Dems in disarray – news at 11

It’s interesting, by the way, what utter contempt for the electorate these narratives indicate. Deserved, perhaps, but still…

Psst, that’s an opinion editorial by a conservative writer.

Come on, I can’t actually be expected to read everything people link around here…

More ‘Dems in disarray’ goodness!

How about that Joe Manchin vote for Kavanaugh? Having those “centrist” democrats really helped out a ton.

Manchin is there when we need him. In this case his vote didn’t matter, so might as well let him do what it takes to get re-elected.

(Note, I’m using “you” generically.)

As I mentioned in the SCOTUS thread, Mancin and every other conservative Democrat matter if you want Democrats to be the majority in the Senate (as we’ve seen, without it they’re pretty much powerless.) If you want Democrats to hold committee chairs, if you want Democrats to have subpoena powers, if you want Democrats to block legislation that harms issues you care about, then Democrats need those Senators. There is zero chance any progressive Democrat from West Virginia or North Dakota or even Indiana is getting elected within the foreseeable future. Yes, those Senators are going to result in negative outcomes sometimes, but it is far better than the alternative, which are bad outcomes every time. There are no moderate Republicans needs to be seared into the brain of anyone who opposes GOP ideology.

Progressives need to stop looking towards politics as full affirmation of their beliefs. Politicians need not hold 100% of everything you believe in to earn a vote. They may not agree with every policy prescription you desire, but they are more likely to move towards those positions than any Republican who are demonstrably hostile to any every issue you value.

Progressives need to start electing local leaders. County boards, state senators and representatives. They (we) might not like the system we have, but voting third party or refusing to vote not only results in not getting your preferred policy outcomes, they will lose ground. That’s why Roe v Wade is now in jeopardy. That’s why environmental protections are going to be reversed and blocked. That’s why consumer and labor protections have eroded. The system cannot change from the top down. That’s hasn’t worked, ever, and it’s not going to start working now.

The reactionary right may be brainwashed from their right wing media bubble, but the left needs to resist magical thinking (and I’m as guilty as anyone of falling into that trap too.)

Yeah. I think Trump won Manchin’s state by 40 or 50 points. Imagine what an R senator replacement would be like in that state. If the left kicks him out I guess we’ll find out but I sure don’t want to.

So much this to the people who don’t think tactically. Notice that Manchin didn’t provide the deciding vote for confirmation-- even without it Kavanaugh had enough purely Republican votes to have Pence sweep in and put the number over 50. His vote was solely to save his seat for himself, and more importantly for the nation, for the Dems in the Senate.

Technically, the advantage manchin gives is that he would help move things towards a democratic leader of the Senate.

In terms of actual votes, he’s essentially a moderate Republican.

But it’s West Virginia.

Yes, it’s West Virginia. It’s a shame their politics are terrible, because it is genuinely beautiful country.

Mountaintop removal mining should fix that soon.

That… is sadly all too true.

The nightmare scenario:

Need to get all the way to D+9 to overcome gerrymandering for sure.

On a recent 538 podcast, they said something interesting in this regard:

  • “Moderate” Republican Collins votes with Trump 80% of the time
  • “Moderate” Democrat Manchin votes with Trump 60% of the time

Moderate Dems are actual moderates. Moderate Republicans are basically Republicans.

Manchin said he wouldn’t be the 50th vote.

And, until there’s a ruling against blatant partisan gerrymandering (which ain’t gonna happen NOW), we need to win more state legislatures.

Unfortunately, the first half of your sentence makes the second almost impossible.

Says the guy who is going to go vote in a literally admittedly racist, court-banned gerrymandered Congressional map in a few weeks cuz the courts were too fucking cowardly to force them to fix it in time.

Not even remotely true.

Gerrymandering is based on the presumption that only a small percentage of the eligible voters actually vote.

If voter turnout increases by only a small percentage, gerrymandering backfires.