4207

And another reminder what minorities face due to Brexit

4208

This seems functional.

4209

Let’s take a look at what the professionals think:

Latest Betway Odds

Brexit Date:

10/1 Jan 2019 – Mar 2019

11/10 April 2019 – June 2019

11/2 July 2019 – December 2019

12/1 January 2020 – June 2020

16/1 July 2020 – December 2020

14/1 2021

9/4 Not before 2022

So it looks like the next 3 months are the tipping point. No deal, then the odds are in favor of a really long process (interesting that there is no “remain” line)…

4210

I think “not before” may include this, though indirectly. For betting purposes, you need a bright-line date.

4211

The only group of people less trusted by their leader by the cabinet are the shadow cabinet :) What a sorry shower.

4212

Seems like pretty poor odds, considering.

4213

BBC News is just showing an empty podium. Very apt.

4214

Another extension… sigh.

4215

That can only mean a CU in the political declaration, right? Or it’s just blather, of course.

4216

I’m unclear how this will work. Does she mean a extension only to 22nd May, or does she pretend to get a longer extension but no elections?

4217

Listening to the statement, it seems like the plan is to blame Corbyn for her failure to get her own party and government allies to back her deal.

4218

She seems to mean only until 22 May. Which, really, I don’t understand and what’s the point?

4219

I’ve been rewatching The Thick of It of late, and wanted to see what Malcolm Tucker might’ve thought of Brexit. Apparently I’m not alone:

https://www.bigissue.com/culture/alan-partridge-vs-malcolm-tucker-how-our-iannucci-exclusive-broke-internet/

4220

From HIGNFY (a satirical news show):

image
image.jpg1560×880 445 KB

4221

She has actually learnt from the EU negotiations! She is using sequencing. A requirement for the negotiation even to happen is that Corbyn:

  1. Agrees to pass the WA.
  2. Agrees to abide by the outcome of runoff voting if an agreement can’t be made.

So yes, it probably means a CU, but there would be a vote in the house between WA without CU and WA with CU, which May probably figures she has at least some chance of winning.

Yep

In order to have time to pass the legislation. What she wants is to be able to go to euco on 10th and say “The Commons has agreed to pass the WA, the Labour party is onboard so Tory rebels can’t scupper it, can i have extension to 22nd like you said I could.”

In the unlikely event the plan comes together I’m sure the EU would agree.

4222

It’s amusing seeing all the same commentators who have been going on about the strength of the EU’s negotiating position pretending the EU will not bank concessions made in the political declaration, making them binding even on a future PM Boris (perish the thought).

WA would certainly maintain a customs union until past the next UK election and the EU would not agree to a deal w/o a customs union if customs union was in PD.

4223

Yes, I agree. In fact even if the UK leaves with no deal, all the elements of the deal on offer will return as requirements in any future deal between the UK and the EU. Why not?

4224

I feel the same way about trumpers in the U.S. You are not alone.

4225

Mays speech in a nutshell:
“We need to end the uncertainty”
uncertainty increases intensifies

EDIT
Thanks @Fifth_Fret :)

4226

uncertainty intensifies