4207

I think I see where you’re both coming from, so maybe a third voice would be helpful -

You kind of do:
“Gimme your money!”
Shit - that robber has a gun. Chances are good [using foreknowledge of such statistics] he’s not going to shoot me if I just hand over the money and let him go. If I pull my own gun, he might run, he might shoot, or both [introducing unknown variable].
Just looking at that, sharaleo’s point holds up. Why the hell would you introduce an element of the unknown that would increase the chances of bullets flying in your direction?

That said, I think that Timex’s point is quite valid. In the situation, the employee sees the actual person, not an n in an equation. The employee gets a feel for how unstable and dangerous these particular robbers are and that better informs him on the chances of being shot. Maybe one of them even says something that makes the situation even more dangerous. We weren’t there, so we can’t say one way or another. At some point, the employee might start thinking his chances are better if he starts firing than merely complying. In most robberies, that’s the wrong move as noted above. However, we can’t know if it was the wrong move in this case.

4208

Bullshit (@Timex’s post)

Statistics govern our decisions on what we eat, whether we wear a seatbelt or helmet or take the bus instead, what chances we take when conceiving children, what we take to treat illness, countless number of fucking things. All day everyday.

If you ask the Police what they recommend if you find yourself being robbed at gunpoint, they’ll say “give the thief your stuff”, because statistically that’s what will keep you alive and not shot. In that context a crook pointing a gun at you does not want to shoot you, he wants your stuff. Now sure, shit may go sideways and you get shot anyway, but you can bet your ass the odds of that happening go way, way up if you pull out your own gun.

You plainly said if someone points a gun at you, there is a good chance you will get shot, in defence of a CCL opening fire on armed robbers. That is complete bullshit, particularly in that context.

Other scenarios may vary, but that’s straw-manning, especially since I am sure you have yourself pointed out stuff like mass shootings are pretty much irrelevant in terms of their gun violence statistical impact.

4209

Yeah, statics has no bearing, but anecdotal evidence is the way to go? Come on Timex, most people don’t want to murder others (well, unless you live near Tim, where ever he lives sounds dangerous as fuck) and that still applies to criminals. Most want your cash, and as few cops following up on the crime as possible. Murder increases both the chances of getting caught and the harshness of the sentence. It’s basic game theory and even criminals usually play those same odds. That’s why you hear about stores being robbed, but rarelyabout people getting killed during the process.

But the math changes when both people have a gun. No longer can two people survival an encounter if both have a gun, so the Victor is the one who shoots first and that’s usually the criminal.

4210

The irony in this post is deeply amusing to me. ‘Wild West’ is probably the most common phrase in anti-gun perspectives on loosening gun laws, and has literally never come to pass in one single instance in the US.

4211

Hehe, I’m re-watching Deadwood, where a pointed gun typically does mean someone is about to get shot!

4212

Aha, the Hollywood exception. :-P

4213

I made an error when I said that “there is a good chance you will get shot” when someone points a gun at you. Indeed, that statement is purely an abstract statistical statement, and was untrue. But let me explain where I’m coming from here, which is separate from that fact. In no way does the rest of this negate my admission of error with that statement though.

Statistics govern an abstract combination of many different cases. They help you assess the impact of different individual contributors to a situation, but they do not somehow eliminate the individuality of each situation.

Statistics can only tell you the impact of a specific aspect (such as the effect of drawing a gun) extracted from a huge set of cases, off of which are different from the case I’m in.

You plainly said if someone points a gun at you, there is a good chance you will get shot, in defence of a CCL opening fire on armed robbers. That is complete bullshit, particularly in that context.

Sure dude, in some abstract world where you have no other information besides some abstract notion of an abstract entity pointing an abstract gun at you, there it is unlikely that you will get shot. But that’s not what I’m going to base my actual judgement on in a real world scenario, because I’m able to evaluate more than the abstract aspects captured in those statistics.

Other scenarios may vary, but that’s straw-manning, especially since I am sure you have yourself pointed out stuff like mass shootings are pretty much statistically irrelevant in terms of their gun violence statistical impact.

But that is exactly my point. The statistics don’t matter in such a situation, because it’s no longer an abstract case. The relative training levels of other people don’t matter, all that matters is MY training at that point. For instance, let us suppose for the sake of discussion, that the defensive shooters involved in this case were exceptionally well trained. That dramatically changes the statistical predictions, effectively invalidating the prediction you are making because your prediction is made with a huge set of assumptions which aren’t true.

Likewise, your predictions are made upon a huge set of assumptions regarding the criminal, which may or may not be true. If he’s mentally unstable, then your assumptions go out the window, because suddenly your likelihood of being shot by him if you do nothing skyrocket. And you don’t actually know what his intentions are when he comes in.

That’s why I said the plan of passivity is just a plan of hoping that things will turn out well, but that’s not much of a plan at all.

The defensive shooters in this case clearly did the right thing. The idea that it’s theoretically possible that the outcome could have been bad is totally immaterial, especially when basing that statement upon a ton of assumptions that the case matched the abstract case as represented in the statistical data you’re choosing to use, which is essentially guaranteed to not be the case.

