Isn’t that the solution originally floated by the EU, of which May said no Prime Minister of the UK could never agree?
kedaha
6505
The border down the Irish sea has been mooted by commentators and individual politicians for several years as the most feasible solution to the current impasse. UK said no at every opportunity.
Yes, I know, I’m talking about an explicit and emphatic refusal by May.
This one:
Pretty sure it was this deal she was talking about.
draxen
6507
lol yup. It’s the original deal proposed by the EU and rejected by May but with added sprinkles.
Boris gets to say, “The UK is leaving the EU customs union” and the EU get to say, “NI is staying in the EU customs union” and NI get to reap the financial benefits of potential rebates.
Yes, the sea border was the very first one they tried. The DUP torpedoed it. It’s interesting they’re cool with it now.
Half of England standing with Sinn Fein put the shitters up them
I imagine that the looming prospect of a no-deal Brexit and the likely consequences for NI peace and prosperity has finally gotten their attention.
There’s another really interesting consequence: if the Commons pass the deal on the first reading (with the intention of, say, making it conditional on a confirmatory referendum), what happens to the Benn amendment regarding requesting an extension? I’m not sure, but I think in this circumstance it may not apply. But I haven’t managed to find the text of the amendment to confirm.
wavey
6512
Text of the Act here: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2019/26
I think in those circumstances, an extension would still need to be requested, as there is also the requirement that the Lords debate the agreement after the Commons approve it.
Wouldn’t they also have a first reading?
wavey
6514
I assumed (maybe wrongly!) the Lords would only debate it after the Commons passed it? And if the Commons were going to vote it would be on the 18/19 Oct, and I’m not sure if the Lords would be sitting then - all the news reports I read only mention the Commons sitting on Saturday.
But I do remember that being a potential loophole in the Act - if all the conditions are met to not request an extension, the govt could then stall any further legislation in the following weeks and we’d still automatically no-deal Oct 31.
Agreed.
It’s also a weird deal to try and sell to the UK public. Of course, it’s way better than no deal, but absent some other horse-trading, this would appear to be a significantly worse deal than May’s Backstop-based deal.
The Backstop has always been a temporary solution to the impassé over the BFA, with the biggest problem with it being that it is very unclear how and when a permanent solution could be implemented. BoJo’s new deal is essentially the same, except that now it is being proposed as a permanent arrangement (with a small sop being thrown to Northern Irish businessmen).
It’s hard to see why anyone who voted against May’s deal, would find this deal any more palatable, when it appears to be an objectively worse deal for the UK. I guess if you are a Brexiter MP, who fears this may the last chance for Brexit, but otherwise I can’t see it. Also hard to why anyone would buy into BoJo’s spin that this is a new and improved deal - are people really that stupid? Oh… don’t answer that.
Brexiteer fatigue maybe, and also if its presented as a good deal then the vast majority of people, who “just want to leave” or otherwise resolve this, would probably be happy with it.
These being the same people who don’t know, or care to know, the finer details of proposed deals, or how (objectively I would venture to say) there isn’t any deal available as good as what we already have.
I’ve just come back to the UK from my Spanish reserve forces adventure, and I overheard some of the lads saying they’d like to have to have stamps in their passports…
The whole situation right now brings to mind a certain character waving a certain piece of paper and claiming peace in our time, except I believe that person was infinitely more scrupled than out current leadership.
I’ve just spent the last 2 weeks in the company of several people who seem pro Johnson/pro leave, saying “at least he has a backbone,” and “at least he’s getting things done.”
Mind you, the ones who thought otherwise, like me, didn’t bother to engage in debate (I cane here to soldier, not debate politics) so it’s entirely possible only the truly ardent bothered venturing an opinion.
magnet
6518
May’s deal kept the entire UK in a customs union with the EU. This deal only keeps NI in a customs union, the rest of the UK exits completely. If you don’t live in NI, it’s quite different.
Hmm - not quite sure what you are referring to.
You may be thinking of the Chequers draft, which was a UK government suggestion which would have kept the UK in the customs union wrt goods, but not wrt the other four market freedoms of the EU. This agreement never came up for vote in the UK, though, because the EU turned it down flat (I think it was Tusk who pointed out that the four freedoms are not negotiable).
May’s agreement would not keep the entire UK in a customs union with the EU. It is true that there is a transition period in which the UK is bound to the single market, but it was strictly time-limited (until Dec 2020) and could only be extended once by mutual consent. In addition, it has the backstop which moves into effect when the UK leaves the customs union, unless a satisfactory solution has been negotiated prior to that time.
In short - it is strictly better than what Boris seems to be proposing. May’s deal gave the UK a 2-year transition period in which it could prepare for the Brexit without the current “will we-won’t we” uncertainty, thereby lessening the shock of transition. And it allowed the Irish border problem to be resolved later, when the UK will potentially have better cards on its hand, than during this chaotic political period.
But what is it people have been saying again? Boris and his cronies want the hardest possible Brexit, so that they can profiteer on the chaos that follows? I guess this delivers it - if they can get parliament to approve it. I can certainly see the EU approve it (Brexit fatigue, as you note) - but I just don’t see how they get it through Parliament. Neither Corbyn nor the LibDems gain any of the things they want from this deal, and the MPs who have left the Tories didn’t leave because they wanted a Harder Brexit. So unless there are a bunch of Brexit Labour MPs who are willing to jump ship, it’s difficult to see that this has a chance.
magnet
6520
A single market is not the same as a customs union.
During the transition period, the UK would be in a single market with the EU. This is time limited.
After the transition period, the backstop has the effect of keeping the entire UK in a customs union with the EU, until the “future relationship” is mutually agreed upon.
During the transition period, the Union law applicable pursuant to paragraph 1 shall produce
in respect of and in the United Kingdom the same legal effects as those which it produces within the Union and its Member States, and shall be interpreted and applied in accordance with the same methods and general principles as those applicable within the Union.
Until the future relationship becomes applicable, a single customs territory between the Union
and the United Kingdom shall be established (“the single customs territory”). Accordingly, Northern Ireland is in the same customs territory as Great Britain.
Ah yes - you’re absolutely right. I had forgotten that she had essentially gone for a “temporary” UK-wide backstop, when the DUP would not agree to a NI-only backstop. So yes - in that respect, the deal is certainly better from the hard-core “Brexit” perspective - though it throws the DUP’s interests under the bus.
Hard to see how this gets him more votes in parliament. We’ll see, I guess.
draxen
6522
Interesting thread on Brexit deal latest:
Long interview with David Cameron on the beginning of the whole Brexit mess.
As an American trying to make sense of it all, I found it pretty interesting.
