draxen
5879
It’s impossible to know what will happen next but this sounds a likely scenario to me:
As I mentioned above about the problem with a snap election.
Boris wants this, of course, because it means he can collect the Leave vote behind the Tories. At the same time, the opposition will be split between Labor (Leave with Deal) and the Lib Dems (Remain). In the best case, he win a majority of seats to be able to force through no deal; worst case, he probably still heads the individually biggest party and is no worse off than he is today.
wavey
5881
Just to clarify, the official Labour position includes a confirmatory referendum on any exit deal.
In his speech in Corby two weeks ago, Corbyn said: “If there is a general election this autumn, Labour will commit to holding a public vote, to give voters the final say with credible options for both sides including the option to remain.”
(source)
Timex
5883
What does this even mean?
magnet
5884
If it passes, it requires Johnson to ask the EU for a Brexit extension.
The EU can refuse, but under the circumstances I strongly suspect that they will grant another extension if asked.
What’s the EU’s motivation to grant another extension? Wouldn’t they want to see… y’know… some sort of plan at least forming? All I see is the PMs arguing about everything and then asking for more time. Will an extension change anything?
It might piss off Boris, which is enough.
draxen
5887
I think the most likely scenario is a GE before October 31st. Essentially a Brexit yes/no GE. Everything else (extensions, provisions etc) occurring right now will probably be moot.
magnet
5888
Another extension would allow time for an increasingly likely general election, which itself could lead to anything from dropping one of the “red lines” to cancelling Brexit outright.
Also, to the extent that the EU cares about public perception it is better if the UK does not appear to have been forced out against its (most recent) wishes. Particularly because the EU has often seemed to hope that the UK would reconsider Brexit.
Finally, it doesn’t really cost the EU very much to grant another extension, whereas a no-deal Brexit would be costly even to the EU. So there is very little reason not to give the UK another chance to fix its mess.
antlers
5889
I imagine the EU preference list is:
- Britain rejects Brexit
- Withdrawal according to EUs offered plan
- Indefinite extensions
- No-deal Brexit
I don’t know what it would take to swap 3 and 4.
Nothing. No deal is always the worst outcome, which is why the vulture capitalists want it.
Timex
5891
I don’t see why the EU would keep extending things at this point.
No Oct 15 election. The government couldnt reach the 2/3rd of MPs threshold required.
We’re about here on the Brexit flowchart
Boris is the first PM in history to lose their first three votes in a row.
JoshL
5894
You can’t fool me, that’s the plot of Primer
No one wants a No Deal Brexit. Everyone - at least outside the UK - is well aware of the potential economic and human costs that this could result in.
I think the EU has already stated it would be willing to give an extension past October 31 back in July. Initially, the reason was to give Johnson time to prepare politically. 2-3 months is not a lot of time for a new PM, so this was basically the EU extending an olive branch to a head of state in a very demanding political position. Boris - of course - had no interest in that.
If a new government or coalition were to replace Johnson, it would seem highly unlikely that they wouldn’t extend the same offer to them. Especially if it were a government/coalition that was actually willing to negotiate in good faith.
At the end of the day, the cost of granting the UK another extension are small compared to the expected costs of a No-Deal Brexit, so as long as there seems to be a reasonable chance the latter can be avoided, the EU will probably go for that.
I very much doubt any EU politician would want to be the one with the onus of having kicked the UK out, but eventually all it takes is one head of state not to agree to extend, Macron getting pissed at the Brits yanking the EU’s chain, some Bannon friendly head of state deciding British “will of the people” must be done, something like that could happen in theory…
strategy
5897
Incidentally, I think Corbyn has done well these past two days. Hasn’t fallen for any of the traps laid out for him by Johnson and has had a laser sharp focus on putting the pieces in place to prevent a No-Deal Brexit before accepting an election.
Pretty fun to listen to him roast Boris in Parliament as well.
The UK is not out of the woods yet, but even if you don’t like him, Corbyn deserves credit for doing what is needed to neutralize Johnson’s unprecedented attempt to sideline parliament.
draxen
5898
I’ve been watching the fillibuster. It looks like a backroom deal has been reached. Most likely:
You can have this law if you give us an election.
So election on 15th Oct?
EDIT: From my earlier post. I think this is what is happening.
