2024 Presidential Election

Why would China be rooting for Trump I wonder? Trump is promising a flat 15% tariff on all imported goods.

Russia I get, but I don’t understand the calculus on this one.

Why wouldn’t China want to accelerate the destruction of the United States?

As for the tarriffs, Xi can buy some DJT stock and those will never get mentioned again.

China would be rooting for Trump because:

  1. They can just buy him
  2. He is an idiot, and his presidency will undoubtedly weaken the US, which is good for all of our enemies
  3. Under Trump, Taiwan will be easy pickin’s, because Trump is ultimately weak and ineffectual

Does China want to weaken the US? I feel like they want us to keep buying their stuff.

But I understand the point about just buying Trump and the Taiwan situation.

Oh yeah, China definitely wants to weaken the US. Weakening the US opens up Asia to China expanding its influence, through means that are less diplomatic than we normally engage in.

I would like to submit that I’m pretty sure my dog is smarter than the average Trump voter.

“I’ll buy Taiwan for the price of 4 years of Trump being someone else’s idiot”

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I think you’re right that Biden should just start talking a big game. Talk about a bunch of nonsense that we’re going to do at the border and then just declare victory in a couple months.

But there are also probably some things that he could actually do unilaterally to solve the underlying issue. Even if it’s just temporary.

The problem is that Biden is in a situation where he is comparing actual, tangible things that he actually accomplished, to fucking magical thinking nonsense that Trump just makes up.

If you are stuck in that comparison, you have a problem, because it’s easy to just make stuff up that sounds super impressive.

Trump can just say stuff like, “Our healthcare system sucks balls! I’ll fix it!”

If you are an idiot, that sounds cool. The healthcare system DOES suck. Fixing it would be great!

A person with a brain will say, “But Trump said he was going to fix it last time. He failed,” but that caveat is really critical… you need to have a functioning brain to do that kind of critical analysis. And seemingly most people are dumb.

And it’s not just Trump voters who are idiots. The Democrats absolutely have their share of idiots on their voter rolls. And the reality is that the dumbasses are the ones that are hard to get to go out and vote, because they are dumb, and they don’t really understand how things work, and they think “both parties are the same,” because, again, they don’t understand how anything works.

I remember seeing how Ice Cube was talking about Trump, and damned if it didn’t break my heart, because I realized “Ice Cube is a fucking idiot.” The dude made some awesome music, but I realized that I gave him more credit than he deserved when it came to his intellectual prowess. And he’s not alone, in that there are a lot of people who carry a lot of influence, who are fucking dumb as rocks. And that can be, and is being, exploited by Trump and his machine.

Because he won’t do shit when they invade Taiwan. Heck, he’ll probably cheer Xi on and comment on how strong he is.

Yep, and then suddenly all the GOP folks who have pretended to care about the threat from the CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY(!!!) will suddenly be totally cool with them, because Trump says so.

The thing is, China absolutely is a major threat to the US, and global stability in general, but the way that threat is manifested in discussions by the GOP is damn near the dumbest possible way. It has something of a “boy who cried wolf” effect, but instead of the kid yelling about a wolf when there is none, the kid is an idiot who is yelling that the wolf is actually a flying bear, to the extent that you want to just discount him because he’s such an imbecile.

China also is hard for these Cold War fossils to understand because they’re not looking to fight some existential war to the death, which is the only thing these Puritan culture warriors understand. They just want to push American influence back to its own shores. America’s fragmented legal and political landscape is fragmented enough China can get what it wants out of the US mostly legally anyway.

But China isn’t planning on sneak attack nuking Washington. They’d be happy to sink a few carriers in a hot war and then quickly sue for peace, once the US ceded support for Taiwan.

I think Florida is a lost cause for Biden, but it seems there will be a state constitution amendment proposal to enshrine abortion rights on the ballot. That will certainly help drive turnout, and support for abortion rights in Florida is estimated at around 70%.

(Swing states need to get abortion rights onto the ballot.)

AND there will be a marijuana legalization item on the ballot; I agree chasing after Florida is fools gold for Biden’s campaign, but if it’s ever going to happen then these two items might help pull off quite the surprise.

Lest there be any remaining question about what role he wants to play.

RFK Jr. argues that Biden is a bigger threat to democracy than Trump

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/01/politics/rfk-jr-cnntv-interview/index.html

Only because of the Swamp Denizens, who sabotaged him inbetween courses of sweet Christian baby pizza something something.

If a third party candidate spends more time attacking candidate X than candidate Y, I wonder who that hurts. On the one hand, being attacked is bad, but on the other attacking candidate X makes you more likely to attract existing supporters of candidate Y to vote for you (which hurts candidate Y and helps candidate X). I would think in this case the latter is likely to dominate the former, so RFK Jr. turning from envrionmentalist to full bootlicker may help Biden this year.

Re China, they must have mixed feelings about the election. On the one hand they’d like the fact that Trump is an imbecile with no interest in foreign policy who will happily abandon Taiwan and ignore China’s regional issues.

But they are enormously dependent on US trade, and if Trump does something idiotic with tariffs they can suffer a great deal over the short term. And China is always on the knife edge economically regardless of their total wealth. Biden in comparison will be a known stable factor who will do his best to keep trade going even if he does provide more support to Taiwan and other nearby rivals.

The big thing about Trump is that he seems willing to throw the international order overboard for (apparent) personal gain. It seems likely that much of his pro-Russian attitudes were something to do with being promised to build a hotel in Moscow in the past. Beijing could almost certainly muddle the waters with Trump by promising him the permission to build something similar on their territory, and suddenly American support for Taiwan becomes that much more shaky.

I could easily see China betting on Trump allowing them to take Taiwan and then normalizing economic relations once he’s gone.