4214

I think it’s healthy and not paranoid to consider in advance what you would do in a dangerous situation, whether it’s a fire, or someone trying to force you into a vehicle, or a store invasion by armed thugs, or a mass shooting, whether you’re armed or not. Having a plan keeps you from being petrified at least. You don’t need a tactical plan. Just think about it while you’re staring at the wall one day.

If someone’s just after money, then personally I’d start by trying to give them what they want. Massad Ayoob used to talk about how he carried a money clip to defuse encounters with groups of aggressive young men. “Drinks are on me, fellas.” Then try to walk away. I don’t know if that would work because I’m fortunate to live in a safe and sheltered world. But it seems reasonable to try tossing your wallet and moving the other direction.

I have plenty of money, and it’s a hell of a lot more straightforward to order new credit cards than it is to deal with the tricky emotional consequences of shooting someone, especially for a person like me who already has enough obsessive/anxiety issues. As long as they don’t start patting people down or physically attacking anyone, then a concealed firearm always remains an option – assuming you’re carrying one.

It’s the same with home invasions. Hypothetically, I’d rather lock my bedroom door, grab a shotgun from the safe, and let the invader know about this situation. (Unlike Joe Biden, I would not shoot all my ammunition out the window to alert the Secret Service.)

On the other hand, I don’t blame anyone for taking a principled stand. There are people out there who have thought it through and consider it better for themselves and/or humanity to fight back against the use of force. Or maybe you’re a liquor store owner in Chicago, and if you don’t stand up for yourself now, you’ll be overrun. [EDIT] Or maybe they do think they’re about to be killed and don’t want to take any chances.

I’m not an asshole, so I won’t judge every legally-justified shooting by telling the victims they should’ve played the odds differently. Unless it’s egregiously wrong actions like shooting a gun into the air to stop a fleeing criminal.

Of course, none of this applies if someone starts inflicting great bodily harm. Not that I’d necessarily be able to do anything about it.

4215

Not sure I agree. What if your preparation doesn’t help or makes a situation worse? Most dgu’s look an awful lot like needless escalation to me at least.

Reminds me how a lot of people talk about what to do when you encounter a bear. People have these concepts like “never get between a bear and her cubs” and when to play dead or not or climb a tree or punch it in the nose or a hundred other things that on deeper examination are fairly silly. The truth is that you won’t have that much control over the encounter, and your human instincts will probably serve you fine (imagine that!).

I’ve been fortunate to encounter a bear a few times. Mostly they turn tail and run. Once in the middle of nowhere on a trail I stumbled into a situation that I was smack between a big bear and two cubs. While my heart was beating I told the bear to go away while I walked on. They barely acknowledged me. A friend totally surprised a thousand-pound grizzly while cycling. Instinct took over and he’s fine.

4216

I’ve been robbed at gunpoint. This way back when I was working retail. The guy came in to the store with a gun and demanded money.

I gave it to him. I didn’t even think about it. I just gave him the cash from the drawer, because fuck it. It wasn’t my money. Plus, it was something like $200 in small bills. My life is worth a lot more than $200.

The thief left after I gave him the money. I called the cops and they took my statement and looked at the video of the robbery. Corporate came in did a review of the event as well. I think the police caught the guy a week later. He’d hit a few stores in the area, but they knew who it was from the videos so it was simple for them to find him.

All throughout this, the police told me that I did exactly the right thing. Just give the thief your money.

4217

Sounds good to me.

4218

I took a Hapkido class for a couple years after I got kind of bored with Taekwondo. The teacher billed the whole thing as a “practical” martial art for real self defense - as opposed to Taekwondo or Karate, where you mostly train to fight other people skilled in Taekwondo or Karate. So we trained against opponents with rubber knives or balsa-wood clubs and whatnot. It was a fun way to stay in shape and still think you’re getting more out of the experience than a good cardio workout.

One day the instructor gathered us up and said he would teach us how to defend against a guy with a gun.

“Stand in a casual stance,” he said. We did so.

“Sloowly, move you right hand to your right hip. Be sure to do it slowly, without any jerking movements.” We copied him.

“Now, remove your wallet from your back pocket and sloowly hand it to the guy. End of lesson.”

4219

And hey, if it’s a young male mass shooter who can’t get laid, just take off your clothes and get busy!

4220

Hurr durr.

Give all the ladies guns, and rape won’t be a problem any more!

Durr hurr.

4221

17 year old shoots himself during robbery. Link.

If only he was armed, he might have prevented that.

4222

Another tip I’ve heard of: if you urinate all over yourself, you could also deter any robber’s inclination to sexually assault you.

4223

No. 2 probably works better. Or carry a .38!

Actually, the best advice is really just to be aware of the environment and avoid dangerous situations if you can help it. Being alone at night in a dark isolated place is probably a bad idea for example. This goes for both men and women.

4224

I carry a 9mm. Chances are, if someone sticks a gun in my face, #2 will commence automatically. Even so, it won’t affect my aim.

4225

Nope, but I find that dead people have terrible aim. As in, if some has a gun in my face, I doubt that drawing one of my own will cause any other outcome but me being shot. I think the materials arts teacher realized that.

4226

Of course, I wouldn’t pull my gun as long as the other guy had his pointed at me. The materials arts teacher is right about that. I’m sure everyone realizes that.