I have returned from deep contemplation, and as soon as my own two little imps are put to bed will endeavor to expediently address the lahar of new information.
Two imps staring at the aftermath of a lahar
I just finished Max Brooks’s new book Devolution, which features a volcanic eruption of Rainier that drives the sasquatches out of the wilderness. It features a lahar, so I know what that is!
Sends signal flare to Scott
Sends courier to Juan
wears pencil out on notebook.
Sorry all, haven’t replied to everyone, but have read them all now.
I will say that most information does not directly contradict anything. With a few exceptions.
I am reading over the roles, and going through the messages again. There is some interesting possibilities in play.
Good News! I believe we do have an undertaker. They correctly identified the role of Lantz, and unless they whispered in secret, they did not coordinate.
So, uh, hmm. Much to chew on. There is a possibility that all three evils can be linked right this moment.
Now caveats that the fortune teller has one good player register falsely. So that is a thing. It is possible that Scott is good, and so is Perky because of that.
It is also highly probable that we have a baron in play.
I think we stand the most to gain sending either Rowe or Jostly up. Both have claimed roles with no recurring information. Nether of them can be the drunk. And that is certain. If there is a drunk in play there are two characters whom it could be, neither of them is valid.
There are edge cases where neither of the two drunks are, and it could be anyone (or no one) but if that is true then Matt is evil and one other person I can be certain* is evil as well.
But by sending one off, we can get the undertaker to validate. Which would be super helpful.
*for degrees of certainty available here.
Signals Casey
Sends a raven to Kane.
And now to let things breathe for the night since I have just blasted out a bunch. After people have had a chance to discuss things, I intend to nominate (unless someone does before me) either Rowe or Jostly.
I’ll follow your lead here.
If @rowe33’s washerwoman information holds up, then he’s probably good, or the spy, or got info from the spy.
I’m on mobile and don’t feel like checking whisper history.
I’ve whispered with Lantz and Craig so far.
Well, if that’s how it is, then I’m all the more for killing rowe than I was yesterday. From my point of view, either he’s the poisoner (p=6/7) or I was poisoned (p=1/7, assuming random poisoning first night).
My notes from day 1 don’t show any obvious Undertaker / Lantz whispers. Lantz whispered with Rowe, who doesn’t claim that role. I don’t think he whispered with anyone else.
Thus the person claiming to be the undertaker either is saying the truth or is the Spy.
Since we have a Baron, there can be only a spy if jostly is evil.
Since jostly revealed a role so fast without whispering (I think, somebody double check) if he’s evil most likely he’s the Imp.
A way to go through this would be executing jostly. If we don’t win we can have high confidence that Rowe is the poisoner and the undertaker is telling the truth.
The alternative would be executing Rowe, but in that case we won’t resolve as much, since if jostly and the undertaker are evil, Rowe would be (falsely) confirmed as the poisoner.
But since I don’t have all the info I’ll let Craig decide.
Jostly didn’t whisper before he claimed the Investigator role.
Where I stand: I suspect Rowe more but I think we can infer more from executing jostly
Ah, thanks for the support!
If we have an spy, then we don’t have a poisoner (because we have a Baron), and jostly is lying, but then why would he lie about rowe being evil?
In all likelihood, Rowe is either good or the poisoner. I think we can count on this.