Fantasies and wishful thinking. Citation please? (of EU’s so-called history that is - not the idiot peddling the claim).
To be sure, I don’t see it as an impossibility that the EU will agree to some minor changes, if the PM begs for some flowery language to make the pill easier to swallow for parliament. But no amount of flowery language is going to make the EU change the fundamentals of the deal in favor of the UK. Anyone who thinks otherwise is utterly deluded about who has the actual power in this negotiating situation.
Even agreeing to minor adjustments would be doing the UK an enormous favor, and would only be justified if it would guarantee a deal. The EU is prepared for a no-deal Brexit, and have been for some time now. I think many Europeans at this point just want to tear the band-aid off and get the bleeding over with - and the majority probably don’t care about what kind of Brexit it is.
draxen
5497
I included the option as I was trying to comprehensively list all possible scenarios. Even if the EU were willing to renegotiate the ERG are saying they would still vote down anything that resembles Mays deal. However, the possibility remains despite the unlikeliness of it actually occurring.
Either government figures really do believe no deal is unstoppable or they don’t and there is another reason why they would be saying so.
Here’s Geoffrey Cox saying similar things last week:
https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/no-deal-brexit-will-happen-on-31-october-even-if-mps-vote-to-bring-down-the-government-geoffrey-cox-says/
According to The Times , the attorney general believes that MPs are not able to block a no-deal Brexit from happening on 31 October, even if Mr Johnson loses a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons and the government collapses.
You realise we’re talking about Boris Johnson, right? And a Boris Johnson whose best shot at staying in power is forcing a hard Brexit to take back the Kipper vote?
It doesn’t surprise me that someone like Boris would think that way. That certain other people would cheer it, though; certain other people whose argument theoretically stands on the principle of Democracy?
draxen
5500
Even I recognize that to push through a no deal outcome in this fashion is a terrible thing. Will Boris really pull us out of the EU through such maneuvering. I’m not entirely convinced. If it does happen I’m definitely not cheering the method - although I would cheer the outcome. I’d still prefer a deal and an orderly exit.
What is the alternative though at this point?
Remain wins and we have a 2nd referendum or revoke A50. Both of these outcomes are unpalatable to me.
Leave by dubious means or remain and have the referendum result thwarted.
I find it difficult to maintain moral integrity in the face of such a choice.
I honestly can’t see any difference between I’m cheering the outcome despite the method and I’m cheering the method. If that were the only way you can get what you want, should Boris do it, or not?
Oh, you already answered that question, never mind.
Yes?
Occam’s razor - the solution with the fewest assumptions is probably right. Why is it hard to believe that they mean what they say? Especially when they’re most likely right in saying so?
I don’t dispute that a No Deal is most likely to happen. I don’t understand why you assume this means that Leave backers are secretly making plans for an outcome which contradicts what they’re saying. You’re assuming Boris’ people are playing 4D chess, when every indication is that they’ve gotten on the back of a tiger, have no safe way to dismount, and don’t care how many people the tiger eats, as long as it isn’t them. I get that you don’t like that conclusion - but come on. There is no evidence for anything else.
Here’s a much simpler prediction, which doesn’t require any extraordinary or out-of-character assumptions:
- Boris doesn’t lift a finger to prevent no-deal Brexit on October 31. His efforts will be entirely focused on preventing a no-confidence vote (unless he sees an electoral benefit from letting it happen).
- The UK leaves the EU on October 31 with no deal. The only realistic alternative - that parliament votes through May’s deal - would probably be a huge bonus for Boris in a forthcoming GE (Boris: parliament betrayed the people), so he might actually allow that too.
- When the general election comes, Boris will lead a campaign based on nativism and nationalism, demonizing foreigners and blaming the EU for everything bad that is or has happened. With the opposition in disarray and disunited, that has every chance of working - regardless of the kind of Brexit that happens.
I think the realistic alternative is that a general election is forced before that (and given the government’s behaviour, they clearly see a GE in the very near future, too).
This would also be a huge boon for Boris, to the point where I think he might not care what happens - so long as he’s pushing hard for no deal, a GE before leaving might well be less risky than one after leaving. Either way, he gets to crush the Brexit party.
Agreed - that’s what I mean with saying that if he sees an electoral benefit from provoking a no-confidence vote, he’ll of course take it. Either way, I think the UK leaves the EU on October 31, absent a quite unprecedented mutiny in parliament.
Unprecedented in recent times, certainly.
Miramon
5506
Seems to me all that’s needed for the unprecedented mutiny is for two tories to reject the whip.
And for those Tories and every opposition MP to vote to revoke, which most of them have voted against in the past (not to mention that a good few opposition MPs are ardent Leavers).
Not hard for there to be a no-confidence vote. But as the battles that ousted Theresa May showed, there’s no workable majority for anything else. It’s not sufficient for Parliament to vote that they don’t want a no-deal Brexit - the UK has to vote for a line of action that can actually be effectuated (and currently, the only such possibility seems like Revoking Brexit, which - as @Ginger_Yellow notes - has also been rejected many times).
Otherwise, the UK goes crashing out on Oct 31.
And I’m just not seeing where the kind of leadership, clear thinking and self sacrifice required for that kind of last-minute rescue operation is going to come from.
Miramon
5509
There’s definitely no leadership or serious plan from any party.
Does there need to be a vote to revoke?
A few options:
-
VoNC followed by GE before October.
-
VoNC followed by GE after October with Boris requesting extension.
-
VoNC followed by Boris attempting to schedule a GE after October - and forces Parliament to elect a caretaker PM for the remainder of the Fixed Term Parliament Act’s 14 days, who request an extension. After which we have a GE (probably after October).
Extension seems much more likely than revoke, or indeed crashing out in October.
And it’s not clear at all what will happen after that.
I’ll agree extension seems more likely than revoke, but I’m far less confident than you that either Boris will extend or Parliament will elect a caretaker.
Parliament needs to vote for revoke if it’s to be unilateral. It’s likely the Council would accept a non-voted revoke, but it might not.
I agree it would be unusual. But when was the last time Parliament took control of the order paper? Brexit has already thrown up some quite dramatic behaviour in Parliament, and it’s only going to be get crazier the closer we get to the crash out day.
It’s not about it being unusual, it’s about Parliament demonstrating more will to remain than it has throughout this entire process. And, indeed, doing that immediately before an election.
Yeah, nothing to worry about here.
