No Deal, barely mentioned 3 years ago and now normalised to the point the racists are clambering for it will make some people very rich. It’s a common goal for those people. No one plans this out meticulously, suggestions are made and dinners are had and drinks at the club go ahead and things happen. That a social network stretching around certain individuals have placed their money where they stand to profit doesnt mean a hidden Evil Genius has a plan on a whiteboard with X’s joined by dotted lines to Ys leading to a large pound sign. All they do is let each other know No Deal will be good for them and leave everyone to their own devices.
That Johnsons sister and the former Chancellor are also plugged into the same social networks isnt qanon stuff. This is how the system works. That’s all the Establishment is, a larger network of social networks interlinking military, civil service, politics and industry.
If Labour decided to rip up its manifesto and institute a single policy of guaranteeing that someone will come to your house and and take a shit in your kettle it would still be more popular than Jeremy Corbyn.
and in another “nothing like Trump” update, we are all shortly to unfortunately know what Johnsons johnson looks like
Oh god now I’m thinking of that Black Mirror episode again.
To be honest, there’s a whole bunch of UK intelligence and police units I’d put above any foreign powers or random criminals in the theft of that laptop. The only real question is which faction controls the unit in question, Johnsons mob or one of his many opponents.
Edit: Tory party reaching out to UKIP voters who prefer their party to settle things with brawling.
My MP. Hopefully we can vote him out next election.
And, we’re here again! At the end of the month, unless something changes, the UK will leave the EU by automatic operation of law.
What will happen this time?
My guess would be Boris Johnson is thrown out and there’s an extension to allow for an election.
If that doesn’t happen, it’s no-deal.
I honestly do not see how the current government can secure a deal at this point. And I am skeptical they are even trying.
spiffy
6369
By law, BJ has to ask for an extension if no deal has been secured. So the will in your sentence should once again read maybe but probably not
That’s not automatic operation of law; it’s conditional on someone obeying it. If he doesn’t, it’s not clear what happens. Will the courts request an extension instead? Will they do so in time? Will the Queen remove him? I do not know. I do not think anyone knows.
Nor is such an extension guaranteed.
Nor is it guaranteed to be Boris Johnson as PM at that point. Or indeed anyone.
Aceris
6371
Although the “collusion with the EU” stories about the bill drafting are pretty ridiculous, one thing that concerns me is there is are multiple obvious loopholes to the benefit of the EU27 in the Benn-Burt bill.
- If the EU27 make an extension offer at 11:50 on 30 October then the government is legally obliged to accept it within the next 10 minutes, and it is impossible for the house to “decide not to pass a motion” as there is not time for a division.
(I only spotted this one when I was writing the post)
2. If the EU27 make an extension offer late on a Friday, then unless Bercow allows parliament to sit at the weekend and summons the MPs back to the commons (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recall_of_Parliament) the government is once again legally obliged to accept the extension, whatever it is.
(I suppose Bercow probably would allow a recall, since there is a clear procedure for it)
Given the EU council ends on a Friday this is highly likely to occur, and I do wonder if this intentional on the part of the drafters.
Have I misread anything?
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2019/26/enacted/data.htm
/looks at our American posters and wiggles his eyebrows.
Ah those halycon days of rule of law.
It’s also possible that drafting legislation at speed is going to be prone to all sorts of errors.
Aceris
6374
They had the entire recess to draft it.
I thought this was one they raced through before prorogation? Maybe I should have said “passing” rather than “drafting”. Either way, it went through the process very quickly and that seems likely to lead to all sorts of unforseen consequences. Or maybe forseen by some and not others.
AFAIK, the EU can’t offer an extension. The UK government needs to apply for one and then the EU decides on whether to grant it.
The EU can certainly suggest they would be open for an extension, but can’t start the proccess of granting one.
Aceris
6377
The process appears to be that the UK asks for “an extension to (date)” (which legally the government is now required to do) but the EU can respond with “an extension to (different date) instead”. The UK can then decide to either accept or reject that. There has also been speculation on the EU side about the EU attaching additional conditions to an extension, although I have no idea if this is actually legally possible (probably not).
An extension needs to have a justification for it attached, and the EU, in theory, will consider whether those justifications are valid or not.
In practice, I think any extension request will be approved unless the situation deteriorates steeply (which I would say there’s a chance of).
It’s difficult to forsee what the Brexiters will do next because we apply moral and ethical values and its hard to imagine what happens in the absence of them.
My fear - and tentatively prediction - is that Boris does not ask for an extension, and so we end up watching another supreme court case. I do not have any idea which way they’d rule, but dragging the courts into a political mess is not good for our institutions.
Is it me, or is Johnson’s ‘plan’ offer the same vague ‘alternative arrangements’ argle bargle we’ve been hearing for years?
Aceris
6382
I think is utterly clear cut. While there are several irregularities in the passage of Benn-Burt, primarily SO48 and Queen’s consent, both of which represent important constitutional principles, those are clearly “proceedings in parliament” that the court cannot rule on. On the other hand the bill imposes clear responsibilities on the government with very clear intent. If Boris breaks the law here everyone except the lunatic brexiteer fringe (which of course is much larger than we would like) would see it as such, and the court would rule very swiftly. I still do not believe Boris will do this, but I haven’t been a good predictor of their strategy.
I guess the exception would be if they have a leak from the clerks saying they told Bercow he had to ask for Queen’s consent at the third reading of Benn-Burt and this comes out on the 18th or something. Ugh. That would be an awful mess. I can really imagine Boris trying to use this to further fuel the flames and set himself as picking a fight with a cheatign remainer establishment :(
