It’s not about the EU. If the GFA fails, Tories don’t want the voters to blame them. So they’re creating a situation which requires that the border be closed, while proclaiming loudly that it won’t be them who closes it.
So you’re not the person who wrote:
So which is it?
That aside, I find your current acceptance of a sea border to be quite interesting, because that is essentially the point of the original backstop proposal which - a few months ago - you argued vehemently against. Of course, you’re allowed to change your mind - and more power to you if you have - but considering that you still refuse to use the actual word for that solution, I find it difficult to believe the change of heart is real.
I did not claim it’s a fact - I pointed out that this is the obvious motivation behind the UK government’s lack of any kind of plan for the border. What is a fact is that Boris Johnson has been spending the past months engaged in exactly this behavior, so there is no reason to assume the inevitable consequences of leave will result in any different behavior.
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Anyone who cares about the border will blame the government anyway. Because even if the government “had no choice” but to close it, they will retain the option to move it into the Irish Sea.
“We will move the customs border to the Irish Sea” is not exactly the same as “We will move the customs border to the Irish Sea and we will ask for permission before moving it again”.
Though crashing your economy over the difference seems unwise.
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It’s both. It’s a solution that the government have prepared in the event of no deal. Although it is in and of itself the absence of any agreed solution.
Seriously - why are we arguing about this?
Perhaps it’s just the wording. I’ll cease calling it a solution and instead call it a plan. It’s the governments plan in the event of no deal.
I don’t recall ever arguing against a NI-only backstop. If I did, then I’ve changed my mind.
Fair enough. I will withhold judgement of the government until more information is available.
and you can be a Eurosceptic without supporting Johnson, and without wanting No Deal. Supporting Johnson and hoping for No Deal are the acts of a xenophobe, racist, ultranationalist and sadist.
Perhaps, but the EU is not the intended audience for the blame-shifting.
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I meant anyone in NI, or anyone in GB who actually cares about NI. They will insist that the government fix the problem regardless of who is to blame. Because the government certainly can fix it.
Anyone in GB who doesn’t carry about NI likewise won’t care about who is to blame.
So either way, blame shifting is useless.
I mean, let’s imagine it in American terms. Suppose the Republicans saw the light on climate change. Their new platform is “Climate change is bad, but it’s not our fault. No plans to actually do anything about it. We could, but we won’t. The important thing is to blame the Chinese, not us.” Do you think that would really win over anyone who is concerned about climate change?
How does this insisting thing work? A lot of people are insisting, right now, that the government cancel Brexit, but I don’t think that’s going to work.
In any event, politicians and parties seek to shift blame all the time. It’s true that it isn’t particularly effective, but they do it anyway.
And the key point here is that the UK can’t unilaterally ‘solve’ the Irish border problem by pretending, in the absence of a deal, that there is no border at all, or that it is at sea. There is another country, another legal regime on the other side of that border, and they have to address the problem of a border, too, and they have broader obligations that don’t allow them to make it up as they go along.
So Johnson pretending this is a viable interim ‘solution’ is tendentious bullshit, and other people pretending that he’s right means either they’ve been conned, or they’re in on the con.
This is remarkably like their actual platform.
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It sure is. And how well are Republicans polling with people who put climate change among their top priorities?
Perhaps that message isn’t intended for those people? Perhaps the politicians engaging in that messaging are stupid, and overestimate its potential effectiveness?
Edit: I don’t honestly know what you’re arguing here. Is it that a no-deal unilateral declaration that the border is at sea is a solution to the problem? Is it that Johnson offers that in good faith? Is it that, should the Irish close the border (as they must), Johnson won’t blame them for it?
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The UK has a long term problem with the Irish border. There are only two long-term solutions: either the UK as a whole is in a CU with the EU, or just NI does so. UK-EU integration is wise, but it’s rejected by Tories. So that leaves NI-EU integration.
And Tories have tipped their hand and basically admitted that it’s their long term goal. Obviously not now, with the DUP in power. So any proposal Johnson makes now is ultimately meaningless. But eventually, that’s their plan.
The only remaining issue is to disassociate NI-EU integration with the “backstop”. The problem with the backstop, from the Tory perspective, is that it’s too vague. So the Tories need to negotiate something more concrete. Again, not now. Because the DUP won’t let them.
I expect that eventually they will propose a CU between NI and the EU. It won’t be “until something better is found” like the backstop. It will have defined exit conditions, for instance it will end if NI votes against it in a referendum. Maybe something about requiring a concurrent referendum on a Irish unification. That might satisfy the Irish, the Tories, and the EU.
Which was my point - there is no solution. What the UK government plans on doing is throwing its hand in the air and saying - we don’t care, let there be a hard border. Because that is what exists the moment the UK drops out with no deal.
Though I’m sure the New IRA and their ilk will appreciate that the UK government leaving the border unguarded for as long as possible. Leaves them with more time to stock up for the times ahead.
You may be right - in which case I apologize for misrepresenting your position. You do argue that a problem with the EU is sovereignty, but it may have been someone else arguing that the NI backstop is unacceptable because it cedes sovereignty over part of the UK to the EU. Which is absolutely a valid point to make - but doesn’t change the reality that it’s the only solution which would have had a hope of lowering tensions. The UK government decided that a few dead people are a fair price to pay to keep the DUP happy.
This is a good post and helpful, thanks.
So there we have it. Boris is going to try to suspend parliament. How very fucking democratic. At this point I have zero interest in pandering to the 52% or respecting the referendum result. This has gotten beyond a joke.
I hope I’ll see you protesting with me in London. I don’t see how the executive suspending parliament to get unpopular decisions through is anything other then an attempted coup.
(post withdrawn by author, will be automatically deleted in 24 hours unless flagged)
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EDIT:
More detailed tweet here:
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I’ll be there (given enough notice to take the day off).
Sadly helicopters exist so it won’t actually be possible to stop Boris making it to the Queen. Unless he can be convinced that the correct route into Buckingham Palace is by zip line, anyway.
Edit: Ah, I misunderstood. He’s already been to the Queen and asked for a time-delayed suspension.
