After the Blue Wave, 2019 Predictions

Yeah, what people say to others in a poll and what they do when they’re in the ballot box can, and I believe in many times are, very different.

I keep thinking that too - how many angry old white racist assholes can there be in this country, anyway?

Sadly I keep being disappointed by the answer, but I hope you’re right.

Baby boom has kept that number artificially high. I have no doubt that my generation (X) will turn into old racist assholes too, but there’s far fewer of us, thank god.

I’m sure this Gen-X’er will be an old white asshole, but I’ll try to keep the racist bit at bay.

Agreed. I’m old and white already, and I reckon I’ve had the “asshole” thing down for many years. But I’ll try hard to avoid the “racist” merit badge.

According to most poll research the 45-64 is already shifted pretty heavily towards Republicans. That isn’t all Gen-X’ers but a great majority.

That was before Trump though. I have to wonder how many of those people, at least the ones at the younger end of that spectrum, are reconsidering that affiliation thanks to the direction the GOP has gone in the last few years. We’ve seen it here with @Timex and others, and I’ve seen it firsthand here in red country Ohio as well. It certainly won’t be a majority of the people in that age range, but as we’re seeing in Florida and elsewhere, it only takes a tiny fraction of the voting population to potentially shift an election.

I’m not normally much of a fan of Peter Beinart, but I do find #nevertrump-ers sometimes interesting to read to get an idea of what the sane conservative opposition of Earth 1 looks like. This article, despite the click-bait headline (which does not reflect the content) is pretty good:

Like their predecessors, today’s conservatives will probably spend the coming era accusing the left of fomenting radicalism and lawlessness. Like its predecessors, the third left will rise and fall on its ability to convince Americans that the true cause of radicalism is injustice, and the best guarantee of social peace is a more equal country.

We’ll be old assholes, but probably not as racist.

I dunno, I feel pretty racist against other white guys right now.

grantorino

Numbers appear to match the Boomers there, but Gen-X’ers were at the youngest 36 in 2016 (depending on how you do the math) So, 45-64 is including a lot of boomers.

But, in 2016, anyone 45 or older 52% voted Trump.

This isn’t just the boomers keeping the GOP alive, lots of people born in the 70’s too.

Sauce
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/groups-voted-2016/

They should really segment the ranges a bit better. They seem to be pretty arbitrary - why not segment them in 10 year increments? It really loses some meaning with such a wide range at the 45-64 and 65 & over.

Sadly not everyone in Gen X is a sarcastic flannel-wearing Seattleite.

There’s fuckin squares in every generation. Whilst I was out getting pissed at Doc Maynard’s in my 20’s, no doubt there were others in my generation eyeing junior city council positions and the Chamber of Commerce, holding their noses to the grindstone and grinding their teeth when folks dubbed gen x “slackers”

And now all vote hard-R and call themselves “liberal socially, fiscally conservative” like that’s a fuckin thing

Eh, that is actually a thing.
There are lots of folks who are republicans for taxes and stuff, while not being crazy christian fundamentalists.

Not, it’s not actually a thing, because in a capitalist government, economic and social issues are more interrelated that an Appalachian bloodline

It’s code for “I’m too big of a pussy to admit I’m actually a regressive around the rest of you liberals here” (Cascadia)

or

“I’m too big of a pussy to admit I’m actually a progressive around the rest of you neo-Nazis here” (Texas)

We have this all over Colorado, except these people identify as Democrats… go figure. Residents here have started to jokingly call themselves Progressive Libertarians

Problem is Republican policy on taxes is not fiscally conservative. Regardless, the Democratic party is pretty big-tent on economic issues, and if people are talking about policy–as opposed to ideology–economic policy is an extremely fecund field for compromise and creative accommodation. The range of policy options that are available is very wide.

Exactly it is an area where the ultimate objectives matter more than specific policy proposals.

Like, for example, health care funding. Broadly speaking people aren’t clamoring for single payer because they love the idea of single payer, but because they see it as one of, if not the best, way to achieve the policy goal of universal coverage and lowering our inflated cost structures. But it is not the only way to do so! There are other federal approaches that can be used because there is more than one way to address demand inelasticity, price non transparency, and unequal bargaining power that cause the break down of any free market approach.

Infrastructure? There’s the traditional horse trading, a bridge here for a sewer project there. But there is also room to optimize. Spend too much on military and not enough on infrastructure? How about going to the old TVA and Army Corp of Engineers ideas, and use some of that bloat to improve infrastructure.

Is it dumb? Yeah, probably. But if the best way to invest in new transportation and energy projects is a wink and nod ‘improving national defense’ measure? Fuck it, why not.