After the Blue Wave, 2019 Predictions

Democrats need some mass therapy. 2016 really did a number on this party.

I know just the type needed

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Well it really was the most horrible outcome possible. I’m not overly concerned about GOP crying obstructionism. I’m sure Trump and his cronies will keep the plebs focussed on their incompetence and evilness. There are no independents any more. Only Republicans and Democrats and people who don’t want to admit that they’re Republicans.

I don’t think I really want Pence unleashed.

I mean… they were already saying it when the GOP controlled all of government.

I mean, either the number of awful people in the U.S. electorate caps out, or America is fucked. Those are the options.*

*assuming remotely fair elections

But…are you sure?
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No kidding. Apparently not only are Republicans masters of brainwashing their own voters, they do a damn fine job of brainwashing Democrats too.

It’s not that we don’t have faith in the Democrats, it’s that we don’t have faith in the American people.

Sorry, I do not agree with all the doom and gloom scenarios.

The Democrats just picked up 35 House seats in a strong economy. They won 7 Governorships, including quite a few battleground states. They restored voting rights to 1.5m Floridians who may very well influence the next elections no matter the Florida Man jokes that may arise. And they defended the Senate quite well. In a map that was as stacked against them as could possibly be, they only gave up 2 or 3 seats. If not for a small blue wave, the Senate could have gone 57 or 58 seats to the Republicans. And when it all said and done, there will be over 100 women representatives for the first time in history.

A party typically does not win this many seats in a strong economy. Many, many things broke the Democrats way.

The next two years may prove to be interesting. Republicans will stack the courts as they are wont to do. The Democrats will use their subpoena power and may uncover some very interesting tidbits in the meanwhile. And there is, at last, a check on the Evil Impotent One’s power.

Agreed, I thought the Dems performed fine. As the recent Pod Save America put it: they did great if not fucking great.

I’m confused, who is saying the Democrats didn’t do a fine job in the midterms? I’m certainly not. They did as well as can be expected given the map this year.

What I am saying, and so are most in this thread, is that the shift in power isn’t sufficient to make any significant gains happen in the next year. I’m not sure why that qualifies as “doom and gloom” or “being brainwashed” since it’s pretty much what has happened with divided government since (at least) the turn of the century.

Edit: And, I should add, also saying that it’s easy for those who want to see the results as “mediocre” or “not censoring Trump sufficiently” to interpret them that way.

Seems to me there is a lot of negativity in this thread. Hence my doom and gloom comment.

At least we have some checks and balances again and generally a split government seems to function better. There are massive exceptions to this rule of course but unchecked power seems to quickly go awry. You are right that significant gains will happen in the next year but the significant losses will slow. That is about all someone could reasonably expect until 2020. While I agree this is not ideal it is one of the better scenarios that could have transpired yesterday.

Do not get me wrong. I am PISSED about the elections in my home state of FL yesterday. But I can either wallow in negativity or perhaps see a light at the end of the tunnel. I am choosing the latter because today is most certainly better than yesterday. I am quite happy about many of the new - and varied - faces being elected. I am happy to finally see Muslim women in Congress. I am excited to see the large number of women being represented. I am happy that 1.5m Floridians who have paid for their crimes get their voting rights back. I have no issue with “my side” (and I am an independent) losing an election fairly. I have absolutely hated the last 10 years of voter suppression, which in my mind is tantamount to treason. That tide was reversed yesterday and that is more than enough to make me pleased about the results.

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I, too, feel unreasonably disappointed. I wanted more than a win – I wanted to see a resounding rejection of Trump, one that showed the lies and the racism were turning sour even amongst the GOP.

The gains in the House are great. They exceeded most expectations. But the high profile losses hurt. I will miss having Claire McCaskill as my Senator. As someone who is considering a move to Florida, I would have loved to see Gillum as governor. Etc :)

Worst of all, Trump is now certain that his caravan stories saved the senate. We’re going to get more of that. Trumpism is going to get worse, not better. Maybe that makes him even more likely to lose in 2020, but the ride is going to be scary.

While you’re right about the motivation, this was always the case. Trumpism is all about doubling down, no matter what. You never, ever admit defeat or apologize, you always, 100% of the time double down. Even if Dems took the Senate, Trump would have claimed victory. Even if Dems won every single matchup he’d claim victory.

That’s just how it’s going to be. But I agree that it is probably one of the causes of the lingering ennui. The last couple Presidents have come out the day after the usual midterm drubbing and basically said “we got beat yesterday, I hear you, let’s work together.”

Trump doesn’t do that, so we don’t get closure for the big wins. I think we need to find our own closure, though.

Scary but with a check on his power. Finally.

In this political climate there will not e a resounding rejection of Trump because the Republican base remains energized. They simply do not care how foul the man is as long as he appears to be one of theirs. I do not have any idea what action it will take before the sheep wake up and realize how disgusting he is. When hardcore Republicans like Max Boot have walked away, I remain dumbfounded how the rank and file can meekly follow along hopelessly passing their time in the grassland away.

Gullum did not run a good race. He positioned himself as the anti-Trump but never got his message across. What position did Gullum stand for? Nobody knows. He also did a shite job of campaigning in some areas. I live in a quite Republican area but never saw any information from him, never even so much as a sign on the road from him. I do not believe he came to my town of 75,000 people. Thus he did significantly worse in my county and the one next to mine (I live on the border between the two) than Obama did in 2012 (when he barely won FL) and Hillary in 2016 (when she lost). Had he performed as well as Obama, or only slightly better than Hillary, he might be Governor today.

While the Democratic faithful were excited about him, the better candidate would have been Gwen Graham. Her moderate Medicare and environmental platform (especially given the red tide problems we have had this year) would have performed much better in a general election IMO.

It’s all about controlling the 2020 census. That’s how the Republicans won after 2010, and that’s what we can focus on.

On the other hand, when do we write of Florida? Seriously, Florida always seems just out of reach but we all keep being hopeful. I know we were hopeful about Texas, but I think we all realized that was a long shot, if it was even possible, but Florida. We can betting on Florida and losing.

That being said, there is still going to be a recount in Florida. First by computer, but than by hand.

Shit, I’m doing it again. Fuck Florida.

Forget the GOP. The GOP is the party of Trump. Those with a shred of human decency have retired and/or left the party. Forget them.

Trump did take a beating. Did you see all those House districts that went 10+ points for Trump, and the Democrat candidate flipped (sometimes with a margin around 10 points themselves!) from Republican control? That’s a 20 point swing! That’s massive!

Now imagine what the House looks like today without the gerrymandered advantage. Look at how Pennsylvania turned out compared to Ohio.

They absolutely took a drubbing. And all this with a roaring economy and almost full employment. They should have been able to run on that and retain so many of these suburban voters because things are going so well. What does the outlook for them look like when a recession rolls around??

Fuck doom and gloom, man, the GOP got their asses kicked up and down the country.

Like @Knightsaber, I’m feeling the effects of my local candidates losing. It can be a big downer. It’s hard to look at the bigger picture when your local neck of the woods seems to be going in the other direction. Claire McCaskill’s loss, in particular, is tough to think about.

However, focusing on the positive, Missouri resoundingly passed a law that should restrict gerrymandering and lobbying and a few other things, making for cleaner elections going forward. Missouri passed a $12 an hour minimum wage (it will be increased gradually to that by 2023). That’s huge, that will help a lot of people in this State, while being gradual enough a change that small business should be able to adapt pretty well.