4167

Sign me up for the chocolate/booze party till death. What the hell, we had a good run.

4168

Could May now be convinced to adopt no deal?
clings to quickly dissipating hope

75% of Tory party members now support no deal.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/04/our-survey-how-party-members-would-cast-indicative-votes-they-are-overwhelmingly-for-no-deal.html

4169

Welcome to the party, friend!

4170

Compromise takes time, trust and leadership. All of those things are lacking. It’s no wonder everyone has retreated into their own positions.

4171

It’s not compromise its appeasement.

4172

I was expect a lot of things, but not reaching Brexit day, passing it, and still not agreeing on something that’s actually on offer.

For this was an extension agreed? We could’ve had April 1st as the first post Brexit workday, lost opportunity… :(

4173

It seems there’s still a Tory faction wanting to renegotiate the backstop the EU has said again and again they will not negotiate.

Also Barnier suggesting that a no deal could be followed by British capitulation some months after to finally accept the deal, and that the EU would accept that. It seems no deal has become the likelier outcome from an EU perspective.

I still think there’s a chance May will commit sepukku by unilaterally withdrawing article 50 and letting whoever else suceeds deal with the mess anew.

4174

An opportunity for next year instead. Or perhaps 2021.

4175

Deutsche Bank is now (yesterday evening) putting the chances of a no deal Brexit at 25%, the chance of May’s deal passing at 15%. Current favorite to happen seems to be May’s deal + customs union at 35%, if I understand correctly.

4176

I could live with Mays deal + Custom Union. I think it’s a far better option than a 2nd referendum and gets us most of the way there. I don’t think the ERG can stomach it though since it restricts the ability to make trade deals with other countries.

4177

I think that’s kind of funny, considering a small country like Britain is only ever going to make crappier deals than with the massive clout of the EU. Yay, we get to make our own deal where the US forces us to lower our standards and take it up the *ss! So much winning.

4178

Yeah my impression this was the whole point of Brexit?

This + immigration control + control over our own laws.

4179

I suspect the thinking behind those odds are that the die-hard remainers are more likely to cave and accept the Customs Union deal, than that the die-hard leavers are to capitulate and support May’s deal.

4180

Hmm…
No indicative votes on Wed?

4181

I think Barnier is right in that the things people don’t like about May’s deal won’t disappear if there is a Brexit with no deal. They’ll return as soon as the UK tries to negotiate a trade deal, or any other deal, with the EU after Brexit. Want a trade deal? Pay the divorce bill.. Want an agreement on something else? Reopen the Irish border and accept the backstop. And so on.

4182

I think the prevailing thought on the Brexiteer side is that this changes as time goes on in a no-deal scenario. e.g. the longer the UK holds out the more favorable the terms. Negotiate to pay half of the divorce bill, attempt to negotiate “alternative arrangements” to avoid backstop etc. No deal is essentially a reset switch where we’re bound by nothing.

This may well be hubris but Mays deal is so toxic to hardcore Brexiteers. The (remote?) possibility of a better deal is more attractive than a bad one.

4183

Hard to believe that the EU’s position on such things will grow softer after the debacle of a no-deal Brexit. I’d say that’s a fantasy, and they should rather count on the EU adopting a harder position later. And it isn’t helped by the likes of Farage revealing his real agenda: The destruction of the EU.

4184
4185

More confirmation of what those sick twisted evil cunts pushing for no deal actually want to inflict on us

A messy link and cut n paste are due to avoiding linking the Daily Mail.

The Daily Mail, which is supportive of Theresa May at the moment, has an exclusive story about a letter from Sir Mark Sedwill , the cabinet secretary, to cabinet ministers about the dangers of a no-deal Brexit. It may not have been one of those letters written deliberately so that it would be leaked, but one assumes Downing Street will not be too upset about its appearance in the public domain.

Here is an extract from Jason Groves’ story in the Mail.

Sir Mark’s 14-page letter warns:

  • No-deal would result in a 10 per cent spike in food prices and the collapse of some businesses that trade with the EU;

  • The government would come under pressure to bail out companies on the brink;

  • It would hamper the ability of the police and security services to keep people safe;

  • It would lead to the reintroduction of direct rule in Northern Ireland for the first time since 2007;
  • A recession will hit the UK and the pound’s depreciation will be ‘more harmful’ than in 2008.
  • Our legal authorities and judicial system would be put under ‘enormous pressure’ …

The letter will now be kept in the government’s files and could be released in the event of a public inquiry into the handling of Brexit.

Sir Mark, who also serves as the government’s national security adviser, warns that no-deal would affect our security services. ‘Our national security would be disrupted,’ he says. ‘The UK would forfeit access to criminal justice levers. None of our mitigation measures would give the UK the same security capabilities as our current ones.

‘A no-deal exit would enormously increase pressure on our law and security authorities and on our judicial system. The UK would be less safe as a result of this.’

Sir Mark warns no-deal could lead to the break-up of the UK, saying: ‘The stability of the union would be dislocated.’

He says Northern Ireland would face ‘more severe’ consequences, particularly as the lack of devolved government would require direct rule from London.

‘The running of Northern Ireland under No Deal is a sensitive issue,’ he says. ‘The current powers granted to the Northern Irish secretary would not be adequate for the pace, breadth or controversy of the decisions needed to be taken through a no-deal exit. Therefore we would have to introduce direct rule.

And an intersting thread about the actual pain and suffering inflicted at a human level.

People will die, and those calling for no deal know this.

4186

I try to avoid posting too much rhetoric but here’s some of the Brexiteer material for comparison.