rowe33
4816
Wow, that really sucks, was looking forward to him being mayor right before we move nearby.
I don’t think we’ve showcased this fellow yet, but he is definitely “Whither Democrats” this year:
Richard Ojeda
Scroll up about five days. :)
New DCCC ad is hilarious, and to the point.
Sorry, guess I missed it. When we get into stupid-shit arguments about what a poster meant and start shouting at each other here, I just start scrolling.
Ojeda’s a fascinating candidate. What was interesting is that he did fairly poorly in the Siena/NYT live poll a week or so ago, with the main issue on him seeming to be a lack of name recognition in his district.
I’m seeing that a lot – candidates who seem to attract a TON of interest on social media in that bubble being disproportionately unknown in their own district.
For instance, that amazing ad for MJ Hegar a few months ago? The “Doors” commercial about her service and combat injuries as a pilot? Great ad.
Siena/NYT is polling her district right now, and she’s getting crushed. Main issue besides the district having a strong-ish Republican lean built in?
Name recognition.
Same thing we saw over the summer with Jess Phoenix, the volcano scientist, and with Renato Mariotti, the ex-prosecutor who was running for IL attorney general: super well-known, strong presence in social media, and yet completely unknown with their local constituency (who almost seemed at times to resist and resent the national publicity paid to the candidate). Both Jess and Renato single-digit vote percentages in Democratic primaries.
Enidigm
4824
TX-31 is one of the deep red hearts of Texas and voting for a Democrat is the equivalent of treason to a not small minority of conservatives. Cedar Park and Leander are like the frontier for the conservative urban cowboys escaping the liberal hells of Austin. I’m not sure if name recognition would be enough to escape the stigma of being a Democrat. OTOH, the southernmost part has been caught in the runaway real estate market of Austin, and perhaps more typically"Austin" people have moved in.
Yes, understood. I hardly expected her to win. A good fight would’ve been awesome to see.
That still has little to do with her polling in the 30s and getting in the low 50s for name recognition, however.
Cook political has TX-31 lean Republican and Hegar is within 4 points of Carter.
Timex
4827
I still feel like the Dems are gonna fail to take the house, and we’re gonna be turbo fucked as the GOP just totally opens up the faucet on overt corruption and destruction of our democratic institutions.
Enidigm
4828
Your point about the disconnect between social media enthusiasm and local politics is noted, and is going to set up a lot of disappointment for non-local people following. Eventually all the old codgers will be gone, and everything will functionally be non-local, but we’re not there yet.
I’m sitting here trying to figure out how to increase her exposure, and there’s nothing obvious coming to mind. I hate say it but probably a very strong online presence on Facebook might be her best chance, like throw the SEO and money at that, somehow pierce the conservative bubble that way.
Or some folks recognize his name as “Mexican”.
I thought about that. Interesting to note that he pronounces his name “O-jedda” and not “O-heeda” or “O-hayda” as it’s typically pronouced. And it makes you wonder if the pollsters were using that pronunciation of his name when interviewing repondents.
Yeah, I noticed how he pronounced it in the video you posted previously. I had never heard that pronunciation before - I wonder if someone in his family history changed it to get away from the Spanish-ness.
That was my thought. Sounds like his family’s been in coal country for generations, so back in some older time the locals used that and it stuck.
What are you basing that on?
I’m not quite that pessimistic, but the pundits on Morning Joe were speculating that the backlash against Kavanaugh may mobilize Republicans to get out and vote. I think the anger level is already at 11 for Democrats. Trump’s political instincts are pretty damn good, and the fact that he felt it was a good time to go out and attack and mock Professor Ford and after remaining uncharacteristically quiet isn’t good.
Which explains his stellar approval rating given the structural favorability of the economy.
(He has only one instinct. It can’t always be ‘good’ politically.)
I’m sure the (sham) FBI investigation hasn’t turned up anything, and the WH and Senate would know as the FBI turn those in as they’re completed. That probably explains trump’s attack.
And yes I’ve seen Republican enthusiasm increasing in the polling even before the BK hearing - but it remains to be seen if educated suburban white women abandon the Republican party in significant numbers.
