After the Blue Wave, 2019 Predictions

Politics and religion
101

I saw this last night. I think a lot of people feel the same way. It seems like these political movements are more shared and collective in fear, anxiety, stress and relief. Hank Green going to ‘leave the internet for a year’.

That downer feeling is just the recognition about how many Republicans dutifully line up and mark R no matter what.

To me it’s like reading that Kansas newspaper promising to drown the rivers in the blood of abolitionists. Seeing the lines being drawn in ever bolder colors, the gap getting wider.

Most Progressives hoped that upon seeing Trump many Republicans would see the error of their ways, or at least, heed the calls to reform. The Democrats did make progress, and it’s huge and important, and probably saved the country; but it wasn’t by convincing the other side. And that’s the most depressing thing.

Sure, we won. But it really is us vs. them, it really is a line that cannot be crossed, a bridge too far, ect. That sucks. Why it got to be so, oh, we all know the reasons, though we may weight them differently. It doesn’t make it any easier to behold.

102

Exactly this. In 2016, 48% of the country (ignoring the idiot “protest” votes) picked Trump.

Now, after two years of his terrible behavior and countless hours of news and books and whatever explaining what he is doing to the country… 47% of the country effectively voted for Trump.

I simply hoped for better.

I do have some bright-spot anecdotes that I’ll share in the other thread.

103

I’ve said it before but I’ll say it again.

That Trump got more than about 20% of the vote in 2016 permanently erased my faith in the American electorate.

It’s a bar fight from now till we die.

Tuesday was a win. We take it and keep fighting.

104

Well, that number might differ. We are still waiting for all the votes to come in from California.

Also, we flipped 13 states houses. That’s a huge deal. That’s what controls the gerrymandering. That’s what what caught us off guard to begin with starting in 2010.

Also, places that went R went R by less. That means GOP money needs to be spread around more to defend more places.

And, as my canvassing showed, more and more moderate GOP members have decided that the Party isn’t there’s anymore. Not enough of them, sure, but some. And it’s growing.

105

This is what you need to do.

The Democrats lost things in the past decade because after Obama was elected, tons of Democrats thought they had won, and stopped playing. The GOP collected themselves, and just started doing the work.

You gotta work EVERY ELECTION.

106

Thank you. So what you think is going to happen is what you thought was going to happen (and I agree this was/is quite the likely scenario).

107

A small pickup in seats? How many were you expecting to pick up?

108

Ya, I mean the Democrats picked up over 30 seats at this point.

It’s not quite what the GOP pulled in 94, where they picked up 54 seats…or 2010 where the GOP gained 63 seats. But still, 30 seats is pretty good.

In 1982, the Democrats only picked up 26 seats. In 2002, the GOP actually extended their majority by 6 seats.

30+ seats is a pretty solid slam of Trump, especially given the current economic conditions (which are very good).

109

Had the Great Gerrymandering already occurred by the 2010 elections, or did that happen as the result of it? Our economy was obliterated and we were still in the throes of the Great Recession at the time, which I distinctly remember people blamed on Obama (because people have the memory of goldfish, apparently).

Either way, in 2018 we’re gerrymandered to hell and back. Pennsylvania and Ohio look pretty dang different. A 9 to9 split in the former and what, a 4 to 12 split in the other or something like that, despite 47% of people in OH voting for Dems.

110

Well said.

111

And the headline while I was flashing past Fox last night on Laura Ingraham’s show was how great a victory election night as for Trump. Talk about your fake news.

112

And Texas is split 13-23, despite 48-52% voting. Texas is voting the same as Ohio, and Ohio is considered a battleground, no? If not for gerrymandering…

113

Well, its winner take all during elections, and it’s an expansive state to play in

114

Maybe small wasn’t the right term. “Less than a landslide”, maybe? All I meant is that Democrats would have the majority but not something huge like 2/3 majority or anything.

115

Given the extreme gerrymandering, in what universe would they ever have that kind of majority?

116

Highly unlikely, right? But so was picking up Senate seats and there were people paying serious attention to that possibility.

Anyway, I’m seriously regretting use of the adjective “small” since I didn’t mean anything significant by it, back in April. All I wanted was to indicate that I expected there would be a blue wave, but not a tsunami.

117

I’m very excited. The election was a clear repudiation of Trump and the GOP.

-Huge gains in the house in the face of gerrymandering and voter suppression.
-A number of Senate seats saved in trump states: Montana, West Virginia, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania
-Flipped Nevada
-Continued to show great progress in Arizona (fair shot it flips), more progress in Georgia, trimmed Texas down to 2.5% loss.
-Reclaimed some footing in the rust belt.
-Dems made some giant gains in the state legislature which will help unwind even more gerrymandering.
-Restocked the bench and put on a fresh face to the party with not just Beto and Gillum, but a swath of House winners (women in particular).
-Colorado elected its third Democratic Governor in a row and finally ousted the GOP from the 6th district there… that was personally gratifying. Also, the writing is on the wall for that sniveling turd Cory Gardner. He will be booted in 2020
-Young people turned out (in Colorado at least) and turnout overall was very good

What disappointed me was more systematic
-Florida continues to slide away
-Not enough gains in Ohio, which also continues to slip away
-Losing Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota sting, but wasn’t unexpected
-Voter suppression has become even more rampant and overt. The work of Kemp in Georgia almost certainly swung him the election. Likewise, the new complaining from Scott in Florida is really depressing
-Gerrymandering is an incredible problem. The margins that the Dems had this week should have net them closer to 60 seats, but was slowed by gerrymandering. A party that wins the house by 7pts should not have to fight so hard for a moderate majority
-The Supreme Court is a joke now
-Trump continues to drive narratives of hate. I don’t see these wounds healing.

