Are we going to talk About the January NPD numbers?

This is worse than I thought Sony would do for the month. PS3s were widely available in February.

Hardware

Nintendo DS 485,000
Wii 335,000
PlayStation 2 295,000
Xbox 360 228,000
PlayStation Portable 176,000
Game Boy Advance 136,000
PlayStation 3 127,000
GameCube 24,000
Xbox 480

Software

360 CRACKDOWN 427K
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE 371K
NDS DIDDY KONG RACING 262K
WII LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS 130K
PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR 130K
360 GEARS OF WAR 119K
360 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K7 113K
360 LOST PLANET: EXTREME CONDITION 111K
WII WARIOWARE: SMOOTH MOVES 109K
360 NBA STREET HOMECOURT 102k

Yes. But they probably deserve their own thread.

My prediction? Pain.

I was reading that list and thinking, “What’s he on about? The Playstation 3 didn’t do that poorly at all.” Then I looked farther down the list and realized I’d been looking at the Playstation 2.

-Tom

Q: How many people will buy a $600 system that doesn’t have several exclusive outstanding games on shelves?

A: About ^^^ that many

Yeah, Sony has got to be sweating about now. High PS2 sales keep it from being a total disaster, but it’s still pretty close to being one. The PS2 isn’t going to be able to sustain them forever.

Those software numbers are pretty interesting. The 360 owner obviously spends a lot more per capita then the PS2 owner and there are far fewer 360 games to choose from, but there are ~35 million PS2’s out there. I’d be interested in an estimate of total software revenue for each platform

Back a couple months ago I predicted <250K for Jan and <150K for Feb. I was off by ~4,000 for January and probably should have gone for 125K for Feb.

Problem is, I don’t see anything for Sony to drive sales past 200K/month between now and October.

And the PS2 is now selling less well than either recent Nintendo device. What astonishes me is that even the GBA’s outselling the PS3.

FYI those are February numbers, January weren’t good either though, but these, hoo boy. Interesting note, it appears 360 US sales for Feb were greater than PS3 worldwide sales.

Well, there are fewer titles, so more buyers of each title? maybe, i dunno

I did the same thing.

I think rjcc hit on it – it’s about the games. Note that there’s not a single PS3 game in the top 10 listings provided. Major ouch.

Interesting note, it appears 360 US sales for Feb were greater than PS3 worldwide sales.

Of course, “worldwide” pretty much is only NA and Japan at this point for the PS3. But yeah, the numbers in Japan are pretty underwhelming so far.

-Julian

Add to that:

• the high cost of developing for it, vs. the competition, and
• the rapidly-decreasing market share it has, thus diminshing the returns,

and the chance of it having a selection of exclusive titles to make it worth its premium price approaches 0.

small market + high cost of development = smaller market

Sony really is in a tough spot. They came to the race already 5 million or so behind (US), and they are consistently selling less than the 360. A 100k shortfall is kind of a big deal. Wii on the other hand is doing gangbusters, and is jockeying to catch up to the 360. 360 has a monster release list this year and they are better positioned for a price drop, so I don’t see things getting better for PS3 on that front. Wii still appears supply constrained so who knows what that thing could really do.

On the software side, 3rd parties have to be looking really closely at the 360 and the monster sales titles are doing there, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sony loses another exclusive in the next month or so, hopefully DMC4.

I’d like to take you back to E3 2006, and for you short sellers out there, point out that Sony stock is currently less than 5% off of its 52-week high.

Plus, I imagine a lot of those PS2 sales coincide with Guitar Hero sales.

Sony is in some serious deep shit here.

PS3 sold less than the Xbox 1 did it’s first February.

Wow, at this pace it will take Nintendo no time flat to torpedo into first place (worldwide of course, they’re already in first place in Japan) with the Wii. He he he. I’m very much enjoying the second time people underestimated the sales success of a Nintendo console. It’s awesome to see Nintendo rewarded for all their guts and hard work on their ultra risky moves lately.

I would be shocked by the fact that the DS sold half a million units in February alone in North America, but then it did more than that in Japan in the same space of time (in a month where it was, uncharacteristically so, completely dominated in attention and hype by the PSP) and its become almost mundane by now.

If you combine all the Nintendo hardware, they sold more than a million units of hardware in February alone.

-Kitsune

That is is a pretty poor showing. That said, for some often-missing perspective…

XBox 360:
Nov 2005: 326k
Dec 2005: 281k
Jan 2006: 249k
Feb 2006: 161k (1.017m)

PS3:
Nov 2006: 197k
Dec 2006: 490k
Jan 2007: 244k
Feb 2007: 127k (1.058m)

Keep in mind that’s ignoring previous generation sales over the same periods, which are not similar between the two companies.