5333

The EU has made consumer goods, things like cellphones, and air travel cheaper. But it has not improved the economic lot of the lower and middle class. It’s generally made those peoples poorer, and worse off. That’s more true on the continent, because of the Euro, but it remains true in the UK as well.

But this was never really about economics. It was, and is, about ideas, and working class Britons felt their identity was under assault. If asked, they would likely choose poverty over wealth, if it meant preserving their world.

5334

I don’t think so dude. You guys kind of fucked yourselves.

According to one study, the referendum result had pushed up UK inflation by 1.7 percentage points in 2017, leading to an annual cost of £404 for the average British household.[7] Studies published in 2018 estimated that the economic costs of the Brexit vote were 2% of GDP,[8][9][10] or 2.5% of GDP.[11]According to a December 2017 Financial Times analysis, the Brexit referendum results had reduced national British income by 0.6% and 1.3%.[12] A 2018 analysis by Stanford University and Nottingham University economists estimated that uncertainty around Brexit reduced investment by businesses by approximately 6 percentage points and caused an employment reduction by 1.5 percentage points.[13] A number of studies found that Brexit-induced uncertainty about the UK’s future trade policy reduced British international trade from June 2016 onwards.[14][15][16][17][18] A 2019 analysis found that British firms substantially increased offshoring to the European Union after the Brexit referendum, whereas European firms reduced new investments in the UK.[19][20]

There is overwhelming or near-unanimous agreement among economists that leaving the European Union will adversely affect the British economy in the medium- and long-term.[a][39] Surveys of economists in 2016 showed overwhelming agreement that Brexit would likely reduce the UK’s real per-capita income level.[40][30][31] 2019 and 2017 surveys of existing academic research found that the credible estimates ranged between GDP losses of 1.2–4.5% for the UK,[39] and a cost of between 1–10% of the UK’s income per capita.[27] These estimates differ depending on whether the UK does a Hard or Soft Brexit.[27] In January 2018, the UK government’s own Brexit analysis was leaked; it showed that UK economic growth would be stunted by 2–8% for at least 15 years following Brexit, depending on the leave scenario.[41][42]

So, in the short term, Brexit has fucked you… But in the long term, Brexit has FUCKED you.

But… How do you think it’s going to be better?

To use your analogy, it’s not a cookie. It’s cyanide. Eating it isn’t going to make you better off. It’s going to do bad things

I mean, seriously, lay out the actual series of events that you think are going to transpire, where Brexit happens and you are better off.

Because there doesn’t seem to be any scenario that exists in the real world where that happens.

It’s like you’re about to smash your own testicles with a hammer, and you’re saying, “just wait until I’m finished, then you’ll see.”

I don’t see how this is going to work out well for you.

It seems like you are doing something really dumb, and you don’t actually have any rational reason to think it’s NOT dumb. It’s like you are just rejecting the notion of doing rational analysis at all.

5335

I would love it if the EU was like NAFTA but it isn’t. Trade is not the defining feature of Western civilisation, there are indeed things more important than it. Which is why Brexit has won.

5336

That’s not because of the EU. It’s because of corporate greed and multinational conglomerates. The lower and middle class people in the western parts of the EU are much, MUCH better off than the same group of people in the United States. Our poor districts looks like bombed out Syrian cities or Brazilian favalas.

So I would argue the EU has helped limit the downward trajectory of the underclass as opposed to what’s happened in the United States. Trust me, the EU is rosy compared to here when it comes to crime, healthcare, housing, upward mobility, etc. In fact, when it comes to having the “American Dream” the latest report told Americans to leave America and move to Europe because you have a much better chance of improving your lot in life there than one does here.

The EU has done better for its people than the United States, yet Boris and Brexit want to go the US route which is a recipe for disaster.

5337

You keep trying to equate liberals with moral philosophers, but it just doesn’t hold.

Martin Luther King Jr was a liberal. It does not matter whether he carefully considered the arguments of white supremacists or if he instinctively denounced them as obviously vile. He was a liberal either way.

5338

I have never posted dishonestly. What reason would I have to do so?

QT3 is somewhat of an echo chamber when it comes to Brexit. The reality isn’t that the entire country is gasping in horror. In actuality half the population of the country desires Brexit and it crosses party lines (although more so in 2016 than it is today).

