Most of those executive actions turn out to be limited in scope and ultimately ephemeral in that they can be wiped out with a signature. The benefits of taking the House are simply in limiting the damage that can be done by Republicans rather than any big wins it enables for the Dems.
The tax cuts are done. You can’t take them back without some extraordinary turn of events.
Lots of shitty stories today based on the Gallup poll seeming to show that Kavanaugh hearings have riled up and energized the GOP base.
Y’all looked like you needed some good news.
Cook Political Report to the rescue.
Timex
4859
If they control the house, they will be able to investigate all of these things fully, in the public eye, and subpoena witnesses.
Yes, but: Republican voters don’t care, as we’re seeing right now. The House holds hearings, discovers bad stuff, then…? Indeed, I’m wondering why the Administration can’t just ignore the subpoenas. Without the credible threat of impeachment or prosecution, why not?
Democratic house can do something as simple as getting the President’s tax returns. If he blocks or tries to stop them, that’s going to be a politically untenable issue for him.
Timex
4862
Yeah, if it turns out that the American people don’t care once they start seeing the truth of some of this stuff, well that’s on us.
But until the Democrats control one of the houses of Congress, we are never going to learn the truth of any of this.
JoshL
4863
Yet, the 538 forecast has gone from 80.7% chance the Dems take the house a month ago to 75.1% today. Gives me a sinking feeling.
Yeah, we’ve seen this film before.
I’d like to believe that, but I don’t see what stops him. If there is no will in the Senate to convict him, he can do what he wants.
ShivaX
4866
But he can’t pass legislation, which is kind of important.
And the House can subpoena his tax returns directly from the IRS. And the President would have to actively step in and issue a block to prevent that, and on some ground that would need to imply national security.
Yes, that’s the way it works when the norms are observed. But if Trump orders them not to respond to a subpoena, what happens? Say it goes to a court, and the court finds for Congress, and it gets booted uphill to SCOTUS, and they affirm the decision, and then Trump does his best Andrew Jackson impersonation, e.g. Mister Roberts has made his decision, now let him enforce it. Then what?
I just don’t know if there’s a bottom to the GOP.
Yes, it is. Granted.
Oghier
4870
Hrmm. I see it as Trump refusing to let the IRS turn them over, then the SC eventually backs him 5-4. Or maybe he loses the SC case, but still refuses, citing Kavanaugh’s blistering dissent.
magnet
4871
Then the New York Department of Taxation and Finance tells Trump to pound sand, and sends his return to Congress.
…,and Congress has some fun with them, but Republican voters don’t care, and Republican Senators don’t care, and nothing happens. I think I said that up there somewhere.
magnet
4873
The whole idea that Trump can do whatever he wants without political consequences is belied by our own assumption that Democrats would control the House for the first time since 2011.
Stop being so logical. We’re trying to mope here.
Terrible round of senate polling for Heidi Heitkamp in the just-released Fox News poll.
She looks to be toast in North Dakota.
Timex
4875
I believe that as more and more information comes out, the GOP will lose more and more influence. There are partisan voters who will in fact have a line they won’t cross. At some point, Trump’s total disregard for the law will push everyone away except for the 30% that support him no matter what.
But fuck those people. They don’t matter.
Oghier
4876
P&R does veer between discussion, venting and group therapy at times ;)
I do appreciate your optimism, and I recognize that it’s fact-based.
