Could be. I dunno.
Edit: Yes, you’re right.
So far, neither Peltola’s lead nor Tshibaka’s appears to be large enough to give either a victory with just first-choice votes counted. According to Alaska’s new ranked choice voting rules, that would require the winner to receive more than half of the first-choice votes. Whether either incumbent retains her seat will depend on second-choice votes, which will be tallied Nov. 23.
I woke up to better news than I expected. I went to bed early last night because I couldn’t stand to watch the returns. Still, losing the House is troubling. It means with legislature not much will get done over the next two years.
DeathSantis looming in '24 is scary. Neil Young needs to write a song about Florida now.
I think we will lose it, but we haven’t lost it yet.
So the people who were complaining about partisan R polls flooding into polling aggregators like RCP to skew the projections were maybe right?
From an earlier edition I think, still funny
Hey, Ammon Bundy is NOT the governor of my state this morning. That’s cause for celebration, and everything else is just gravy.
A +2 house majority is probably not enough to stop Ukraine funding, thankfully
Listening to NPR this morning, they had a republican strategist on who laid out the good and the bad of last night:
The good: Republicans now have a “Trump Problem” in that most of his candidates lost, and the party being saddled with him is going to make it hard for them to win going forward, but it’s also hard to get rid of him. Republican infighting sounds delicious.
The bad: DeSantis performed really well and “showed a pathway to national success” for the republican party. [editor: Yuck!]
Locally, we’re waiting on referendum results on the millionaire tax (additional 4% state income tax on that portion of annual taxable income exceeding $1 million), and a law to allow undocumented individuals to get a drivers license. Both are currently ahead by a few %, but not decisively enough to call.
When are the last results expected to be known?
I’m hearing that, too, but I don’t really get it. Desantis’ strategy for Florida was executive shitposting to own the libs. I can’t really see that working at the national level. It’s not like FL will be a contested state in 2024.
We probably won’t know about GA Senate race for a month. Everything else should be settled over the next 24 hours,
Well, I was way off on my predictions for yesterday, so take this with a grain of salt. But I am so rooting for DeSantis, I might contribute to his election campaign, write glowing comments on every conservative site, name my next dog after him.
Because I am so certain that if he were to actually get nominated by the GOP in '24, Trump would blow up the Republican Party. He’d do everything in his power to destroy them, and given the effectiveness of his half-hearted efforts to destroy the Georgian senatorial candidates in '20, I’m betting we would clean house.
Now if Trump were to drop dead, and then DeSantis got nominated in '24, then I’d be worried.
I’m also morbidly curious about the dental insurance and alcohol licensing ones, because those kind of special-interest slapfights are always kind of amusing to me. I also strongly dislike being made to decide those kinds of technical details, as a voter. (Though I voted for both of them, because I guess they seemed better?) IIRC the nurse staffing one from a couple years back failed. I wonder if that would have had any effect on the pandemic…
Menzo
1926
If he’s alive, this is a good prediction, but I’m also pretty sure DeSantis would weather it and win, so be careful what you wish for.
The scale of DeSantis’ win will bring him a lot more attention. Which is why I expect Trump to announce his candidacy in the next 72 hours.
The upcoming fight will be interesting to watch.
Huh. I fully expected a 2010 style shellacking. Was dreading looking at results.
So granted, it was a republican strategist talking, and my understanding is that the latinX vote in FL is really more the Cuban vote, which doesn’t generalize well to the rest of the latinX population in the US.
But hey, if they are convinced it does, and he runs nationally and flops, I’m OK with that.
Menzo
1929
DeSantis should scare all Democrats. He is a more palatable Trump and hasn’t been prone to making dumb political mistakes.
Short of a massive scandal I think he beats any Dem in 2024.
I’m really not getting how Desantis is more than a Florida Fiefdom kind of guy. I don’t think his cruelty and shitposting flies in any of the other swing states (which Florida seems to no longer be…).
It could also be due to likely voter screens in polls failing. Likely voter screens, to wildly oversimplify, reweight polls to reflect who historically actually shows up on election day, rather what voters say they are going to do. Which works well in normal elections.
But if it’s not a normal election and who shows up at the polls this election is actually changing from the previous one, then applying a likely voter screen to a poll can provide a misleading impression.
Disclaimer: I have paid zero attention to polling this cycle and may have no idea what I’m talking about.
