6544

That’s not how parliament works though. MPs can pass a motion or not, they don’t select between options. For the Benn Act to be fullfilled and No Deal to happen before further extensions, a motion of the form specified in 1(2)(a) must be passed; the govt can’t just say that failing to approve this particular deal therefore means no-deal.

6545

Juncker doesn’t have a veto.

6546

Let’s see what happens Saturday. If the pass an amendment asking for a confirmatory referendum and/or forcing an extension anyway, I think the EU would grant an extension (there would be reason for it then). All Juncker is saying is that there’s no reason for an extension as things stand now.

Seems the voting Saturday is going to be down to the wire.

6547

Is it any better than staying in?

Does it deliver on the leave promises?

Does any of that matter to the entrenched Beleavers?

Answer is no obviously.

I shall weep for a bit if this deal gets passed, then look to see how I can adjust.

What a total waste of national time and energy and money and goodwill.

6548

Ofcourse it isn’t.

I never thought I’d support Farage but I hope he obstructs this deal.

6549

Farage has already condemned it.

6550

1 year ago in this thread…

Let’s see what really happens in the end. Clown cars be hard to drive even if there’s some kind of road ahead

6551
6552

What happens if both motions fail? And is that likely?

6553
6554

If both fail (and if there’s no final say referendum attached I’m really hoping they do), nothing really changes. By the end of Oct 19th, the Benn Act kicks in and compels the govt to request an extension from the EU.

6555

Vote prediction spreadsheet here:
https://t.co/XEFmyWKcvt?amp=1

Doubtful it’ll pass Parliament (surprise, surprise)
For: 306
Against: 313
Unknown: 16

EDIT:
Now tied - lol
For: 311
Against: 311
Unknown: 13

6556

Still not convinced on the “US food regulation is fine, lets import US food post-Brexit” thing.

and fuck knows what will happen to the vote tomorrow. Polls and pundits wont help, ive more chance of getting a hedge wizard to poke through a shit in a spot of crapomancy to predict the result.

6557

I’m pinning all my hopes on that block of votes which have been essential to remainers all through this process; without whose help we would have left the EU in March…

The Tory ERG block, of course. Truly unsung Remainer heroes, each and every one. Let’s hope their bug-eyed fanaticism wins out once more, rejecting the deal, and helping us further on the path to eventually remaining.

6558

I’d bet on the deal passing. The ERG were more pro.Boris than anything else.

On one side, I am angry at the EU giving even more concessions (the UK has pretty much used all the goodwill it had in the EU. Opinion polls show the public is very unwilling to give them any special leeway anymore -it was not the case at the beginning of Brexit-), but I also want us to get to the trade deal negotiations.

Not because I think anything will come out of them, but because then the negotiations will go through without so much pressure. I think there’s a pretty significant possibility the UK is hoping for a trade deal that is untenable. If the EU has been a though negotiating partner while the EU was a member of the Union, when it’s just a competitor it will be much tougher. We might be looking at a no-deal scenario by the end of 2020-2021. Again.

6559

Well, at least if the deal does go through we won’t be looking at a 31st October precipice with lorries stuck at Dover, as everything carries on as-is during the transition period.

6560

I would not hold out much hope for that. Maybe a couple of them will vote against it but all the ringleaders are on board. It really all depends on the likes of Grieve and Soubry.

Even if there is a deal which seems unlikely, it’s still effectively no deal (assuming a Conservative government and an FTA more or less in line with the new PD) compared to now. Basically nothing on services, no regulatory alignment for goods beyond the bare minimum needed in an FTA. For the industry I cover, it will be exactly the same as no deal.

6561

I just have serious doubts the precipice will look much different once late 2020 comes around, given the British newfound love for pushing deadlines to the limit.

6562

@Fifth_Fret I was wrong on this point, the Lords are sitting on Saturday to debate EU withdrawal, looks like the debate will be in parallel:

6563

Most projections I’m seeing point towards the likelihood of the vote passing. What am I missing?