Are we going to talk About the January NPD numbers?

Mcrosoft isn’t going to get japan. It’s not going to happen, so…what is there to say? If it’s a big deal to you, congrats. Whether or not they can “be number 1” without it remains to be seen. The world is bigger than japan, and as long as third parties can’t make money supporting the ps3 exclusively, they’ll be porting to 360. The only thing I care about is that we’ll still get japanese games. VF5, sega rally, trusty bell, resident evil? check.

now we’re under the theory that the halo franchise is going to implode in the next 8 months? that’s just a bit presumptuous. They’re gonig to hype the shit out of it at every turn. If it dies, it will not be due to too many tie-ins, as long as its still a great game, it will be fine.

500k in two months can’t be that hard for capcom to stomach.

The problem with Halo is that it’s very possible everyone that wants Halo 3 already owns an Xbox 360. The sales of Gears of War kind of prove that.

Heh, this one got released today (referring to the PAL launch):

Consumer interest down on expectation for PS3 - quotes from PriceGrabber.co.uk and Comet

As predicted, searches for the PS3 are drastically down in comparison to the hype around both the Nintendo Wii and Xbox 360 launches.

PriceGrabber.co.uk and leading electrical and games retailer Comet have found searches ahead of launch are both down on expectation :

Searches for the new console from Sony have risen by 100% two weeks prior to launch day, which is a significant jump. However, the PS3 is not proving as popular two weeks prior to its launch as its major rivals were when they came on to the market. Two weeks before the launch of Nintendo Wii in the UK, searches were up by 200% for the term ‘Nintendo Wii best price’ and searches were up by a whopping 435% for the Xbox 360 two weeks before its launch in December 2005. We’re confident however, that interest and searches will pick up for the PS3 as we move closer to launch.

Comet Head of Games, Ross Edwards commented that, “whilst demand for PS3 has been in line with market expectations pre launch- as the official launch date looms closer interest is really building.”

-Julian

They say Europe is Sonyland. I guess we’re finally going to find out if that’s true?

I used the 360 rather than the Wii as a comparison because I don’t think any sane person would classify the Wii’s launch as a massive fuckup. The 360’s clearly was, so the readily available PS3 not being able to beat the 360’s February numbers, right at the height of that huge 360 shortage, is pretty damning.

They say Europe is Sonyland.

Unlikely in the case. The PS2 had a hype start, but the initial sales weren’t as good as they were in the US - the system costing about $130 more than the NTSC version didn’t exactly help it. It did gain momentum after the first big price drop though.

Seeing how the PS3 is a league above in terms of pricing, I don’t see how it should fly off the shelves in a foreseeable future, launch day hype aside.

-Julian

In order for the PS3 to catch up to the 360 by the end of next year, it needs to sell 50% more units per month, on average. This month they sold a little more than half as many, putting them further behind.

I think the 360 is going to have a stronger lineup of games on shelves this fall, too (not just ones released this fall, but “hot” games on shelves overall). And be cheaper. If MS drops the price before Halo 3 and GTA4 hit, they’re going to run away with the ball big time.

Man, Crackdown did really well! Half a mil in the US alone, not counting Wal-Mart and other places NPD doesn’t track. And it launched on the 20th, so that’s only a week of sales. I wonder what its worldwide sales to date are?

Again, Capcom shipped a million day one. They were expecting much bigger things from Lost Planet. Lost Planet had an absurdly high budget- $40 million including advertising. Dead Rising definitely exceeded expectations but Lost Planet will end up disappointing.

NPD estimates the entire market, including Walmart.

I’d say its because all those new PS2 owners can just buy the tons of used PS2 games on the shelves which won’t show up in retail sales.

Nope. There’s tons of people still playing Halo 2 on original Xboxes. Those are potential Halo 3 upgraders.

That million shipped figure was worldwide, not US. Looking at NPD alone, which is an estimated US sell through after about 6 weeks, consider again what the sell in must be to achieve the numbers you are referencing (and please consider both SKUs… collectors and regular). Now consider what must have been sold through and sold in Canada (not in NPD), Europe and Japan given their relative marketsizes on 360. And then compare that to the 1m shipped figure was announced on the day LP launched.

LP has already surpassed Dead Rising in the US in terms of sales and it did so in about 5 weeks after launch. http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/toppers/?id=15381

Not going to happen, people. History tells us that you just don’t catch up when you get this far behind.

