Alstein
1932
fae/faer seems to be the trend these days…
I’m really looking forward to the Nate Silver 538 podcast where they talk about how 80/20 predictions can still come up 20%, and how the model can’t fail us, we can only fail to understand probability.
Also, his model this time 'round incorporated “expert opinions” all of which thought “wave elections for the non-incumbent party always happen, so will happen again”. His “simple” model that only relied on polls is closer to the results so far.
As for poll weighting, the 538 model knows which polls skew in what direction and subtracts “house effects”, so a good model can handle skewed polls, as long as they have some consistent skew. If they only do the special sauce skewing in the few weeks before the election, I could imagine that causing more problems because it’s hard to adjust.
Menzo
1934
Have you met the new Republican Party? Cruelty is applauded as long as it’s directed to non-whites.
Yeah, but I also see that it’s being rejected in States like my own. The northeast isn’t much interested in the bullshit anymore. FAFO and all that.
Timex
1936
DeSantis got a lot of support from Hispanics, and won by a pretty massive margin.
Honestly, simply being able to win Florida by that kind of huge 20 point margin is a big deal in the Presidential election.
Menzo
1937
Republicans don’t care about winning the NE. There are no battleground states there.
I’m glad you think Pennsylvania is no longer a battleground State.
Menzo
1940
Trump lost PA by 80k votes in ‘20. DeSantis picks that up easy.
Timex
1942
The GOP ditching Trump and switching to someone like DeSantis would make them an infinitely stronger party in terms of electoral appeal.
The downside of that is that they are still likely fucked up, and will do bad things.
The upside of that is that fuck Trump and having Trump removed from the party will be a good thing in terms of the safety of the world. For all of DeSantis’ bullshit, he did in fact serve in the military, and I do not believe he is a literal traitor autocrat like Trump. A very low bar, I know, but still, that’s where we are today.
Good news is that even if the GOP gets the balls to abandon Trump (I’m skeptical they will), he will burn that fucking house down while being dragged out the door.
Steve Chabot lost, but my bet is that he will be back in the House next election. The only measure of sanity in Ohio redistricting was the one republican State Supreme Court Justice with the backbone to keep making the republican-majority “independent” redistricting commission go back and re-draw their gerrymandered proposals. She did not (could not?) run again, and all 3 court seats up this cycle went to republicans.
Ohio republicans are now free to gerrymander away, once again.
You guys laughing at Ron “Troll the Libs” DeSantis are killing me. Remember laughing at Trump? Remember how some people even primaried for Trump because they were so sure it would be a grenade in the GOP race?
Look, maybe he’s the literal antichrist or something and will be able to take the world by storm, but he’s also from Florida. I’m not convinced anyone in the rest of the country is all that keen on voting for a guy from Florida.
But also, we have a name for people like this around here that are in your misery even after a pretty good day. It’s called Negadelphia. Every time the local sports teams succeed, there are these jabronis that call the stations again and again bitching and moaning about how awful things are. Take a step back. Enjoy the moment. It’s two years away. You have no clue what’s going to happen between now and then. Relax.
Is anybody laughing at Desantis?
He’s going to appeal to the kind of conservative Republican voter who is mostly focused on sticking it to the libs. Is that enough to win against a center-left reasonable Democrat like Joe Biden? I’m skeptical, and nothing about the Florida results adds anything to that calculation.
JonRowe
1947
My Take™:
The Republicans utterly failed. They had historic headwinds, with heavy inflation, low presidential approval ratings, “rising” crime, low dem enthusiasm, and managed to possibly barely gain the house and make no real headwind in the Senate?
This was supposed to be a “Red Wave”, more like an “Umber splash”
The Roe V Wade really fixed the dem enthusiasm, it seems, but still with the other factors, this should have been easy for them.
Menzo
1949
My calculus is this:
If he’s got an ® next to his name, and
He’s not named Donald Trump, and
He’s under 70 years old, and
He can avoid saying and doing stupid shit between now and November 2024
He wins the 2024 Presidential election. Just the fact that Biden will be 81 years old will cause lots of independents to vote for the other guy, as long as he’s not Trump.
You mean how everyone thought PA would vote for Oz because Fetterman had a stroke and couldn’t get his words out as easy as the rest of us?
He seems to be a literal autocrat as governor of Florida, and his ‘states rights and state supremacy’ shtick seems tailor-made for some light treason.