Take my main reasons for supporting Leave:
a) Sovereignty - I do not wish my country to cede (ever increasing) control to the EU
b) Democratic values - We had a referendum and Leave won - to ignore the result shakes the foundations of democracy in this country.
I value these two things highly. More so than any short term impact on the economy.

Leave voters knew Brexit would negatively impact the economy. The entire Remain campaign was centered around this fact and they still voted to Leave. Large swathes of those in lower economic brackets voted to Leave. By ignoring the result you ignore their vote.

Brexit is not a good vs. evil battle. It’s about two groups who each believe that their own ideology is better for the country. Brexit is a positive thing to many - in 2016 it was for over half the electorate and we should respect that result.

5339

I remember when it was predicted that there would be an immediate recession straight after a Brexit vote. Does anyone remember that recession? So as you can see economists say a lot of things. I personally believe there will be short-term loss with long-term gain.

  • Wages will rise
  • There will be less pressure on the NHS
  • Less pressure on the environment
  • We won’t be slaves to self-serving MP’s [e.g Tony Blair] who only lust for power in the EU
  • There will be no chance of Federalism into an EU superstate
  • We will not have to bear the recent folly of the newly elected EU leaders of which some including the EC President have and are being investigated for corruption
  • We will have less foreign criminals coming into this country
  • We will have less migration from citizens of other nations who claim EU citizenship and who are somehow allowed to pass through half the continent to Calais.
  • Less pressure on benefits,
  • There will be more thinking of regions outside London,
  • It will make democracy ascendant in this country once more,
  • It will show the intelligentsia that Orwell spoke of how unwelcome their snide remarks of anti-British sentiment are in this country and so forth.

No its still a cookie. For me staying in the EU is cyanide. EU worshipers have been talking about remain and reform since 1973 before the EU as an entity [we joined the ECC in 1973]. John Major didn’t reform it, Tony Blair couldn’t reform it, Gordon Brown didn’t bother trying to reform it and David Cameron couldn’t reform it. These EU politicians ultimately care very little for the people of Europe, they don’t care for cultures that they do not understand and only want to push their political practices upon others at all costs in their bid for vainglorious power.

5340

But Draxen… I’d really like you to answer this. A big part of the Brexit push was that the NHS was going to get funds that were earmarked for the EU.

But in a horrific twist, not only is NHS not getting a dime, but you are going to gut the NHS by bringing in American private insurance. The vultures are circling your island and trust me… I’m an expert I’m an expert in this - it will decimate your healthcare, and will send untold numbers of Britain’s into abject poverty.

Why is it that Brexiters are not just stopping with Brexit itself, but are going to take so many of the good things about Britain and throw them in the trash by doing things by way of trump?

This is not “just” about Brexit. And if you think it is, then I feel bad for your naivety. You don’t want to wake up in trumpland. It’s a fucking nightmare. But T this point it sounds like you’re not just OK with this, want to usher it in as fast and hard as possible. And for a well-meaning, and thinking human being, it just doesn’t add up. Extra sovereignty is not worth inviting Hitler to sack your country.

5341

I bet those Americans won’t move to Greece or Romania. They will change their tune when they do.

5342

[quote=“M_Wolf, post:5341, topic:78214, full:true”]

I said Western Europe, thanks for ignoring that.

5343

I haven’t frequented this place in a long time, and you may or may not remember me, or things I’ve written in the past. I have always enjoyed your posts though, and in particular your passion. Caring is the most admirable trait in the world, and you care a lot. That is rare, in my experience.

I know Europe very well, especially Western Europe.

I will use France for this example though.

To be Middle Class is to be poor, by American standards. You own a TV you bought ten years ago, it’s small. You use an old a phone, but it works, so that’s okay. Your car, if you’re French, is older, and may not even have AC. That was an option, and you couldn’t afford it. It will also be French, and terrible, but with the state subsidies, it was a sensible buy. When you go on vacation, you choose a prepaid one, through something like Club Med, because you have to know what the upfront costs are. Because you don’t have any money and you can’t afford to take any risks. If you don’t do a prepaid vacation, you just go to a friends house.

You do have good job security, it’s almost impossible to get fired, but jobs are also very hard to come by because it’s so hard to fire people, and every hire is a huge risk. That’s also why wages are so low.

There are advantages, long lunches, good healthcare (in France but not the UK), generous home loans, and a slower pace of life. But the last twenty years, they haven’t been good ones. Wages have stagnated, costs have risen, and taxes, taxes are crippling. And there’s no way out, there’s no way to improve you situation.