Unless you are the XBox, apparently. I guess I’m the only guy who remembers all the doomcasting the XBox received way back when. Is there any evidence that MS isn’t still literally billions in the red on this whole XBox thing? Any at all? Sony still sells more consoles each month than anyone out there. Yes the PS3 launch is fubar. If there are good games for the system in a year it will probably be doing fine if not great. Time will tell.

And that’s not “oh my gosh the PS3 is gonna rock, just give it time” fanboyishness. Actually I wasn’t interested in the PS3 that much before it launched and I’m still not – instead I bought a Wii. I just think that all this negativity for negativity’s sake is getting a bit stale and really hasn’t much of a point. No, there is not some universal trend that says that Sony must fail now that they didn’t have a blockbuster release. There is just a setback for a company that usually doesn’t have those, one from which they may or may not recover.

Or, heck. GameCube. The Game Cube was by just about any metric the loser of the last gen. You just can’t “can’t catch up from that far behind”? Wiidiculous, I say.

So the ps3s saving grace will be the ps4? Huh?

Welcome to “we are bad at math” world!

Nintendo: 485,000 (DS) + 335,000 (Wii) + 136,000 (GBA) + 24,000 (GC) = 980,000
Sony: 295k(PS2) + 176k (PSP) +127k (PS3) = 598,000
Microsoft: 228k(360) + 480(X) = 228,480. (pathetic)

Selling 400,000 fewer units than your competitor is not “selling more consoles each month than anyone out there.”

Welcome to misinterpretation world? Consoles. Consoles.

Wii + GC, Xbox + Xbox 360, PS2 + PS3.

Truly, Nintendo rules the world.

How about the cumulative US sales?

[T]he Wedbush Morgan report revealed that, through February 2007, U.S. cumulative hardware sales for Xbox 360 were 5.1 million units, Wii 1.9 million units, and PS3 1.1 million units. The U.S. hardware installed base currently stands at 25 million next generation consoles (including handhelds) as of the end of February (up from 21 million at year-end 2006).

The report also provided a little context, noting: “In 2006, console software sales (excluding PC) were $6.45 billion, a year-over year increase of 6%. Including PC software sales, 2006 industry growth was also 6%. 2006 was a record year for U.S. software sales, barely eclipsing the record set in 2004, and we expect 2007 growth of 17%.”

Meanwhile, in the land of the rising sun…

PlayStation Portable is completely failing to keep pace with Nintendo DS in Japan, Bloomberg reports today - with sales of the Nintendo handheld outstripping PSP by around three to one.

Japanese PSP shipments to the end of January 2007 totalled 5 million […] while DS had shipped 14.4 million to the region by the end of 2006 according to Nintendo figures. Independent weekly hardware sales figures for Japan suggest that DS (including DS Lite) had reached 15.38 million sales by the end of February.

The Japanese software charts will make grim reading for Sony as well, with just one PSP title in the top 40 (Monster Hunter Freedom 2, at number two), compared to 26 DS games including five in the top 10 alone. […]

PSP hardware shipments outside Japan are a bit more impressive - the Asian market overall had had 6.23 million by the end of 2006, while the US had seen 9.58 million and Europe 8.89 million for a total of 24.70 million worldwide according to Sony’s published figures.

DS, however, has built up a considerable head of steam too, with North American sales surging past 10 million at the beginning of last year and stated figures for the rest of the world doing likewise by the end of 2006. Worldwide, the DS (including DS Lite) is thought to have shipped more than 40 million units.

And regarding the Wii in Europe

“We are still struggling to deliver the right numbers of hardware to cope with demand,” admitted [Laurent] Fischer [of Nintendo Europe].

"We’re planning to increase the production capacity but it’s not something that can be done in a couple of days. We have to be patient.

“We’re delivering new units to market every week and everyone at Nintendo is working really hard to ensure it’s harming the consumer as little as possible,” he added.

With the company well on track to reach the six million sales target by the end of March, even Nintendo is surprised by the success of its new home console.

“It’s astonishing to think that with six million we’re not able to fulfil the initial demand,” Fischer said.

Huh? Look, just because you pick a side and pile on another doesn’t mean you get to pretend that anyone who doesn’t do the same is arguing against your choice of pile. There is more than one discussion to have, and the answer options to the one I’m participating in aren’t a binary or a trinity. If you think eventually being proven to have predicted correctly is the point of it, you are not participating in the same discussion that I am.

Well the Cube and Xbox never really caught up. PS2 has outsold the Cube in the US what, 3 to 1 so far? This is a new race now, with new consoles, and Sony is in a tough spot.

Also, have you folks seriously looked at 360s release list for this year? It’s awesome. By far the strongest of the three consoles.