We’ve been happy with the Dodgers performance so far this year, despite the entire team only hitting 19 home runs. Pitching has been decent though, and the lineup continues to base hit the opposition to death.
It is always nice to see a rookie come up & do well, so we’re especially happy with Andy La Roche (though the temptation to call him LaLoosh is strong). We got to see Martin & Kemp last year, so we’ve got hope for the next few years.
What is up with Jason Marquis? Is this the same guy who was the worst starter in the NL last year?
I don’t know about worst but this year he’s lights out!
Jason Marquis fun facts:
In 2006 he had an ERA of 6.02 with 194.3 innings pitched. Find me another NL pitcher who pitched that many innings with an ERA that bad.
In '07, he has pitched 47.7 innings so far, just a hair under 1/4 as many innings as he pitched last year. But, despite pitching at Wrigley, generally regarded as a small park, he has given up only 2 HR this year (projecting to 8 if he pitches as many innings as he did last year), whereas last year he gave up 35 HR.
Give Jason time, and like a rock in a pond he’ll find his true level of excellence.
You Cards fans shouldn’t be wishing bad things on Jason Marquis … aren’t you still glowing from a surprising championship? (Although I’m skeptical of his newfound success as well.)
I’m pretty pleased with the way my team’s season has gone so far, except for the part about having Joe Borowski as our closer. (Actually, now that I look I see that he’s saved 12-of-14 … but with an ERA of 9. The two blown saves were really bad ones.)
I’d kill for him as a Yankees fan.
Yeah, one of my buddies at work is a Braves fan, and every time he brings up the latest Cardinal losing streak, I mention “You mean the losing streak of the Defending World Champions.”
Fun to say, even so.
If you’re a fan of baseball brawls you won’t want to miss tonight’s Red Sox - Yankees game. A-Rod threw an elbow yesterday to break up a double play, and Schilling’s on the mound tonight, so Mr. Show Pony is pretty much guaranteed to take a plunking. I expect things will get interesting then.
Big whoop, he was attempting to break up a double play and used his arm to brace himself as he popped up to inevitably collide with the infielder.
— Alan
Sorry, but no. This was above and beyond the typical dirty break-up slide, which I will freely admit the Red Sox do all the time. I mean, the rule never gets called, but if any slide deserved it, this one did. The video’s been pulled already - that was fast - but he pretty clearly is basically trying to tackle Pedroia.
I’m not saying A-Rod deserves any sort of official censure or anything. I’m just saying he’s gonna get plunked.
Thing is, you generally don’t “pop up” on a slide into second while trying to break up a double play. If anything, you tend to slide and stay low to take out the legs.
You also don’t go in spikes up/high.
Some thoughts:
In April, scoring and home run rate was way down. In the NL, there was about .25 fewer home runs per game (a drop of about 23-24%) compared to 2006. As the BP article details, the drop in overall offense in April is mostly weather related.
I’d much rather use BP’s park factors, because I’m more familiar with them (and trust them a little more), but I couldn’t find a current year list (or what I really want, a breakdown of April and May 2007).
Anyway, I would assume that it would say much the same thing, but not as stark: Wrigley so far is playing as a pretty solid pitchers park in terms of giving up the home run (9th). Last year, Wrigley was a pretty severe hitters park for home runs (like Phil points out), by about the same margin that it’s a pitcher’s park so far this year. That’s a huge swing (to date).
Wrigley is a Jeckyl/Hyde kind of place (or so the conventional wisdom goes). If the wind is blowing in, it’s a big pitcher’s park. If it’s blowing out, it’s home run derby.
As for Marquis in specific, here’s his home starts this year:
4/10 vs. Houston - 47 degrees, 15 mph wind ; no HR (none in the game)
4/16 vs. San Diego - 58 degrees, 11 mph wind ; no HR (4 in the game)
4/21 vs. St. Louis - 71 degrees, 9 mph wind ; no HR (2 in the game)
5/9 vs. Pittsburgh - 68 degrees, 7 mph wind ; no HR (1 in the game)
5/19 vs. White Sox - 77 degrees, 14 mph wind ; 1 HR (5 in the game)
I couldn’t find wind direction, but I watched parts of that last game, and it was blowing out.
Also of note, here are the ranks in terms of HRs hit for those 5 teams (MLB/NL):
Houston - 20th/10th
San Diego - 17th/8th
St. Louis - 30th/16th
Pittsburgh - 26th/12th
White Sox - 12th
So he hasn’t faced a team at home in the top half (of either the NL or MLB) in terms of HRs hit save the White Sox.
Finally, he’s given up 4 HRs in his last 34 2/3 IP, which is 1 HR every 8 2/3 IP, much closer to his career rate of 1 HR every 7 1/3 IP (opposed to his 2007 season-to-date rate of 1 HR every 14 2/3 IP).
So if you’re hoping he’ll keep it up in the face of good weather or (likely) having to face less noodle-armed opposition, I’m sorry.
I think he’ll probably end up somewhere around his 2004-2005 numbers, like 1 HR every 8 IP or so. 2006 was likely an outlier in terms of HRs allowed, and not a sign of rapid decline.
As cool as the Josh Hamilton comeback story with the Reds has been, there’s maybe a story nearly as cool brewing down in Memphis right now. Who knows where this could go, but right now the most feared left-handed power bat in AAA is a fellow you might remember from 6 years ago…
Admit it, you laughed when Rick Ankiel announced, three years ago, that he was retiring as a pitcher and focusing full time on hitting.
