2017: Whither Democrats?

Indeed. And Dems probably won’t take the Senate either. But if we do, we don’t need Beto. We just need Heitkamp, Rosen, McCaskill, Sinema, and Nelson, in order of decreasing vulnerability. Since results tend to track together, if Heitkamp can keep her seat, there’s a decent chance Dems gain the Senate.

538 still only gives Cruz a 78% chance. That’s only marginally better than Clinton had. We should expect a Cruz win, but it’s not quite written in stone yet.

The interesting thing about Texas is that we have had a record number of people register to vote. 1.7 million new voters, and the typical midterm has about 5 million votes cast. If cruz is 8% ahead in the usual polls, that’s about a 400k advantage. Those 1.7 million new voters don’t get polled, per the reports I’ve heard/read, so they are a big wild card. Given that the old people who vote GOP are already registered, I think it’s reasonable to assume the 1.7 million new folks will swing Dem overall. Will there be a 400k advatange in the new voters for Beto? Dunno, that’s why we vote. I anticipate cruz winning, but I don’t in any way think it’s a done deal or as large a margin for cruz as the polls are showing.

If Dems take the Senate it will be because either Beto, Breseden, or Hetikamp won unexpectedly, either because of a big national shift or a major gaff/scandal. The odds on taking the Senate are long, but supporting these long-odds races is the only chance to limit the GOP’s overhaul of the judiciary. There’s also a lot of value in building an organization and getting Democrats energized in Texas, more so than in TN or ND, in all likelihood.

Even if the polls aren’t counting them at all, that group would have to all vote and swing towards Beto 63-37 or so to make up the 400k. That would make them 34 points more democratic than the rest of the state, a huge swing. And registered voters typically only turn out at what 50%? So then you need to get about 75% of the actual new voters.

Something big has to change for Beto to win. It possible that can happen, but realistically those extra voters only slightly increase the odds that a positive swing towards Beto is enough.

Everything you say is true. But polls have a margin of error, as we so painfully found out in 2016, and voter engagement, which is high for Beto and meh for cruz, also matters, as we found out in 2016. As I said, I anticipate cruz winning, by a slim margin, but I’ll be eagerly watching the returns.

Maybe Beto could pull the ol’ Abraham Lincoln ‘lose the Senate race and then become President two years later’ trick. Hey, ya never know!

100 years later students will be forced to watch the Cruz/Beto debates, triggering a spike in teen suicides

Polls in 2016 were about as accurate as they’ve always been. Trump only outperformed national polling by 1-2 points, and swing state polling by 2-3 points on average. (It is entirely expected for these two outperformances to track together.) He also benefited from a demographic advantage in the Electoral College. Beto is down an average of about 6 points in current polls and has to rely on the popular vote. He’s got a chance, and I will be out on my street cheering if he wins, but it’s pretty unlikely unless James Comey parachutes into Texas to open a new Cruz investigation at the last minute.

Too soon.

I see Beto speak, and he seems like such a strong candidate. So part of me gets my hopes up.
But it’s Texas. He’s gonna lose. And that’s sad.

Every time you start to feel hope *for humanity, remember that there are millions of people in this country who look at Ted Cruz and say to themselves, “Yeah, there’s a guy I’d like to vote for.”

Cruz is going to win, it would be shocking if the polls are that far off.
I think a good benchmark for Beto is to get more than 44% of the vote (which for a statewide election hasn’t happened for any TX Democrat in a couple decades I think) and/or keep the margin of victory to 5-6%. At the end of the day though, even if that comes to pass, ‘moral’ victories don’t get a vote when confirming judges. I think ultimately Texas is going to be Democrat’s ‘white whale’ - it’s probably going to be a long time before Texas becomes even slightly purple (according to google, that color would be lilac).

There is also I think a bit of a negative to Beto-mania. While his fund raising has been impressive (which also helps other Democrats in the state), I wonder how much the attention that he’s garnered has hurt Democrats in other red states. Kinda hard to measure I guess.

There is a lesson to be learned here though: Authenticity is a good trait to have in a politician.

Unless that is you’re a Republican politician:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1052232865528901632
https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1052186622765219840
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1052306475501146114

Interesting tidbit. Spending doesn’t correlate strongly with winning an election, but there is a correlation between donations and winning elections.

I don’t think he will win, but I am an pessimist for a reason. Pessimist can be pleasantly surprised. And damnit, I want to be pleasantly surprised.

depressed

Meanwhile

Now if, today, I were to say I have French in my ancestry, I likely would be telling the truth. If I were to say, I am an American of Irish descent, or that I had Irish ancestors, this also would be true. However, if I were to say, “I am Irish,” that would be untrue. And if I were to say, “Bonjour, mes amis! Je suis Normand!”, that also would be untrue. Thus, when Senator Professor Warren says, and when DNA proves, that she has some Native American ancestry, she is telling the truth. If she ever said, “I am a Native American,” which she never has said, although many people including the president* have said it for her, that would be untrue. I don’t know why so many people have a problem understanding this. It’s almost as though they don’t want to understand it, but that can’t be right.

It’s long past time for Democratic candidates, and the party they represent, to stop worrying about how the Republicans and their flying-monkey base will react to what those Democratic candidates do or say.

Hey look, Pierce even evoked my favorite Ulysses Grant anecdote in the same context as I did a few days back!

1491 is a very good book. Great summary of a ton of scholarly research on civilization in North and South America before significant European contact. I learned a ton and was very sad that almost none of it was taught in school.

CNN (I think it was) had a story the other day about how Trump has done a totally unprecedented amount of re-election fundraising for this part of the cycle. It mentioned two reasons why most sitting 1st-term presidents do not put any effort into their own re-election fundraising until after the midterms: 1) they want to at least look like they are doing the job of being president; 2) they believe any dollar they raise is a dollar that is not donated to a congressional midterm election campaign.

Trump obviously has no qualms about #1; we’ll see soon how much impact #2 has on the midterms.

Keep in mind, it’s been a number of years since I read Freakamonics, but I believe the number of donations was more important than the size. It was a measure of general enthusiasm.

And I wouldn’t be surprised if that enthusiasm was less important during years that you aren’t running for office, as opposed to the years that people can actual vote for you.

That being said, some research has shown when some does a favor for you, that person likes you more. Not that you like them more, no, the person doing the favor ends up like you more! The thinking is that you wouldn’t do someone a favor unless you liked them, so if you did someone a favor, you must like them. A weird feedback loop.

I could see that happening in politics. If you donate money, you must agree with them, otherwise you wouldn’t have donated money. So you are more likely to go out and vote for them. That’s just a hypothesis.

When I finish it (I am probably 2/3rds thru it) I figure to post my thoughts in the book thread and se what people think of it. Thanks for the reply. I too am learning much more than I thought I would.

I’m thinking our governor might be in trouble, and that stupid transportation tax is not helping.

5 point lead.