Perky finds his voice again and replies to scott
Okay, voting has begun for the execution of @Juan_Raigada.
Vote in thread, YES to execute @Juan_Raigada, NO to keep @Juan_Raigada alive.
There are 7 living players, so 4 YES votes are required to execute.
As of now, private conversations are closed, although public discussion remains open.
I can’t say I really know who is who here, but based on what I learned from @Juan_Raigada I don’t think it is a good idea to execute him now.
I vote No and urge other good folk to do the same.
Edit: Wait, I forgot that I was dead! So I’m not choosing to use my vote at this time @Lodgium! Sorry for that.
Vote no.
So I’ll try to summarize how I’m reckoning:
- @rowe33 as the Empath says one of his neighbours are evil
- @Dave_Perkins as the Undertaker says @Matt_W was the Imp when he was executed
- @scottagibson as the Ravenkeeper says that @Perky_Goth is good
- @Lantz as the Chef says that there is one pair of evil (which can include me as the Recluse)
- @CaseyRobinson claims Saint which matches me being the Recluse
If - and it is a big if - all are to be believed then the only two remaining possible evils are Knightsaber and Juan_Ragaida.
Obviously @scottagibson knows something I don’t, but that doesn’t help me in figuring out what is going on. Thus I must vote along my best guess, which is YES
Yes, this is the problem: who to believe.
I would say that the (near) certainties are:
- I am the Ravenkeeper (confirmed by my murder)
- Perky is the Washerwoman (confirmed by me)
- Rowe is the Empath (confirmed by his murder)
- One of Matt / Lantz is evil (Rowe told us that)
- One of Dave / Matt is evil (Dave accused Matt of being the Imp)
- Casey and Jostly are either both outsiders or both evil
From there, everything else is predicated on who you choose to believe. Perhaps Dave is the Undertaker, which means Matt was the Imp, but perhaps Dave is lying. Perhaps Lantz is the Chef, which might indicate that Juan is evil, but perhaps Lantz is lying. Perhaps Casey / Jostly are both outsiders, or perhaps one or both are lying; though with this last, I think it is all or nothing, either both are lying about being outsiders, or both are outsiders, since no one else claims to be an outsider and there can’t be just one.
I vote no
While I kept it perhaps a little too close to my chest, thinking keeping the Ravenspeaker hidden was more important, I implied that he was good to a few people. We could both be cooperatively lying, if that can still fit in somewhere.
Well, “confirmed” I would say, as in, the Imp killing himself and claiming Ravenkeeper is a power move listed in the wiki, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that’s what’s going on. But the bonus is that if you’re actually evil and lying about that, then going against you and killing Juan is probably still the best move.
Another thing the wiki says, a thing I’m realizing now with my own mistaken choice about who to identify when I died, is that you shouldn’t spend too much time worrying about the tricks of a few characters, and you should take the knowledge you get mostly at face value. It’s unlikely the evil team would kill one of their own in the early game without any real need, so I think we should assume that they didn’t. And if you aren’t willing to at least tentatively take information at face value, you won’t ever take any information at all.
I’m taking all the publicly available information at face value, and that reasoning leads to Knightsaber and Juan being evil, as I laid out before.
Put another way, you’re saying that if you are right Juan must be evil, and if you are wrong Juan must be evil. You should see that there is something wrong with that set of conclusions.
No. I’m saying that if I believe all the information available to me (except Matt, but that is overridden by Dave’s revelation), then it leads to that conclusion.
Another hypothesis is that you could be the imp that killed itself to claim Ravenkeeper, and if that were true, then your defending Juan means it could still be a good idea to kill him.
There’s a whole range of solutions where I’m wrong about both, and where Juan is not a good target.
For the record, I don’t believe the second one to be very likely, exactly for the reason you specified. I’m voting yes because of the main line of reasoning I wrote initially.
Yes. My question is, why is that the only counter hypothesis you’re considering? There are other possible lies that don’t lead to Juan’s guilt, and they are more likely than that I’m a suicidal Imp. E.g. suppose Lantz is lying? If so, that means Dave is also lying, which accounts for all the facts just as well; and it means that there is no evidence at all pointing to Juan.
I can’t be certain Juan is on the side of the angels, but it’s more than possible enough to make me reluctant to execute him.
I only mentioned it because you wrote that your death confirmed you as Ravenkeeper. It was to counter that specific argument.
But they don’t produce any actionable result, and isn’t corroborated by anything. My current reasoning is the only solution I can see that contains corroborating statements and produce a result I can act on.
Is it too neat to be true? Possibly. But until I know something more, I have the choice of acting on what I know, or just sit back and do nothing, and while that may be in the character of a Recluse, I think that part of my life is over and done with. You lot dragged me back from my exile, now you get to deal with me.
Lol. Good character!
Wrong executions do work towards the evil side winning by thinning the herd at double the speed, while the correct execution could win us the game, avoiding executions until we are sure of what’s going on could work better. That’s why I have been wary of most executions so far.
- Jostly and Casey are both evil or neither is evil.
Yes, I think that assumption is warranted at this point, with no other outsider making a claim. I’ve updated my post with that list.