Now seems as good a time as any to review the government’s own civil contingency report, the leaked Operation Yellowhammer document. The govt tried to play it down as nothing but worst-case scenarios, but
A senior Whitehall source told the Sunday Times: “This is not Project Fear, this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios – not the worst case.”
Some highlights include:
Northern Ireland
On Day 1 of No Deal, Her Majesty’s government will activate the “no new checks with limited exceptions” model announced on March 13, establishing a legislative framework and essential operations and system on the ground, to avoid an immediate risk of a return to a hard border on the UK side.
The model is likely to prove unsustainable because of economic, legal and biosecurity risks. […]
Disruption to key sectors and job losses are likely to result in protests and direct action with road blockades. Price and other differentials are likely to lead to the growth of the illegitimate economy. This will be particularly severe in border communities where criminal and dissident groups already operate with greater freedom. Given the tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade, there will be pressure to agree new arrangements to supersede the Day 1 model within days or weeks.
This is all assuming that the EU plays along and can suspend checks on people and goods traveling to the south. Either way, I’m glad others here are more optimistic than I about how this will play out, because this still looks like a complete leap into the dark with nothing but a tissue-thin idea of a plan on what to do next, rolling the dice on the GFA.
Protests and police
Protests and counter-protests will take place across the UK, using up police resources. There may also be a rise in public disorder and community tensions.
The poor
Low-income groups will be disproportionately affected by rises in the price of food and fuel.
Public water services are likely to remain largely unaffected, thanks to actions now being taken by water companies. The most significant single risk is a failure in the chemicals supply chain. The likelihood of this is considered low, and the impact is likely to be local, affecting only hundreds of thousands of people.
Drugs and disease
i) The Border Delivery Group/Department for Transport planning assumption on reduced flow rates describes a pre-mitigation reasonable worst-case flow rate that could be as low as 40% on Day 1 of No Deal via the short straits [main Channel crossings], with significant disruption lasting up to six months. Unmitigated, this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies. […] While some products can be stockpiled, others cannot because of short shelf lives. It will not be practical to stockpile six months’ supplies.
