Ah-nold at the RNC

A man watches nixon, decides he is a winner and someone to model yourself after, and that is a good reason why he is a republican??

I understand he is talking about the content of the speeches, but using Nixon as your guiding light into the republican party is sort of scary.


Uh, I don’t get the outrage. Political parties have to stand for something, as a shared ideology is pretty much the only reason for starting a political party. Seeing as how Zell Miller has violated a lot of the Democratic party’s ideologies for a long time, why would they have him speak at their convention?

This convention is looking like a disaster for the Repubs.

The anger, the hate, the smugness. I’m not sure what the hell they were thinking, and I wonder how long it will take before people start pointing out just what a mess this was.

And the thing is I keep hearing reporters talk about how it’s been a strong convention for the Republicans. It just seems too much on the offensive and too willing to drop 9/11 at every possible moment.

What you mean the media is casting the Republicans in a bizarro-world light that doesn’t actually match the real world at all?

Get out.
You’re joking.
Come on.

The anger, the hate, the smugness.

That pretty much sums up P&R anymore.

I guess that makes it a good thing that P&R is neither mandatory nor does it have any political power.

No offense UL, but P&R was created so there could be a kitchen to go to for people who didn’t mind the heat.

Scary, yes. But also apropos.

(There, I said it.)

Get in the choppuh! Come on!


I think it depends on how well the Repubs can sell their idea that Iraq is part of a larger “war on terror.” Which is why McCain, Giuliani, and Cheney were pushing that meme, that it is all a unified foreign policy endeavor, taking the war to the terrorists, yada yada.

If they can sell that, IMO Kerry doesn’t have a chance. Because Bush will appear stronger on national security. And “jobs” won’t tip the balance. IMO 9/11 is still the defining issue of this campaign. The Bush 1 comparisons never rang true to me because post-Desert Storm =! post-9/11.

So he’s campaigning on a war that, (by Bush’s own admission) has been badly managed.

Yeah? I predict a noticable bounce from this disaster :D

The worst convention imaginable would produce a bounce, from increased media attention firing up the party base, if nothing else. Every convention produces a bounce. The real question is, in the process of getting that “bounce”, have they horrified the undecided voters past recovery? The speech from Miller that got you so fired up, as a Bush supporter, is a speech that people on the fence saw as hateful and full of scary rage - and being used as the signature representative of the mood of the republican convention.

Oh, and in case we haven’t mentioned it: September 11th.

It was crasstastic!

Saw the Daily Show where they commented on Arnold’s speech.
(on “Four more years”-chant) “Wow, his will really seems to be… triumphing”

Yeah? I predict a noticable bounce from this disaster :D[/quote]Howard Dean probably predicted a noticable bounce from his shrieking tirade, too.

Not true, the Democratic Convention provided no noticeable bounce.

Bush, however, is about to slam dunk your goofy Senator from Mass.


[size=6]Time poll shows Bush 11 points ahead of Kerry[/size]
The Associated Press Sep 4, 2004

WASHINGTON - President Bush leads Democrat John Kerry, 52 percent to 41 percent, while independent Ralph Nader got 3 percent in a national poll taken during the Republican National Convention that ended Thursday.

The Time magazine poll of 926 likely voters was taken Aug. 31-Sept 2, during the convention and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Bush had 46 percent, Kerry had 44 percent and Nader 5 percent in a Time poll taken just before the convention.

Veteran pollsters say that polls taken during convention weeks should be viewed with caution because they are conducted at a point when public opinion is focused on only one party and a bounce in the numbers could be short-lived.

However, they also noted that polls taken during conventions can sometimes foreshadow a longer-lasting bounce. Much of the poll was taken before President Bush’s speech on Thursday night.

Pointed out here the problems with the poll:


Quick way to dispose of this: http://www.pollingreport.com/

  1. It’s likely voters.
  2. Zogby polled up to one day before and has Bush up by 3.
  3. Etc for the rest of them; they probably got a bum screen.

He’ll get a small bounce, but nothing that silly.

Edit: Oh yeah, and I forgot that Kerry’s media campaign more or less went dark for August:


Yeah, right. Newsweek’s poll has similar results:

[size=6]Bush’s Big Bounce [/size]
Coming off the Republican National Convention in New York, the president pulls ahead of John Kerry by almost every measure

Updated: 1:35 p.m. ET Sept. 4, 2004 Sept. 4 - Coming out of the Republican National Convention in New York, President George W. Bush now holds a 11-point lead over Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry (52 percent to 41 percent) in a three-way race, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. The poll was taken over two nights, both before and after Bush’s acceptance speech. Respondents who were queried only on Friday, after Bush’s speech, gave the Republican a 16-point lead over Kerry.

The 11-point lead represents a 13-point bounce for Bush since an Aug. 5 to Aug. 10 poll conducted by Newsweek’s pollster, Princeton Survery Research Associates, for the Pew Research Center. The president’s post-convention bounce was substantial vs. the two-point increase received by Kerry after last month’s Democratic National Convention and in line with the size of other post-convention bounces.

In late July, Kerry led the incumbent by 7 points. Removing independent candidate Ralph Nader from the mix actually has no significant effect on the spread between the other two candidates: Without Nader, Bush draws 54 percent of the vote, Kerry 43.

