3967

For today.

Bercow just noted debate will go on, on Monday on these issues, the same or otherwise.

edit: Bercow confirms the process was that the indicative votes might all lose but that ranking and differences would be tested for the next step of the debate.

edit: Bercow now explaining in similar patronizing terms to some Brexit Conservative MP’s who seemingly dont understand the process.

3968

Just wait till they replace Bercow with a partisan and parliament stops working entirely. It’s the logical next step.

3969

Parliament stopped working in 2017

3970

We are now getting cross party support for local post offices. Adorbs!

3971

It’s truly descended into farce :(

3972

This has not aged well.

3973

This has gone beyond a simple train wreck into a train crashing with itself, forever, like a metal ouroboros.

I mean, what now? Vote 3 on May’s deal, another no and then what?

3974

Well, it may not be no this time. Though Labour MPs are more likely to switch if no deal is a credible option and ERGers are more likely if revoke is.

3975

Monday there will be more indicative votes. narrowing down the field. For May’s deal nothing has changed so it wont be voted on again till it does.

My guess at this stage is in the end it will be May’s deal voted on BUT with the amendment of a confirmatory vote by the public. But that is just a guess.

3976

I can’t stop laughing at this.

3977

I don’t think the numbers match up. Even if the DUP fall into line she’ll still need… 20+ Labour defectors?

I don’t think this has the required support either. The cabinet abstained on all votes tonight. That’s what, another 45 votes?

I think maybe the most likely option now is a general election?
This could drag on for a long time yet.

3978

Good point and yeah it can go on, although at some point Parliament needs to instruct May on extending the timeline. How that will happen is tbd?

Overlooked is how the confirmatory vote was voted against by 27 Labour MP’s voting against their own party’s policy
…It lost by 27 votes.

Not all party re alignment is on the Conservative side which is interesting.

3979

If she can convert those 27 to voting for her deal and the DUP come around (highly unlikely) or abstain (unlikely) then she might just be able to scrape through. My understanding though is that she needs to win multiple votes over a period of weeks to get legislation through for her deal. Just winning a single vote is not enough. I don’t think she can get enough support.

3980

But you also have

  • Bercow strongly ruling out MV3 absent significant changes in the first place;
  • May promising to resign on her deal getting voted through would probably make Labour MPs less likely to vote for it - politically it’s better for them to keep a weak leader there, plus the alternative may be a hard(er)-Brexiteer; and
  • rumours I saw earlier (can’t find link atm) that if MV3 passed, DUP would drop their support for the govt and back any future no-confidence votes against them.

Or, chaos with Ed Miliband.

3981

I like this one:

3982

I agree with all of your points. I think tonight was the last throw of the dice for Mays deal (offering to resign). She has no more cards left to play. No more political capital left.

These indicative votes while interesting are a total waste of time because she can’t support anything that doesn’t deliver Brexit or involves a 2nd referendum.
harps on about 2nd referendum being a disgusting travesty

That leaves:
no deal - 99.9% sure this is off the table now since Parliament are so against
removal of red line and renegotiation with EU - I have no idea how this can occur. Would EU agree to long extension and renegotiation, would the Torys trust May to renegotiate?
vonc - general election

I think we should just decide by having the party leaders play rock, paper, scissors or by seeing who can hold their breath the longest… anything just make a decision.

3983

if this was the name of a music album I wonder what kind of music it would be? :)

@draxen
One thing I would suggest is Brexit is now going to dominate politics for a long time. Regardless of the outcome of the next few weeks about half the country is going to feel disenfranchised. Even if Brexit gets completed then everything wrong in the UK will be blamed on Brexit with a constant drum beat of rejoining. If Brexit is avoided and we stay in the EU then everything wrong in the Uk will be balmed on the EU with a constant drum beat of leaving.

Welcome to UK politics for the foreseeable future. Which actually is fine by me. Its an important issue that people of intelligence can disagree on.

For sure nobody is going to shut up and accept the outcome and quite right too.

3984

Point 3 rather undercuts point 2. Voting for the deal becomes a way to no-confidence the government and bring a general election. Point 1 is an issue, but I find it hard to believe there’s not a way around it, especially if no deal is the alternative.

3985

True, but if Labour support the deal in any meaningful way I’d imagine the DUP would not want to get in bed with them either. In any case, I can only imagine the complexity of the spreadsheets being crafted in various whips’ offices.

3986

They don’t need to support it in a meaningful way. It only takes a couple dozen MPs