The EU has done better for its people than the United States

No, it’s been good for the technical classes. Lawyers, doctors, bankers. That’s it though.

*Social Mobility may not exist in any real way, anywhere.

https://www.amazon.com/Son-Also-Rises-Surnames-Princeton/dp/0691168377

5344

No you didn’t, you are lying or possibly drunk.

That still doesn’t say western in it.

5345

I bet those Americans won’t move to Greece or Romania. They will change their tune when they do.

Most Americans would hate Romania, I really love it though. Poverty has preserved it.

5346

You were saying?

5347

Did you just wake up from a decade long slumber?

Here let me bring you up to speed. Boris, you know the idiot leading your country, wants to bring in American companies who don’t give a shit about your people, your environment, nor your health. Hell, they don’t give a shit about us and they’re American companies. Not only that, as I’ve said a crapload of times, Boris and other Brexiters want to bring in American health insurance companies, FOR PROFIT, which will put immense pressure on the NHS, and in the end, cripple it.

Dude, we’ve had practically negative wage growth for 40 years. Why on Earth would you think American companies would do anything more for you than they do for us? Cause they like Brits and suddenly won’t want to penny pinch every last cent of profit off the backs of your more expensive than non-union southerners?

WAKE UP.

5348

The NHS is quite bad.

5349

The referendum was a political campaign. So heavily biased information was used by both sides. This was just a campaign slogan. The intent was to highlight the money saved by leaving the EU and what other uses that money could be used for. Remain had plenty of their own slogans that were also generous with the truth.

There would be massive outcry if this were to ever happen. The NHS is widely celebrated here and the backlash would be enormous. The NHS is worthy of an entire topic by itself.
Boris said recently (likely due to the described political fallout should it occur):
“Under no circumstances would we agree to any free-trade deal that put the NHS on the table.”

Trump is widely unpopular here. As a consequence Remain supporting media label Boris as being “Britain’s Trump” as a form of political attack.

This isn’t a good vs. evil battle (despite all the media outcry). It’s just a political fight.

5350

This is bullshit. The average Frenchman (the average Western European) is wealthier than the average American .

So you are other redefining middle class or you don’t know Western Europe well at all.

I lived 6 years in the US and living standards were certainly (subjectively, and not markedly) poorer for the middle class (defined as those making up to twice median income, so using the standard economic definition) back then, even if nominal income was higher.

5351

Ah, Western civilization. I love how it pops out in threads like this…

But anyway, you are right. The defining features of Western Civilization are enlightenment and progress, but one can disagree, and the UK and the US are lately doing a good job of opting out of it.

5352

LOL. You want bad, try a county hospital in Tennessee. Oh that’s right, they’re all closing and people just die if they need emergency care there now. All over Republican controlled states, half of counties have such a glut of healthcare that people who used to survive heart attacks now die from them. Same with seizures and other emergencies. And those people who do get to a hospital, with no insurance lose their houses, and everything they hold dear. Need an ambulance ride? You now owe as much money as a car costs if you have to go more than a couple of miles! Need some kidney dialysis and “out of network”? How does half a million dollars every 3 months sound? How about $7,000 for an Emergency visit where the only thing they did was give you some Advil?

Unless you get a good job with great benefits, if you get sick here in the United States you are SCREWED (unless you live in a Democratically controlled state).

Yes the NHS has some awful scandals. But unless you live in a premium place in the United States and have the above situation, you’d be begging to be back in the NHS. For those that whine about wait times? I once had to wait 6 months to find out if I had colon cancer from extreme bowel bleeds. I haven’t heard any horror stories from Britain along the lines of “we think you have cancer - see you in 6 months when the schedule clears - hope it doesn’t spread!” I once had to wait 2 days to get a room when I had pancreatitis. Shifted between hallways and screens - it was awful. I wanted to go home rather than be in that situation. I bring up the waits because that is the most common complaint I see from individuals bashing the NHS.

And the reason the NHS has trouble is because the Tory government keeps starving it of proper funding because their ultimate goal is to get rid of it. So blaming the NHS isn’t really the right thing to do here is it? More like the right thing to do is blame Brexiters and Tories for the NHS woes as they are the ones who hope to make it so unpalatable people ask for something different.

@draxen - did you miss the conversation Trump had with Boris, where Boris said he was interested in what American for-profit insurance companies could do for Britain after trump brought it up?