And even after he had a tremendous 2005 season in the low minors as a hitter, you laughed last spring when on the day before exhibition play was to start, Ankiel ruptured a patellar tendon and was lost for the year.
Kid has had a rough baseball life. Just before Ankiel originally got called up to the majors for his amazing rookie season as a pitcher, his father was sentenced to a hefty sentence in federal prison for drug trafficking (dad was apparently a pilot flying coke in from South America).
Everyone remembers the 2000 post season, and the freak show that Ankiel became. It was sad, sad, sad. He tried to come back for four years, bookended by ligament repair surgery on his elbow and having his shoulder scoped. After pitching decently out of the bullpen in September, 2004, Ankiel came to 2005 training camp and suddenly lost all his control again.
What’s cool is that the kid got his life under control. After ruining his knee last year, he married his fiancee and settled down. Studied a lot of game film of his own swing, and of pitchers, too. He rehabbed hard. The Cardinals invited him to Spring Training this year, and he impressed them with all the obvious work, rehab, and preparation he’d done, and the team somehow snuck him through waivers to AAA Memphis.
After a rough start in April, Ankiel started hitting. A brief 2-week stint on the DL didn’t slow him down much. Right now, The Kid is hitting .282 in Memphis, with 19 HR and 52 RBI in 57 games. He’s the leading vote-getter of all players for the AAA all star game coming up. He’s hit 11 HR in his last 18 games.
He still needs to learn a batter’s eye–he walks less than Jeff Francouer or Nomah, and has an abysmal OBP as a result–and he needs to learn to go the other way with outside pitches…
…but he’s also playing his way into the Cardinals’ long-term plans, it seems. They’ve put him in CF, and he’s been solid there, with plus range and a gun for an arm (accurate too, wiseacres). The plan is to leave him in CF in Memphis all year and let him bat every day (the team cannot send Ankiel back down without him clearing waivers, and this time that won’t happen), then call him up in September…and go from there into next year.
I can’t wait to hear that ovation the first time he’s announced coming to bat at Busch.
Triggercut - nice summary.
I’ve been picking up dribs and drabs about Ankiel, but nothing so thorough as what you’ve written. Where can one find timely coverage and stats for minor leaguers like him?
It is an interesting dilemma for the Cards. IIUC, Edwards, Encarnacion and Spiezio are all signed through '08. Duncan is not going anywhere. So the Cards have 4 quality outfielders already, with Rasmus pushing rapidly up through the minors.
Presumably, Taguchi will not be back in '08 (though he’s certainly been making his case lately). That frees up some at bats in the outfield. And the starting 3 have all been somewhat fragile, so injuries alone will likely create openings in the outfield. From '09 onward, probably only Duncan and perhaps Spiezio will be around, so I think it would probably be bad for the Cards to deal Ankiel away. Perhaps Encarnacion will be trade bait. I think his contract is for ~$5 million for '08. He’s gone from being regarded (by the fans at least) as an underperformer to being pretty solid. If the Cards are really out of it by July, perhaps the deal Juan, promote Ankiel, and maybe bump Rasmus up to AAA.
MLB has its own MiLB page and its increasing support for the minor leagues on the web has been encouraging (it’s not universal but I think it’s getting there):
Memphis is here:
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/index.jsp?sid=t235
You can even buy live TV rights for $9.95 a year.
Plus, Ankiel gets to play in a pretty cool stadium environment. That’s gotta help. Ankiel just hit 3 homers last night.
— Alan
Edmonds is signed through next year. Encarnacion is signed through the next season as well…but his salary scales up next season, so unless he proves he’s worth the cash, he may be trade bait. Gooch has been whitehot lately, but he’s also 38.
The Cardinals also have Nick Stavinoha hitting decently in AAA, but the real news for them is what’s happening in Springfield. Colby Rasmus and Joe Mather might be the two best hitting prospects to come up through the Cardinals’ minor league system since Keith Hernandez and Ted Simmons. Rasmus is the heir apparent in CF for the big club by late 2008 or 2009. Mather plays 1b right now, but St. Louis sort of has a guy there who they might stick with for a while, so he’s going to have to learn to play third or move to the OF.
The upshot is, I think you’re going to see the Cardinals make a move to free up the logjam they suddenly have in the OF.
Well, except for that first baseman they drafted back in 1999 - he turned out to be a pretty good hitting prospect too, though he didn’t spend a long time in the farm system.
FWIW, this site lists Mather as a right fielder.
One more comment to your post :)
I disagree with the argument that a player should be trade bait because they’re underperforming relative to their pay. If Juan is in fact worth significantly less than what he’s due to receive next year, then no other team is likely to want to absorb the contract either - a trade would likely mean the Cardinals paying the other team to take him, either by absorbing some of his contract, or by making the rest of the trade particularly advantageous to the other team, or something along those lines.
Anyways, if Juan’s contract is about $5 million next year, I’m not sure that he’d really be getting overpaid. When healthy, he’s been pretty solid. It may be that the Cardinals want to move him to clear space for outfielders coming up, but I’m not sure that Juan + $5 million contract = negative value.
Perlozzo out…Girardi in? Talk amongst yourselves.
Erik J.