6927

Force borrowers to take even bigger haircuts, and give rather than loan more bailout money to Greece. Even the IMF said so.

6928

Spread out the budgetary pain over a longer period by demanding a less aggressive primary fiscal position, at least in the initial phases, and extend the debt reprofiling much longer. That would have mitigated the economic shock at least somewhat. I’d also have made the required political/administrative reforms more progressive.

Most lenders other than central banks, ie the only ones “the EU” can force anything on, took a massive haircut (ca. 50% nominal, 85% NPV), and the main obstacles to larger ones were legal (ie the impossibility of imposing losses on holdouts where bonds didn’t have collective action clauses). And however sensible it might have been, there was no chance of getting a proper fiscal transfer past the Northern European states, either politically, or possibly in Germany’s case, constitutionally. Even as it was, there was a real risk the ESM would be found to violate the constitution.

6929

Now it’s a battle against state level entrenched corruption and vicious thug like authoritarianism, and this is what pits Russia against the west and why Russia is so keen to boost Trump, since he is the most likely to turn America into another Russia; i.e. a large scale criminal enterprise.

I remember listening to an NPR report in the 90s, the Moscow correspondent was trying to explain how things were, he finally settled on this.

The gangsters are driving on the sidewalks to get around traffic.

That doesn’t happen anymore, and hasn’t happened since 98 or 99. In general, everything is a whole lot better, Russians drink less, live longer, and make more. And this is why Putin is popular.

Russia is a place with deep seated problems though, and problems that go back to the Tsarist period. Russia is a corrupt place, but Moscow isn’t really the problem. It’s society at large. The rule of law is stronger in Moscow than it is in the countryside.

One of my friend has a small technology start up that became modestly successful, and this attracted the attention of his small town mayor.

The mayor came to him, and gave him an offer. I’ll buy you out, for a fraction of the companies value, or I’ll take the company from you.

To ordinary Russians the answer to this problem is a strong central government and a Tsar like figure. This works in so far as the worst abuses attract government attention, but it’s no solution. Moscow can’t be everywhere at once, and Moscow has problems with corruption.

I think this is one of the reasons Putin has pushed to reintroduce Orthodoxy into public life. It’s a way to reinstitute public morals.

This east vs west language is a fundamental misread of what’s going on in Moscow though. Russia is recovering from their post Soviet nadir, and that was always going to happen, but Georgia, Ukraine, and Syria were all reactionary steps, that came into response to Western efforts.

Moscow would actually prefer to focus on the domestic economy, if at all possible.

6930

This is nonsensical Putin propaganda.
The gangsters are now running the government in Russia.

Also, Russia has one of the highest alcohol consumption rates in the entire world, only behind other Soviet Bloc states like Belarus.

Hell, a few years ago, they had a mass methanol poisoning in Irkutsk.

Lemon just spouts Putin propaganda. Yes, Putin is popular in Putin propaganda. He rides horses bare-chested, and wrestles Tigers to death. It’s all nonsense.

Putin is an authoritarian kleptocrat. He’s, literally, a soviet KGB agent.

6931

Also, Russia has one of the highest alcohol consumption rates in the entire world, only behind other Soviet Bloc states like Belarus.

Timex, look at a trend line, and tell me which direction it’s moving.

6932

It’s impossible to tell what is actually happening, because there’s no real transparency into the Russian government, since it’s so totally corrupt at all levels.

Putin implemented various prohibitions which supposedly reduced alcohol consumption, but we have no idea what it’s ACTUALLY done, and given the example of the mass methanol poisoning I posted, there’s strong reason to think that it’s still a total mess there. Seriously, they had dozens of people die from drinking freaking bath lotion. There are estimates that nearly 20% of the alcohol consumed in Russia currently is essentially bootleg crap being sold under the table, or as non-potable stuff that people drink.

No information pushed out by Putin and his cronies can actually be taken at face value.

6933

I would argue that they have tried, to the best of their ability, but no amount of willpower (or waffling in the case of Bojo) is going to make the mad promises made by Leave into anything remotely realistic.