As for what happens next? We already see it. Trump goes crazy and finally breaks down the rest of the governmental norms The Dems hold hearings, but the GOP will keep their ears shut and continue to swallow propaganda. Mueller releases findings that highlights a laundry list of crimes, but because none of those crimes are explicitly called ‘Collusion with Russia’, the GOP and their base ignore it. Trump continues to pardon his associates and ultimately his son.

The economy will slow if not completely stumble in 2019.

Seeing the writing on the wall, Trump won’t even bother running again in 2020 because he refuses to be labeled a loser. Instead he will ride off into the sunset, leaving the ruins behind him… then he will go on TV to bitch and moan and proclaim his greatness while everyone else is left to pickup the pieces. The veins of hate and division he has left in the country won’t go away, and will continue to fester, even as the demographics continue to shift.

118

The exit polls were kind of fascinating (via Jennifer Rubin…and when did she transform from right-wing crank to moderate Democrat?) for how reasonable they seem. I’m encouraged by the “elect more minorities and women” and “voters more important than fraud” and gun control numbers.

If you then turn to exit polls, voters said by big margins: they disapprove of Trump (54 percent to 45 percent ); regard the GOP unfavorably (52 percent to 44 percent); think the country is on the wrong track (54 percent to 42 percent), thought Trump’s immigration policies were too harsh (46 percent, with 33 percent saying they were about right and 17 saying not tough enough); favor tougher gun laws (59 percent to 37 percent); think his foreign policy makes the country less safe (46 percent to 38 percent); disapprove of Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh (47 percent to 44 percent); want to uphold Roe v. Wade (66 percent to 25 percent); think it is somewhat or very important to elect more minorities (72 percent to 24 percent) and somewhat or very important to elect more women (78 percent to 20 percent); think sexual harassment is a big problem (84 percent to 14 percent); and are more concerned about people being denied the right to vote than voter fraud (53 percent to 36 percent).

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/opinions/wp/2018/11/09/three-days-later-hey-republicans-really-did-get-clobbered/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.dfa3b47e20b1

Maybe Americans aren’t a total lost cause yet.

119

Now if only we could reliably get them to vote for those positions!

120

They totally aren’t, and this election showed that.

In 2016, somewhere around 55% of Americans eligible to vote showed up at the polls. In 2012 it was also around 55%, but in 2008 it was nearly 60%. The spike in 2008 is obviously attributed to Obama’s campaign and the massive grassroots GOTV movement associated with it combined with an excitement rarely seen over a Presidential election. But what happened between 2012 and 2016 that a very similar percentage of voters could produce such a different result?

For one thing, in those eight years (since the black guy got elected President) the GOP had been working furiously to disenfranchise many historically Democratic voters in key swing states where they had legislative control (such as Michigan and Ohio). New voter registration and identification laws were thinly veiled attempts to make it much more difficult for low income and minority people to vote. Then you had the 2016 run up to the election where Conservative media embraced Trump and went on an all out blitz offensive to fire up the worst parts of the GOP base and carpet bomb the country with misinformation and distraction tactics designed to bring as many Republicans to the polls as possible. Call it the Hillary Effect or whatever, but there is no doubting it worked. The combination was enough to swing a few key states, and the electoral college process did the rest.

So the key takeaway here in 2018 is that even with the GOP base nearly as fired up as they were in 2016 (Liberal Mob! Caravans! Jobs! Economy!) Democrats were still able to regain control of more House seats than they needed (or even expected) to regain the House, plus hang on to Senate seats in a tough year where a large number of seats under their control were up for grabs, plus gain ground in total number of Governors and State Legislatures controlled as well as judges and other state offices, all of which means they can now work to undo those same voter disenfranchisement laws that likely cost them the 2016 election in places like Michigan. That’s huge for 2020.

Sadly, it’s going to be difficult at best for Democrats to regain control of the Senate in 2020, as again they’re defending several seats, including some on shaky ground, and there just aren’t that many vulnerable Republican seats up for grabs in 2020. However, increased voter turnout in 2020 via a combination of better voter laws in states controlled by Democrats, GOTV campaigns in states not controlled by Democrats, another wave of fantastic candidates for House and Senate seats like we had this time, and a charismatic candidate for President could all combine to make 2020 a turning point, even without Senate control.

I’m also convinced…and maybe I’m too optimistic here…that “Trumpism”, or Conservatism, or whatever you want to call it, has peaked in America. I believe that the 2016 election, and this past midterm, represents pretty much the largest marshaling of those forces possible. There are only so many people Trump’s rallies, Fox News and “fear of a black/brown planet” can bring to the polls, and I think we saw close to maximum participation in 2016 and close to it again this week. Without the assistance of gerrymandering and voter suppression, it becomes a pure numbers game, and America has more decent people of all races, religions and backgrounds than it does racists/idiots.