The poll shows that Bush and Cheney have gained ground, and now lead, on almost all key election issues: The president’s approval rating is back over the halfway mark (52 percent, with 41 percent disapproving) after having slipped to 45 percent in July; his favorability ratings (55 percent favorable versus 40 percent unfavorable) are the highest they have been all year, after having fallen to 48 percent unfavorable in the poll at the end of the DNC. And with perceptions of the president climbing back from a low over last month, more registered voters say they would like to see Bush reelected than not (53 percent versus 43 percent)—the most favorable ratio he has had since July, 2003.

As Bush’s numbers climb, those of his challenger appear to have sunk to their lowest point this year. Solid majorities of registered voters now view the president as personally likeable (67 percent), someone who “says what he believes and not just want people want to hear” (66 percent), as a strong leader (65 percent) and someone who cares about people (53 percent)—which is significant for the “compassionate conservative” who had previously been struggling to appear empathetic.

Kerry’s campaign, on the other hand, may have been hurt by the television ad campaign launched against him by Vietnam veterans who question his record. Just 45 percent of all voters view Kerry favorably (down from 53 percent in late July) and 46 percent view him unfavorably (up from 37 percent). Kerry’s numbers have also fallen significantly over whether voters view him as a strong leader (47 percent, down from 58 percent in late July), personally likeable (59 percent versus 67 percent previously), honest and ethical (47 percent versus 58 percent) and worthy of trust in an international crisis (44 percent versus 53 percent). Nearly half (45 percent) of all voters now feel the Massachusetts Democrat is too liberal, compared to 32 percent who view the president as too conservative.

The issue that received the most attention at the RNC last week was terrorism, and terrorism is the issue that is at the forefront of Republican concerns (50 percent call it the most important in determining their vote). Overall, though, just about a quarter (28 percent) of registered voters consider fighting terror the top issue in this election, whereas a similar number (21 percent) say the same about the economy, followed by health care (13 percent), Iraq (11 percent), jobs (9 percent) and education (6 percent). The Kerry camp may find small comfort in the fact that although voters who see terrorism as the top priority overwhelmingly prefer Bush (87 percent of those who see it as the top issue with vote for the president), Kerry is still favored by those who rank the economy (61 percent), health care (58 percent) and eve, by a small margin, Iraq (51 percent) as their top issue. Following the DNC, Kerry was favored by voters on nearly every issue except terror, but the president has now extended his edge to nearly 30 points on the issues of terrorism and homeland security (60 percent versus 32 percent). Voters also choose Bush when it comes to handling tax policy (52 percent to Kerry’s 32 percent) and is even viewed as better than Kerry on handling the economy in general (49 percent versus 43 percent) and education (48 percent versus 42 percent). Kerry has also lost his edge on the question of jobs and foreign competition with 44 percent of voters preferring him (and 45 percent of their support).

Voter reaction to the controversial Swift Boat Veterans for Truth television ads breaks down along party lines. Just four in 10 voters (39 percent) feel the ads distort the truth, 21 percent feel they are generally accurate and another four in ten (40 percent either don’t know how they feel or haven’t seen the ads). These numbers suggest that the ads succeeded in turning one of Kerry’s strongest characteristics, his Vietnam record, into less of a plus: For the first time, as many voters say that his military service make them less likely to vote for him as say it increases their likelihood of voting for him (19 percent versus 15 percent).

Although this latest NEWSWEEK poll represents a significant shift in the numbers of both candidates, a record low number of registered voters report having watched the proceedings at home. Only about four in 10 (40 percent) voters claim to have watched at least some of the convention coverage on TV this week, less than the 48 percent who said they watched at least some of the Democratic convention in July. Overall, voters are split on whether this week’s GOP show made them feel more favorable (36 percent) or less favorable (27 percent) toward the Republican Party. In late July, the Democratic Party appeared 41 percent more favorable (versus 24 percent less favorable) to voters who followed their convention in Boston.

As for the actual substance of the convention, Bush’s speech received similar marks to that of his challenger a month prior. Both speeches were well received, with 30 percent of voters saying Bush’s speech made them more likely to vote GOP, while 10 percent say it made less likely. (At the DNC, Kerry had scored 32 percent and 8 percent respectively.) Less than half (45 percent) of all voters said they watched all or part of Bush’s 62 minute speech Thursday night, a slightly smaller percentage than voters who saw Kerry’s acceptance speech (51 percent).

When asked which other individual speakers made them more likely to vote Republican, voters gave Rudy Giuliani and First Lady Laura Bush somewhat better ratings than Sen. John McCain and even California’s movie star governor. Of the first lady’s speech, 25 percent said they were as a result more likely to vote for the Republican ticket (versus 7 percent who said they were less likely); of the former New York mayor’s, 24 percent were more likely (versus 8 percent less). Twenty percent were more likely to vote Republican because of McCain and 22 percent thanks to Arnold Schwarzenegger Cheney’s score (19 percent more likely versus 15 less) was far below Democratic vice-presidential nominee John Edwards’ rating for his DNC speech (31 percent versus 7 percent), and even below Democratic Sen. Zell Miller’s controversial keynote speech at the RNC (21 percent said he made them more likely to vote Republican) in which he heaped scorn and fury upon his own party.

For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,008 adults aged 18 and older Sept. 2 and Sept. 3 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Told ya!!