Brexit, aka, the UK Becomes a Clown Car of the Highest Order

[draxen]

All the current trade deals are with/through the EU and will therefore evaporate when a no-deal Brexit occurs, and it generally takes something like 5 years to negotiate and finalize a bilateral trade deal where none exists.

There has been some progress but not enough.

Signed UK trade agreements transitioned from the EU

the UK hasn’t been making its own trade deals for decades, there are likely very few existing civil servants with experience at making trade deals, and no politicians with that experience. So I wouldn’t gamble on a successful crash effort myself.

I agree.
EDIT: Upon reflection… actually I’m not sure. Surely we have some experts faffing about somewhere :)

[playingwithknives]

Many left the civil service rather than be associated with Brexit, or found it impossible to work with Brexiter politicians.

That’s why the Brexit departments are loaded with grads or the idiot offspring of the politicians and the politicans friends, it’s the scrapings from the bottom of the barrel.

[scottagibson]

This is a far more clear picture of what a no-deal Brexit means for the UK.

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) estimates that with no deal, 90% of the UK’s goods exports to the EU by value would face tariffs. The average tariff on UK exports to the bloc would be 4.3 percent, it calculates, while the average on imports from the EU into the UK would be around 5.7 percent. Tariffs in some sectors – for example in agriculture and food, the car industry and textiles – would be “significantly higher”.

* The National Audit Office said in a report in October that the number of customs declarations the UK authorities need to process might rise from 55 million a year to 260 million. New border systems would be needed, but in September the body responsible reported that 11 out of 12 projects might not be ready in time.

* Reports by Dover and Kent councils have warned of massive disruption, with long delays and jams on the roads. The UK government has estimated that Channel ports could be hit for up to six months in a worst-case scenario. The head of the Calais region in northern France has insisted that French ports will be ready for a no-deal exit – as long as authorities on the British side are prepared.

And there are lots of other issues. Car manufacturers rely on just-in-time parts arrival, so car manufacturers have already begun to shift manufacturing plans and capacity to other EU countries. Financial services require free movement of people and friendly residency regimes, so financial services companies are either shifting their operations to the EU or planning for significant losses in business if the remain in the UK.

No-deal Brexit: what would ‘WTO terms’ mean for UK-EU trade?

[Fifth_Fret]

I expect the UK would just waive all incoming checks (just pretend it hasn’t really left!) that it doesn’t do already. This doesn’t solve the problems (British exports would be crippled, or even ‘exports’ in the sense of moving parts around internally to a company across the border, and in the long term a lot of our industries would be destroyed) but it might work as a stopgap.

[playingwithknives]

The only thing the government has promised we will have post no deal is potable water.

They aren’t even pretending medicines and nuclear medicines are guaranteed anymore.

Whether or not they can deliver on that promise is another thing of course.

But given the choice between dead Brits and darkies the Brexiters will just praise how the funeral industry will be booming.

[Fifth_Fret]

The only thing the government has promised we will have post no deal is potable water.

There will be adequate food. I read that somewhere.

[playingwithknives]

Nah

Expect Brexit food shortages 'within weeks' as industry 'hardest hit' by no-deal

[playingwithknives]

I have dry/cupboard stockpiles but will need replenishing.

We have our metaphorical packed suitcase by the door. I’m not going to ignore the advice of prewar European jewry, even if others are ignoring the same warning signs. I have the option of SE Asia if need be and I’ve been investigating finance roles in KL and Singapore.

[Fifth_Fret]

All of that assumes the UK is going to operate within international trade law. If it were looking at food shortages, it won’t.

[BloodyBattleBrain]

We have our metaphorical packed suitcase by the door.

Bye!

Some of us will stand and fight though.

You enjoy the weather there though.

[playingwithknives]

Yes, the lessons of history really prove minorities can fight back against militarised industrial nations. I’ll pass on your superb advice to Bosnian Muslims and Crimean Tatars and others like them.

Let’s see how the fight is going against the US branch of the ethno-nationalist movement.

Hmm not too well I’m afraid

[wavey]

I have dry/cupboard stockpiles

Same here - slowly building up a well-stocked larder since January, originally with more hope than now that it wouldn’t be needed and could one day be donated to a food bank. I’ve noticed Paddy Power and Betfair are taking bets on what will be the first thing the government will ration. But here we are, a wealthy country in 2019. Goodness knows what will happen to my father-in-law, and his daily cocktail of medication, there are already delays fulfilling prescriptions.

Meanwhile the disaster capitalists, and their useful idiots, rub their hands gleefully.

[playingwithknives]

I need statins, blood pressure, thinners and aspirin on a daily basis due to cardiac disease, and regularly take anti allergy, ibs and reflux medicines but my life doesn’t depend on the latter pills.

I’ve been ordering them before running out and have about 6 weeks stocks.

[Timex]

So as you can see economists say a lot of things. I personally believe there will be short-term loss with long-term gain.

And…what is your belief based upon?
Do you have any expertise in economics?

