all.


#2061

NJ state senator (and potential rising star in the party) Jeff Van Drew interested in running. George Norcross – who wields a ton of power in South Jersey Democratic circles – is openly supporting that.

So that’s a really quick coalescence to a single candidate on the Democratic side already.

Flip that sucker.


#2062

#2063

No it’s fine because, see, Gillespie didn’t embrace me enough. Also did I tell you how much I won the election by? No one expected that. No one at all. Except me, because I’m so much smarter than the failing media. Remember how cool that was, crushing those guys in the primaries? Remember Little Marco and Tired Jeb? I remember. I have the best memory in the world, except of course what I mean by that is it’s pretty good.


#2064

Trump has no coat tails in most states…he has slime trails, though.


#2065

#2066

… well, snap.


#2067

Westchester County, on the board.


#2068

That’s Helena goddamn Montana.

And Wilmot Collins isn’t just the first black mayor elected in the entire state’s history. He’s also a refugee from Liberia.


#2069

Huzzah! Rob just got Astori-NO’d.


#2070

Fun fact, also the first black man to ever visit the state of Montana.


#2071

This Times article buries a couple of interesting nuggets:

Representative Ben Ray Luján of New Mexico, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said he had spent Tuesday evening calling potential House candidates and urging them to watch the returns, telling them: “I just want to encourage you to turn on the television, if it’s not already on.”

“Democrats down there were very aggressive about expanding their map and recruiting strong candidates, even where they were told they couldn’t win,” Mr. Luján said of Virginia. “We’re going to make our Republican colleagues fight for every inch.”

And…

In the Senate, too, Democrats are seeking to expand the map. Facing a narrow path to a majority, they are strenuously wooing Phil Bredesen, a former Tennessee governor, to run for the seat that Senator Bob Corker is vacating. Mr. Bredesen has been courted personally by Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the minority leader, as well as several former governors who now serve in the Senate, including Mark Warner of Virginia, according to Democrats briefed on the overtures. And the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee commissioned a poll aimed at coaxing Mr. Bredesen to run.

Mr. Bredesen is in Washington this week for meetings and is said to be nearing a decision.

Two weeks ago I’d have thought Bredesen had no chance at all in Tennessee to replace Corker.

Today I’m all “Well…”


#2072

Ummm

https://twitter.com/kashanacauley/status/928383083006455808