Brexit, aka, the UK Becomes a Clown Car of the Highest Order

[Ginger_Yellow]

Oh yes. I mean the government will collapse no later than fairly soon after Brexit day, with or without a deal.

[Fifth_Fret]

Unless the DUP decide they hate the deal sufficiently to get rid of the government, I’m not sure I see why.

Any collapse I see happening now is because some Tory rebels have a fit of conscience and realise no-deal Brexit is de-facto government policy, and there is only one way to stop it.

[spiffy]

I’m not sure I see why.

Because the half of the population that is waiting happily for no-deal suddenly realizes it means they can’t buy groceries, and heads roll.

[Ginger_Yellow]

If May passes a backstoppy deal with Labour, the ERG and/or DUP dump her. If she doesn’t pass a deal and Article 50 is revoked, the ERG and maybe even DUP dump her. If she doesn’t pass a deal and we crash out, then we’re going to have the mother of all economic and political crises that no government could survive.

[Fifth_Fret]

Because the half of the population that is waiting happily for no-deal suddenly realizes it means they can’t buy groceries, and heads roll.

Nobody will realise that until it happens.

If May passes a backstoppy deal with Labour, the ERG and/or DUP dump her. If she doesn’t pass a deal and Article 50 is revoked, the ERG and maybe even DUP dump her. If she doesn’t pass a deal and we crash out, then we’re going to have the mother of all economic and political crises that no government could survive.

Ah, right. I actually think extension/revocation won’t be enough to bring down the government, and I’m not even sure a backstop will mean she’s brought down after the fact. (Though maybe. The DUP might.)

One thing this whole show has taught me is that political parties hold together far more than I realised.

[Ginger_Yellow]

I think a lot of the reason that the ERG has been a paper tiger so far is that they think bringing down the government is (more) likely to stop Brexit. If Brexit is stopped anyway, then that’s not an issue any more. And if they don’t bring down the government at that point, they truly show themselves as a busted flush and they’ll never have any leverage ever again. Maybe they hate Corbyn enough to stomach that, but I don’t think so, at least for the hardcore.

[Ginger_Yellow]

I don’t think extension will bring down the government, BTW, though it’s possible.

[Fifth_Fret]

But if we’ve left, it’s over. What’s their incentive to bring down the government other than revenge? They’ll lose their leverage entirely when they are unsupported by Tory party HQ in the following GE and lose their seats.

[Aceris]

But if we’ve left, it’s over. What’s their incentive to bring down the government other than revenge? They’ll lose their leverage entirely when they are unsupported by Tory party HQ in the following GE and lose their seats.

May will not still control Tory party HQ if she supports revocation or referendum.

[Ginger_Yellow]

Well, for a start, from their perspective, if we have a backstop, we haven’t left. But I don’t envisage them standing as Tories in that event unless May is toppled. It’s an SDP scenario.

[Fifth_Fret]

May will not still control Tory party HQ if she supports revocation or referendum.

No, but voting against your government in a Vote of No Confidence is going to get you removed from the party. (And this discussion was not in the scenario where she supports those things, but where she passes a withdrawal agreement with Labour support over the heads of the ERG/DUP/Tory party.)

Well, for a start, from their perspective, if we have a backstop, we haven’t left. But I don’t envisage them standing as Tories in that event unless May is toppled. It’s an SDP scenario.

Well, maybe. May might just stand down at that point and we get a new PM without a GE, so it would have to be more than May they have issue with.

Speaking of May:

Theresa May will not be flying to Brussels in Spitfire, BBC clarifies

[Aceris]

No, but voting against your government in a Vote of No Confidence is going to get you removed from the party. (And this discussion was not in the scenario where she supports those things, but where she passes a withdrawal agreement with Labour support over the heads of the ERG/DUP/Tory party.)

That’s a more interesting question.

I also think May would not still control Tory HQ if supported a “Norway plus” BINO.

Some other deal? Maybe. But any deal where Labour demand policy concessions to be enforced by treaty with the EU - even though they had not been demanded by the EU - would be an affront to democracy. I can see it being hard to make that argument cut through with the public though.

[Fifth_Fret]

I suppose the pithy retort I can offer would be ‘You think May is in control of Tory HQ now?’

[Aceris]

I suppose the pithy retort I can offer would be ‘You think May is on control of Tory HQ now ?’

Heh. This forum needs emoticons :)

[BloodyBattleBrain]

I intend to be in the country around Brexit day time.

So much drama and it’s important.

I ought to be there.

[Ginger_Yellow]

Well, this is one no-deal cliff edge averted:

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has agreed Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) with ESMA and EU regulators.

The MoUs cover cooperation and exchange of information in the event the UK leaves the EU without a withdrawal agreement and implementation period. Until an agreement is reached the FCA will continue to plan for a range of scenarios, including if the UK leaves the EU without an agreement.

The MoUs are:

1. a multilateral MoU with EU and EEA National Competent Authorities (NCAs) covering supervisory cooperation, enforcement and information exchange;
2. an MoU with the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) covering supervision of Credit Rating Agencies and Trade Repositories.

[Fifth_Fret]

Hooray!

[Ginger_Yellow]

And maybe another.

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) is responsible for the issuance of type certificates and organisation approvals in the EU. After its withdrawal, the UK will resume these tasks under its obligations as ‘State of design’ under the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation.

The mandate sets up a temporary mechanism to extend the validity of certificates for certain aeronautical products, parts and appliances, in order to allow the operators concerned and EASA sufficient time so that EASA can continue to issue the necessary certificates under article 68 of the regulation on common rules in the field of civil aviation, taking account of the UK’s status as a third country.

[BloodyBattleBrain]

In English?

[Ginger_Yellow]

All flights from the UK to Europe won’t be grounded on Brexit day.