• Wages will rise
• There will be less pressure on the NHS
• Less pressure on the environment
• We won’t be slaves to self-serving MP’s [e.g Tony Blair] who only lust for power in the EU
• There will be no chance of Federalism into an EU superstate
• We will not have to bear the recent folly of the newly elected EU leaders of which some including the EC President have and are being investigated for corruption
• We will have less foreign criminals coming into this country
• We will have less migration from citizens of other nations who claim EU citizenship and who are somehow allowed to pass through half the continent to Calais.
• Less pressure on benefits,
• There will be more thinking of regions outside London,
• It will make democracy ascendant in this country once more,
• It will show the intelligentsia that Orwell spoke of how unwelcome their snide remarks of anti-British sentiment are in this country and so forth.

Explain how you think any of these things are going to happen.

Because you just listed a bunch of things that you would like to have happen… but there’s no actual mechanism by which they WOULD happen.

You seem to be driving your beliefs based upon hopes that somehow if you do this, good things will magically occur, without any actual economic mechanism by which they can happen. And then a bunch of this stuff seems based on vague fears of “foreign criminals” and xenophobia.

This is bullshit. The average Frenchman (the average Western European) is wealthier than the average American .

So you are other redefining middle class or you don’t know Western Europe well at all.

Bear in mind that Incindiary Lemon is a Russophile, who is pushing Russian propaganda, which is generally directed at the goal of damaging the EU (and western countries in general), as a means of elevating Russia on the international stage.

Take my main reasons for supporting Leave:
a) Sovereignty - I do not wish my country to cede (ever increasing) control to the EU

The problem with this logic, as I see it, is that the UK leaving the EU isn’t actually going to do much for its “sovereignty”.

Ultimately, the UK is going to have to continue trading with the EU. That’s going to require that the UK come to terms with the types of rules that the EU has, because the UK does not have enough power on its own to dictate terms as an outside actor.

By leaving the EU, the UK is essentially just ceding power as an internal influencer of EU policy, but it’s still ultimately going to need to adhere to those rules anyway. It’s still going to be affected, it just won’t have nearly as much say in how those rules are made.

It’s kind of like when Russia pulled out of the UN, and then lost their ability to veto UN intervention in the Korean war.

Pulling out of the EU isn’t going to actually make the UK any stronger, just as pulling out of the United States wouldn’t make say, South Carolina, any stronger. South Carolina still wouldn’t be able to really change how it behaved, because it’d still need to work with all the other states, unless it wanted to become some kind of little hermit kingdom ala North Korea. It’d just lose its representation in government.

[magnet]

I expect the UK would just waive all incoming checks (just pretend it hasn’t really left!) that it doesn’t do already.

I’m afraid it’s not that simple.

The UK wants to trade under WTO rules. But the fundamental principle of WTO rules is that all imports are treated the same regardless of origin (unless they come from a country with a free trade agreement, but after Brexit this exception would no longer apply at the UK border).

So if the UK wants to waive checks and duties for EU goods, then it must also waive checks and duties for incoming goods from China, Russia, India, etc. This would devastate domestic producers, and the UK government knows it.

Of course they could ignore WTO rules and only waive checks for EU goods. This would result in retaliatory tariffs from every non-EU country. Not only would this cripple UK exports, it would negate all the benefits of trading under WTO rules.

Faced with this dilemma, the UK have already made clear that they will apply tariffs to EU goods as required.

[KevinC]

Explain how you think any of these things are going to happen.

Immigrants are the cause of their wages not going up, pressure on the NHS, pressure on the environment, and all that ails the UK, of course. If they just throw all the dirty foreigners out, Britain will be great again!

Bear in mind that Incindiary Lemon is a Russophile, who is pushing Russian propaganda, which is generally directed at the goal of damaging the EU (and western countries in general), as a means of elevating Russia on the international stage.

He literally sleeps with a Vladimir Putin body pillow. And by literally I mean I don’t have proof, but I’m pretty sure!

[Timex]

Faced with this dilemma, the UK have already made clear that they will apply tariffs to EU goods as required.

Which will, again, fuck over their economy as they will be hindering the majority of their trade.

[wavey]

Parody Boris Johnson (BorisJohnson_MP)

[Fifth_Fret]

Of course they could ignore WTO rules and only waive checks for EU goods.

I’m pretty sure this is exactly what they’ll choose, faced with the alternatives. Or maybe some mixture (who knows; the country will have gone rogue at that point!).

And yes, all those downsides you list (not least ignoring our international obligations!) are correct. It’s not a solution, but I expect it’s what will happen as a stopgap to keep the country fed.

And I’m sure our taxes will be taken as compensation to companies who would otherwise leave.

This way lies ruin. I’m not saying it’s fine. I’m just saying we won’t starve.

[MarinusWA]

Once you made the choice as a politician to align yourself with the brexiteers no-deal is the only logical course. Beforehand, the brexiteers won’t believe the bad stuff that will happen (Porject Fear) and afterwards when said bad stuff actually does happen, they’ll just blame it all on the EU. It will never get back to the people who caused the no-deal.