Blood on the Clocktower Game 2 (complete)

and some more whispering with my secret cabal mates craig and matt

I’m doing my best to note all this whispering but it makes me tired.

I think we’re ready for nominations whenever @Lodgium is

Okay, nominations are officially open!

Something seems to be wrong with the post office, inquiry sent to @CraigM.

Repeats can probably be excluded, I guess.

Replied now. Had wrong name earlier, it was Lantz.

What I get for replying before my morning tea

So some cards on the table.

Matt has claimed recluse. There has been a drunk claimed to be in play. This means that there is either a baron in play, or Matt and the seer of drunks are evil. Which would also mean one of Jostly or Perky was poisoned. So that is a thing. 2/7 odds one of them got hit by the poisoner, one of them reported true, and Matt &other are evil.

Or the report is true, and there is a baron in play.

The person who is claiming the undertaker must be one of two roles. Undertaker or Spy. This is good.

Now to decide the fate of a man. Thats the hard part. Juan has a certain certainty, and based off the information he has shared it makes some sense. Trying to fit the facts to the pattern here.

There is one report that was wrong though. And not from role information. However there is a plausible explanation (role confusion in cryptic comms)

Testing out the spy-undertaker hypothesis.

This means Matt must actually be the recluse. Because Perky reported Scott as the demon, and Jostly reported Rowe as poisoner (removing the Lantz and me possibilities for obvious reasons). Since there are 3 evils, this means that either one of them must be drunk, Perky found the false reporting good player, or was randomly poisoned.

But none of that makes sense with Matts claim. Neither of Perky or Jostly are a suspected drunk. It is theoretically possible for Perky to have been randomly picked his false reporting fortune teller player, our undertaker to be the spy, and Matt to be the imp. Does that work? Hmm it kind of does. Except for the fact we have a good player saying there is a drunk. Which means that this player was poisoned. Which means Rowe or Jostly is the poisoner. I think this can fit all the facts, but is a rather… delicate balance. This is the only scenario I see that fits all the facts that does not have a trustworthy undertaker.

So thats encouraging. If our undertaker is the spy we got them! (Trouble is Matt as recluse would report as Demon to fortune teller anyhow)

Perkys power gives a false positive, so his reading means nothing until he gets the second positive.

And only if we can rule out poisoning.

My spy undertaker hypothesis, and less convoluted:
Jostly Imp
Undertaker Spy
There’s a Baron (Dunno who)
There’s no poisoner (Jostly’s report was to sow confusion)
Matt, Craig, Perky and me are who we claim. Perky got a false positive.

Otherwise the undertaker is most likely good.

If jostly is good the undertaker most definitely is too (three evils and we have Baron, poisoner -the only way to explain jostly’s reading as good-, and Imp)

So again, by killing jostly we resolve the undertaker-Spy conundrum (and if the undertaker is a Spy then jostly must be the Imp, since it’s the only other role who would know who to bluff as).

Indeed, either @Lantz or I could be Perky’s false positive. So it’s not clear to me at this point that there has to be a poisoner. Let’s get to the bottom of that report.

Anyway, I’ve stated my case.

The undertaker is either good (and can provide good info) or a spy.

By killing jostly we will solve that question. Jostly being good rules out a spy. Jostly being evil rules out the undertaker being a spy OR gives us the game.

I nominate @jostly

@jostly, you have been nominated for execution! Do you have anything to say in your defense?

There are more scenarios I can make for a baron and poisoner. Hmm

Can someone else confirm @Juan_Raigada’s logic regarding confirming the undertaker being better with Jostly versus rowe?

Yes, if jostly is good it means poisoner and Baron and we need to start relying on the undertaker to clear things out (because he would be guaranteed good then).

My logic:

1- there must be a Baron (you agree with me here)
2- if there’s a Baron possible drunks are identified. Jostly is not drunk
3- jostly being good means there’s a poisoner, so the undertaker is clear.
4- jostly being evil means he should be either Imp or spy to have guessed correctly who to bluff as, and since the undertaker must be the spy if evil, he is cleared OR we win because jostly is the Imp

Yes, but I need a moment to unwrap Craig’s infodump first.

You also need to explain why offing you is counterproductive given the above logic. It’s not about saving yourself but why something else would be better.

I’m 100% fine with dying instead of jostly if it helps the town. Then assuming we have an Undertaker, they can confirm my role.

We either have an undertaker or spy.

Okay, so trying to parse what has been said for the reasons behind the logic:

I take it this means there is a Librarian that corroborates the recluse by way of having seen a drunk. In that case I understand Juan’s claim for that there is a baron better. I don’t know why you’ve been cagey about that, but fine.

So break down the theory:
If I am the imp, then executing me wins the game. That’s certain, and if I am the imp, it’s the best possible move. If you believe I am the imp, you should vote to execute me.

If I am not the imp, there are three possibilities as I see it:

  1. I am the investigator and has correctly identified rowe as the poisoner.
  2. I am the investigator, was poisoned, and incorrectly identified rowe as the poisoner
  3. I am another evil (spy)

In case 1 & 2, if we assume Baron, there is no room for a spy, so the undertaker is clear
In case 3, the undertaker cannot be the spy, and is clear

So, killing me either wins the game or clears the undertaker, if there is a baron

So the benefit of killing me to clear the undertaker hinges completely on that being true. Craig, you seem to at least entertain some doubt, but Juan is dead certain. Matt hasn’t mentioned anything, but by virtue of being the recluse, he would also be certain of the Baron.

So, let me now address this:

Actually, if we accept your assumptions, it is not counterproductive. I have been trying to find out all afternoon where they came from, and I’m glad it’s finally out so they can be addressed.

I would thus say this:
Those who believe Juan’s assertion that there definitely is a baron, backed up by Matt and whoever the possible Librarian - who better not have been poisoned or evil - is, your best move is to execute me. It’s either a win, or you’ve cleared the undertaker.

However, if you, like me, are worried that this looks like another delaying tactic to get good to kill each other and ignore the poisoner, then you might later join me in voting for rowe instead. That doesn’t offer a way to clear the undertaker, but I do think it offers the best chance of ever trusting any information that a cleared undertaker or fortune teller have to offer.

I am ready @Lodgium