Sarkus
1947
Not sure if you are being sarcastic or not, but I did google around on the subject before making my post and while there are studies that say things like “20% of gun owners own multiple guns” that doesn’t really tell us what guns they actually own. In fact, the author of that study said the lack of detailed information was one of the things that surprised him.
Of course the only way to know would be to look at background check reports and as far as I know the law doesn’t allow that information to be mined for data like whether there are a lot of multiple AR owners or not. And even if it did, it obviously misses all the private sales.
It’s a joke, there’s basically no one researching anything in the field due to NRA pressure on the government. I’ve also heard that gun ownership is concentrated, but I don’t remember where.
But there isn’t any scarcity. Gun counts have apparently skyrocketed over the last 30 years. Even if all new gun manufacturing ceased tomorrow there’d be plenty for what, 50 years until they start to wear out?
These are not exactly ironclad data sources, but polling I’ve seen agrees:
Only 40% of US households have a gun. This .888 per capita estimate implies the average gun owner has ~2.2. If Sarkus’s mentioned study about only 20% of gun owners having multiple is right, that means you have 60% of US households with zero, 8% with 1, and 32% with 2.5 average.
Note that the “scarcity” happened as soon as Obama was elected; if not for Sandy Hook pegging the needle even the mild proposals so far wouldn’t have been made. It’s some sort of self-fulfilling shortage, like when a rumor of a one-day snow storm coming results in grocery stores getting emptied out.
Sarkus
1949
Don’t you mean to flip that around? 32% have one and 8% with 3.5, right? That’s 20% of gun owners owning more then one.
And yes, the recent spike in gun sales started after Obama’s re-election. 4.7 million background checks in November and December are the highest months on record. However, 67 million guns have been sold in the US since Obama was first elected in 2008, so this is nothing new.
My shotgun is 100 years old and I suspect it was last at least another 200 years. Generally speaking, we probably have a 200 year supply of guns in the states. They just don’t wear out.
I wasn’t proposing that majority opinion ought to be the litmus test for how we arrange the deck chairs in modern society. We might discuss whether majority need would be a better one, but then I’d strongly champion the argument that discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation isn’t a “need” that anyone is bound to respect.
When I invoked my personal experience, I meant to imply that there was a universality about it. Or at least that there might be. My overall impression is that, while individual experiences might vary, by and large, guns are unnecessary for self-defense except in rural areas of the United States. I base my argument on the hypothesis that they enable more negative outcomes (e.g., accidents, criminal use) than positive outcomes (e.g., successful home defense). Obviously, I am heavily discounting the value of hobby shooting and hunting.
Your argument about the difficulty of suppressing insurgencies is well-taken, and obviously, there would be many variables to consider in any such scenario, particularly those having to do with popular sentiment, and the extent to which the government would be willing to go in terms of violence. That said, ubiquitous gun ownership is not a recipe for safety from government oppression or successful counter-insurgency per se, as we might observe in Darfur, say.
Most significant to me, in all of this, is that you actually agree with my personal “read” on gun culture in the United States.
Two new questions arise. Since gun ownership, on a per capita level, has been plummeting for years, just how widespread (or not) is “prepper” philosophy? How many people are out there, looking over their shoulder for the government boogey-man?
There’s a gun show this weekend in my area. I’m tempted to go just to see the craziness. I’m sure business will be brisk and the loonies will be out in record numbers.
I went once before a few years ago and it was typical gun show stuff. A few Patriot nuts, camo netting at every other stand, but mostly a lot of low-key hunters and collectors.
What makes it funny is we’re not even talking actual scarcity, but the perceived threat of future scarcity / restrictions due to hypothetical new laws or regulations which haven’t come to pass. It’s like futures trading, but with guns `n ammo instead of corn & crude oil.
If anything, the NRA and firearms retailers owe Obama a nice big fruit basket as a “Thank You.” Nothing like a Democratic bogeyman in the White House to drive up sales & NRA membership, especially in the wake of something like Sandy Hook.
There are some initial crazies, then everyone else thinks they need to hoard because of the crazies. It reminds me of gas before a hurricane.
I wish there was more price gouging. I’d rather have supply available immediately at a higher cost. It would slow down the hoarders. I still don’t know if I can make my matches in the next month. The only ammo I have to spare is rimfire, about 1000 rounds.
WarrenM
1956
Onion? Shit, not the Onion…
Per capita and per household are not the same thing. There are about 314 million residents, but only 115 million households. So if 40% of households have a gun, and there are .888 guns per resident, then there are 2.425 guns per household, and thus approximately 6 guns per gun-owning household. It is then a bit trickier to use the % of gun owners who own more than 1 gun, since we don’t know the average number of gun owners per household. If we assume per capita gun ownership rate is the same as the household gun ownership rate (not necessarily a good assumption, but I’m not sure how else to do it without actual data), then we get about 1.09 owners per household (which doesn’t seem unreasonable). That means that we have an average of 5.55 guns per gun owner. With a 20% rate of multiple ownership, that would mean an average of 23.75 guns per multiple owner (because for each person with multiple guns, there would be 4 with 1 gun, but those 5 people would have 5.55*5 = 27.75 guns between them).
Scuzz
1958
I was listening to the local talk radio (which is very republican) and they had several local gun shop owners on. Most said they were down to 5-10% of “normal” inventory. However, one reason for that was the holidays. Suppliers tend to shut down and not ship during the holidays so what may normally be a couple days before delivery becomes a 2-week or more backlog. After a couple weeks it sorts itself out and things return to normal. None of them mentioned a shortage of ammo.
QFT.
I own a gun from each decade. 1950’s varmint rifle/shotgun. 1960’s shotgun. 1970’s Rifle. 1980’s shotgun, 1990’s black powder rifle. I have my pistol from the 2000’s on consignment now - no longer needed or wanted in my house.
Sarkus
1960
That’s true, but there is also speculation that the smaller manufacturers are unwilling right now to build guns that may be illegal or have to be modified under whatever new laws are passed. They don’t want to get stuck with a bunch of inventory they can’t sell.
Houngan
1961
It would have been awesome if a gun-savvy kid found it and stripped it down to parts, then taped a part up on the bulletin board once a week for a while. But yeah, this guy should never show his face at the range again.
Nothing beats DEA guy. Nothing ever will.
“I am the only one in this room professional enough to carry the Glock 40.”
Can’t believe this vid hasn’t been posted yet. A group went around seeing if members of the media who published gun owners names/locations (along with a few others) would be willing to put up a sign on the front lawn declaring their home a gun free zone.
Guess how many thought it was a good idea? I wasn’t surprised by that part but I was surprised by how many either called the police or had armed guards.
Guess how many famous people would react in any other way to any other crank group showing up at their house?
Haha I liked the little law lesson on recording the police. The old man gun owner and his wife were awesome too.
They obviously had armed guards because of the death threats. It seems coordinated enough that they all got together and decided to do it, or the newspaper put up the money for it. I wouldn’t know the first place to start if I wanted private security outside my house all day.
That cop showed up fast to Eric Holder’s house. They must have a guy down the street 24x7.
