Back to more-important flower-related topics:
Admittedly, I don’t know enough about math or probability (or flowers) to understand how all the numbers work. I was going by the number at the bottom of the Rose chart that says, “Takes < 47 days 95% of the time.” But again, that probability will change if you’re planting 10 roses versus 50, or how and when the RNG is working for or against you.
The 1/45 chance (or the 1/4 chance in the one you noted) should already be factored in to those numbers. So it’s not “You have a 1/45 chance of getting a blue rose in 47 days”, it’s “You have a 95% chance of getting a blue rose in 47 days, and the last step includes a block of flowers that each have a 1/45 chance of getting a blue rose.”
The other method seems like it has more steps and probably takes longer, but you end up with a very specific red rose (1220) that has a 25% chance of generating a blue rose. Again, I don’t know which one would be quicker overall.
Lantz
1726
It’s nice when terrible people take care of removing themselves.
I could water today.
Is 6-7 hours from now a workable time?
I’m also likely to be available then if you are still missing waterers. I find the whole thing very relaxing, but I hope that my casual approach doesn’t upset you. I try to water in a systematic way but I suspect I’m very inefficient. I am anything but a min/maxer when it comes to playing this game.
Ack, my system went to sleep and closed the gates. If anyone needs to get in, just ask and I’ll set it up, rather than leaving it running and having to keep monitoring it.
My wife and son had a grand time laughing at me when I was over last time. That was the first bit of multiplayer we engaged in AC so it was bit of a novelty. Don’t pluck the flowers! You missed that one! Also my struggles with typing using the controller.
My gf will likely be down to go sell at some point today (was on a work call the last couple of hours), but figures she can wait till you’re opening up for a crowd. Just post here when you do, if you can, Scott :)
I wish they wouldn’t take the island offline unless you twiddle the controller every 30 minutes. Looks like it dropped again just as I was landing.
You can extend your system sleep time in the Switch settings somewhere. I don’t like doing it in general cuz it’ll run down the Pro Controller battery ever so slightly faster, hah.
Oh. I just checked settings — mine defaults to sleeping in 10 minutes for undocked console, 1 hour when connected to TV.
Oh, okay - I had taken it off the TV so I could keep it close, but maybe it’s wiser to move it back. Let me check the settings, and I’ll put a new code up.
Okay, open and I changed it to 2 hours before it sleeps, so we should be good.
7LYC1
Fozzle
1739
I see what you mean there. The “new” method adds a few steps, but raises a single flower pair from 6.25% chance to a 25% chance which seems better, right? but I guess it does depend on how long those extra two steps are, and how good your luck is. So one method gets you an opportunity of getting a blue faster, and one gives you an opportunity of a higher chance of success. Again, I used the method you posted anyway so I am completely speculating on said new method.
However in light of recent events (I got my blue flower) my interest in this topic has gone from 110% to 0.01% =) If I never have to track which red rose this PARTICULAR red rose is ever again I will be happy. I absolutely had to hybrid all the things, but now that I have done so I am very content to not have to do it again =)
Hansey
1740
Hey @Knightsaber, if you still need more for watering, I can come whenever. Let me know.
I cannot, my island is open for visitors. :)
4 trips later, I’m done! Thank you Scott!