6934

This. I don’t know whether there was ever any real appetite for this from Merkel et al., but regardless of however sensible and humane it would have been to forgive debt (and I agree 100% with this), I just don’t think it was politically feasible.

6935

Anyone who wasn’t corrupt or a raging alcoholic would have improved Russia after Yeltsin. Putin was lucky he came in when he did. Giving the benefit to Putin is stupid, or should I say “convenient” as it serves your purpose.

6936

Giving the benefit to Putin is stupid

If you’re going to make that claim, then you have to explain why he doesn’t deserve credit.

6937

I don’t know if this is actually happening (my guess is no, because this election is more about power than enabling/stopping Brexit), but my Brexit reading popped up this Google recommendation recently: https://www.bestforbritain.org/

There’s an article about it on the Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/03/best-for-britain-tactical-voting-only-way-stop-brexit and criticism: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/tactical-voting-could-deliver-remain-victory-in-election-study

6938

It takes time to transition from a state, central- planned economy to a free market economy. Furthermore, Russia was a billion miles behind the rest of the free-market world in technology. People don’t just change their ways in a couple years. This transition is very painful and it takes time. Wile the transition happens things tend to go to hell until technology and an understanding of new work/job ideals finally make sense. Putin came as people began to use new technology and to work within new system for employment. Russia had solidified itself as a global market exporter of minerals, oil, and natural gas, so the country got on solid footing.

Timing is everything. If Putin was president when Yeltsin was, things would have totally sucked and they would have blamed him for being a crap leader. Of course the thing is, Yeltsin was an idiotic drunk who let corruption run rampant which certainly didn’t help. So once again, anyone who instituted common sense goals would have been seen as Russia’s savior when Putin came in.

6939

A. K. A what Brexiteers do? Aka the anti EU propaganda machine?

6940

But Russia also want Corbyn elected, which you are implicitly supporting, so you are a traitor, and a Russian stooge.

We’ve seen how much damage the executive branch can do without the help of the legislature and you want to put another Putin friendly politician in charge?

Of course there are reasons to in this scenario but really I’m just pointing out the hypocrisy of “you want something that Russia wants therefore you are evil” line.

6941

Not enabled their corrupt governments lies to get them into the Euro to be a better market for Northern european exporters.

And after that maybe not blamed Greece entirely for the inevitable consequences of the scenario that the EU leaders themselves actively enabled.

6942

Just to be clear here, Incendiary Lemon has a long history of parroting Putin’s propaganda. I wasn’t calling him a Russian stooge simply because he supports the Brexit. There are lots of Brexit supporters who aren’t doing so out of an allegiance to Russia. But that’s why HE is supporting it.

But if you do support the UK leaving the UK, you should be asking yourself why Russia wants the same thing.

It seems as though that’s what you’re getting either way at this point. Which, to be crystal clear here, I agree is bad.

This is kind of the problem we’re also having in the US now. Up until fairly recently, the GOP held a stronger anti-Russian position than the Democrats. But now the GOP is entirely owned by Russian interests. The Democrats have adjusted somewhat to fill that gap, but I suspect that given the chance, the Democrats would be fairly accepting of a lot of Russian expansionism, rather than be willing to face the direct confrontation which will be required. (Tulsi Gabbard is the most obvious example of this.) I hope that the Democrats will hold on to their current recognition that Putin’s government is one of our most significant threats on the international stage.

They should have traveled back in time and not allowed Greece to join the EU? Or just back in time to not allow them to use the Euro?

That doesn’t seem like much of a plan in terms of what the EU could have actually done at the time of the crisis.

6943

Right I get you! I think I might have IL on ignore so I was just looking at your reply in isolation. Sorry

Yep, it’s the Alien vs Predator election.

The Euro. But then the EU accepted basically no blame for the situation when the crisis hit.

6944

Putin is popular because you cant really say otherwise; and I know plenty of Russians, it’s no secret to them that Russia is corrupt as fuck and that the government is the biggest player.

6945

This view accords with what my Mrs says regarding Russians and belorussians.

6946

Stalin enjoyed 100% support of the Russian people!