This is literally a recipe for the destruction of democracy, because of the Dunning-Kruger effect. Smart people are willing to admit that they’re not perfectly informed, and hence are likely to stay away from the polls because they feel they’re not qualified.
Stupid people, on the other hand, think they’re informed just fine - after all, Sean and Donnie tell them everything they need to know.
The best lack all conviction while the worst burn with passionate intensity, etc.
Quaro
4999
Blyth had a high profile talking about why Trump won right after the election and his presentation of it is very polished as he’s given it many times, but I think his economic anxiety argument has gotten weaker over time. Thinking of stuff like this:
Or this article talking with Trump supporters:
Confession: did not listen to that particular podcast so may not be directly relevant.
In the context of the podcast I posted, I mostly care about his accent being lovely to listen to, while he asks questions.
Dunning-Kruger effect is interesting, hadn’t really been aware of it.
That said there is a high correlation between education and turnout. While I haven’t seen data that shows that people with a college degree are more informed than just a high school education, I’d be surprised if that wasn’t the case.
Sharpe
5002
Wow, Triggercut, that was a truly great podcast. Among many other things, I think I finally understand McCullough’s point about how fiscal policy caused the recessions of 1979 and 1981. When you realize that was in part connected to Jimmy Carter’s moralist (not economic) anti-Keynesian viewpoint, it makes a lot of the stuff that happened during my middle school years make sense. I had only the vaguest sense of it at the time and later reading tends to get obscured by Reagan hagiography and/or liberals trying to rehabilitate Carter.
I’ve long agreed with the liberal view that Carter got hammered for the wrong reasons, but that podcast makes a good case that there were other, separate reasons for Carter to be considered the first neo-liberal President and a harbinger of the Clintons (along my realization over the last few years that Bill Clinton’s Presidency was far less liberal than it was perceived). Carter and Reagan were still both far better Presidents than Reagan, Trump (shudder) or the Bushes, but I do now have a better understanding why the left wing of the Democratic party (which includes me) was so starved for true liberal alternatives, which led to the rise of Bernie.
Anyhow, great podcast. I encourage all to listen to it.
Timex
5004
Gop can’t be happy about that age breakdown.
Menzo
5005
GOP probably, and likely correctly, assumes most of them won’t actually vote.
Timex
5006
Maybe, but getting registered is a fairly big chunk of the effort.
It’s certainly a fantastic start. Now let’s GotV!
Morning Consult National Tracking Poll crosstabs
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-5a76-dc50-affe-5ef639c30001
I found these results pretty remarkable (1st image); it’s like that across all demographics (not counting ideology where it breaks down as you would expect.) There is one demo Republicans (barely) lead, 2nd image. For anyone interested in the “Kavanaugh” affect, those questions start on p 229 (it’s not as positive for Republicans as you might expect given the media narrative.)
The three generic ballot polls that were mostly post-Kavanaugh/Dr. Ford testimony on Wednesday the 3rd: D +13, D +12, D +10.
Psst, don’t tell the NYT that.
I’m not sure the Times is wrong. Kavanaugh definitely seems to have helped GOP senate candidates in TN, TX, and Nevada so far. And likely also in North Dakota. And it has tightened some statewide gubernatorial races.
Where it’s had a negative effect is in congressional districts, because that where even a fired up GOP base is running into a blue wave of fired up Democrats more often.
They want to win Daddy Trump’s love back, so he stops saying mean things about them.
Alstein
5015
Even if there’s a bump in red states some, the anger will be around 2 years later, a Republican Senate will be there to be a whipping boy for Dems- taking back the Senate in 2020 is very doable if the Dems can keep the Republicans under 52.
Yep, fully agree. The map in 2020 is a lot more favorable to Democrats.
