4067

From https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/03/28/two-wolves-and-a-sheep/

Democracy is two wolves and a sheep deciding what to have for dinner. They vote for free breadsticks. They go to the restaurant, which will only sell breadsticks at the usual price. The wolves say they voted for free breadsticks, and the choice of the populace must be obeyed. The sheep warns them that the breadsticks are getting cold and hard while they wait, and that if they don’t come to a decision soon then they are “sleepwalking into a disastrous hard breadstick” that will ruin their dinner. In an eleventh-hour vote, the wolves reject paying the restaurant’s price for breadsticks, and also reject leaving the restaurant without breadsticks. Eventually they all die of starvation.

4068

Looks like it will go down.

Remember, almost 500 MPs support an outcome including the WA. It’s pure government incompetence and dogged blindness (with a healthy dose of Bercow blocking the Nandy amendment) which prevents it passing now.

4069

I’ve seen no sign that the DUP are on board, so it’s hard to see how the amendment would take them over the top. A bunch of ERGers have flipped, but definitely not all.

4070

I’ve heard that the Nandy amendment, if passed, could have brought on quite a few Labour votes. Who knows if that is right though.

EDIT: Apparently the Government has pledged to include the Nandy amendment in the legislation they bring forwards (on Tuesday I guess?). Struggle to see how Nandy and co can in good conscience oppose now - if the government double crosses them then they can just torpedo the bill.

4071

Down by 58

Another week of tension and almost certainly another extension required. Yay!

4072

On the plus side, the odds of revocation are a lot higher now. On the downside, so is no deal.

4073

Isn’t today supposed to be Brexit day? Has the EU actually granted the extension? Or does the UK crash out tonight?

4074

Emergency meeting in Brussels.

4075

List of Tory holdouts and switchers.

Not that it really matters at this stage, hard to see how she could bring it back even if she wanted to (and is still PM).

Edit: sorry, that appears to be a pre-vote list.

4076

What a mess. I’d scold you all on getting your collective shit together but I live in a glass house with golden shitters so I have no room to talk.

4077

Labour yes votes, apparently:
Barron
Rosie Cooper
Fitzpatrick
Flint
Mann

4078

Full post vote list, according to the Graun:

Lucy Allan, Richard Bacon, Crispin Blunt, Conor Burns, Rehman Chishti, Simon Clarke, Damian Collins, Rosie Cooper, Robert Courts, Richard Drax, Iain Duncan Smith, Charlie Elphicke, Michael Fabricant, Sir Michael Fallon, Jim Fitzpatrick, James Gray, Chris Green, Mark Harper, Gordon Henderson, Eddie Hughes, Boris Johnson, Gareth Johnson, Daniel Kawczynski, Pauline Latham, Andrew Lewer, Ian Liddell-Grainger, Jonathan Lord, Esther McVey, Anne Main, Sheryll Murray, Tom Pursglove, Dominic Raab, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Grant Shapps, Henry Smith, Royston Smith, Bob Stewart, Ross Thomson, Michael Tomlinson, Craig Tracey, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Shailesh Vara, John Whittingdale.

4079

Good observation from George Eaton:

“One of the many problems for the Brexiteers is that the further away you get from 23 June 2016 the weaker their mandate becomes.”

Hence why many who lean Remain have at every step pretended to support Brexit while actually trying to delay it. Delay is a goal in and of itself.

Tory strategy now has to be to let Letwin push through some kind of delay, with whatever pretext will satisfy the EU ( because they can’t be seen as causing the delay, even though they want it ), then replace May and trigger a GE. Gove is probably the best leader for them politically speaking in this scenario because despite his many flaws he is not actually hated by both sides of the Tory party, and they will need to harness the brexit vote in the GE.

Outcomes: Tory win: They now have a clear mandate for the WA.
Narrow Tory loss: Corbyn has to manage a minority government and deliver/revoke Brexit. There’s no way that administration goes the full5 years.
Labour Win: Situation was probably unrecoverable anyway, better to let Labour take some responsibility for Brexit. We end up with some BRINO outcome that pleases almost noone.

Going to be tricky to get there from here without looking like even worse muppets than they have previously however.

4080

All the above is valid only if the EU allows. It seems patience is wearing thin. I don’t think a long extension is all that guaranteed (I think it’¡s the most likely outcome, though).

4081

On the other hand, he’s hated by the rest of the country. And is wearing a skinsuit.

4082

Well quite. Tell that to the Labour party :)

4083

Gove is a known, public backstabber. Can’t be prime minister, IMO, unless the rest of his party are even more jackal-like than they appear at present. He had his chance and he forfeited it with seeming enthusiasm.

4084

Gove is the next evolutionary step for the cockroaches.

4085

Right but he backstabbed Boris Johnson :)

4086

Delighted with the vote today. This government simply needs to go. I dont much care who comes next either.

Really whoever is in charge needs to go back to the EU and seek a six month delay or more.

Or at least the four months May deliberately wasted to try and pressure MP’s to vote for her now finally dead deal.

Brexit either needs to be a well thought out one (hard, soft whatever) or not at all or a general election on the issue.