Blood on the Clocktower Game 2 (complete)

Games
308

Perkys power gives a false positive, so his reading means nothing until he gets the second positive.

And only if we can rule out poisoning.

My spy undertaker hypothesis, and less convoluted:
Jostly Imp
Undertaker Spy
There’s a Baron (Dunno who)
There’s no poisoner (Jostly’s report was to sow confusion)
Matt, Craig, Perky and me are who we claim. Perky got a false positive.

Otherwise the undertaker is most likely good.

If jostly is good the undertaker most definitely is too (three evils and we have Baron, poisoner -the only way to explain jostly’s reading as good-, and Imp)

So again, by killing jostly we resolve the undertaker-Spy conundrum (and if the undertaker is a Spy then jostly must be the Imp, since it’s the only other role who would know who to bluff as).

309

Indeed, either @Lantz or I could be Perky’s false positive. So it’s not clear to me at this point that there has to be a poisoner. Let’s get to the bottom of that report.

310

Anyway, I’ve stated my case.

The undertaker is either good (and can provide good info) or a spy.

By killing jostly we will solve that question. Jostly being good rules out a spy. Jostly being evil rules out the undertaker being a spy OR gives us the game.

I nominate @jostly

311

@jostly, you have been nominated for execution! Do you have anything to say in your defense?

312

There are more scenarios I can make for a baron and poisoner. Hmm

Can someone else confirm @Juan_Raigada’s logic regarding confirming the undertaker being better with Jostly versus rowe?

313

Yes, if jostly is good it means poisoner and Baron and we need to start relying on the undertaker to clear things out (because he would be guaranteed good then).

314

My logic:

1- there must be a Baron (you agree with me here)
2- if there’s a Baron possible drunks are identified. Jostly is not drunk
3- jostly being good means there’s a poisoner, so the undertaker is clear.
4- jostly being evil means he should be either Imp or spy to have guessed correctly who to bluff as, and since the undertaker must be the spy if evil, he is cleared OR we win because jostly is the Imp

315

Yes, but I need a moment to unwrap Craig’s infodump first.

316

You also need to explain why offing you is counterproductive given the above logic. It’s not about saving yourself but why something else would be better.

317

I’m 100% fine with dying instead of jostly if it helps the town. Then assuming we have an Undertaker, they can confirm my role.

318

We either have an undertaker or spy.

319

Okay, so trying to parse what has been said for the reasons behind the logic:

I take it this means there is a Librarian that corroborates the recluse by way of having seen a drunk. In that case I understand Juan’s claim for that there is a baron better. I don’t know why you’ve been cagey about that, but fine.

So break down the theory:
If I am the imp, then executing me wins the game. That’s certain, and if I am the imp, it’s the best possible move. If you believe I am the imp, you should vote to execute me.

If I am not the imp, there are three possibilities as I see it:

  1. I am the investigator and has correctly identified rowe as the poisoner.
  2. I am the investigator, was poisoned, and incorrectly identified rowe as the poisoner
  3. I am another evil (spy)

In case 1 & 2, if we assume Baron, there is no room for a spy, so the undertaker is clear
In case 3, the undertaker cannot be the spy, and is clear

So, killing me either wins the game or clears the undertaker, if there is a baron

So the benefit of killing me to clear the undertaker hinges completely on that being true. Craig, you seem to at least entertain some doubt, but Juan is dead certain. Matt hasn’t mentioned anything, but by virtue of being the recluse, he would also be certain of the Baron.

So, let me now address this:

Actually, if we accept your assumptions, it is not counterproductive. I have been trying to find out all afternoon where they came from, and I’m glad it’s finally out so they can be addressed.

I would thus say this:
Those who believe Juan’s assertion that there definitely is a baron, backed up by Matt and whoever the possible Librarian - who better not have been poisoned or evil - is, your best move is to execute me. It’s either a win, or you’ve cleared the undertaker.

However, if you, like me, are worried that this looks like another delaying tactic to get good to kill each other and ignore the poisoner, then you might later join me in voting for rowe instead. That doesn’t offer a way to clear the undertaker, but I do think it offers the best chance of ever trusting any information that a cleared undertaker or fortune teller have to offer.

I am ready @Lodgium

320

It’s tough because I don’t have all the information you or (apparently) @Juan_Raigada has. Trivially, an Undertaker could tell us whether @jostly was the Investigator (or an evil) or whether @rowe33 was a Poisoner or the Washerwoman, and could tell either one perfectly well. If the Undertaker is actually a Drunk it won’t make any difference which one we choose. If @rowe33 is actually the Poisoner, he could mess up the results from a true Undertaker but first he’d have to guess the identity.

Edit: I agree that @jostly’s ‘defense’ above makes sense. I just don’t have access to the hidden information which lets me know if the underlying premises are valid.

321

Now collecting votes for the execution of @jostly

There are 9 living players, so 5 YES votes are required to execute.

Voting begins in clockwise order around the town square. Vote publicly in this thread, YES to execute, NO to spare.

When you vote, please @ the person next in like to keep things running.

Voting begins with @Juan_Raigada

322

I do not believe this to be the case.

Either that or @Lodgium is really messing with us ;)

323

I’m inclined to vote yes for both and let you sort it out. But maybe that gives evil too much power over the vote, so I should probably pick one.

324

Honestly I am too. We (Good) stand to benefit from either I belive.

325

Quick rules confirmation: we can only execute one person, right? So we can’t just kill off Rowe and jostly and figure we will hit someone?

326

Nope, which is why the Lantz insta execution immediately ended the day 1

327

Right. And then if we have multiple nominations, the most votes gets executed. I just actually looked at the rules, so I’m good now.