6947

I’m not particularly keen on Corbyn, but I don’t see any reason to fear him becoming PM. The UK is not the USA, and the kind of absurdities enabled by the Imperial Presidency model in the US are simply unthinkable in a parliamentary system.

He’s not going to become PM without the support of the Lib Dems and SNP, and he won’t be able to carry out his policies without their support. Of course, I’m assuming the LD have learnt from their stupid coalition with the Tories the last time, I guess there’s no guarantee of that. But still - Labour’s policies and the realities of a Labour government are not going to be the same.

I’m probably not the only one who wishes the UK would just get this over with, but the coming election is going to be fascinating. Plaid Cymru leading of their election by talking Welsh independence is … interesting. That Johnson is willing to sell North Ireland and Scotland for power is obvious, but surprised to see this being put into play in the election.

6948

Sure, but that’s a failure. If you’re thinking about what the EU does well and what it could do better, this is in the latter category, right? That’s all I’m saying.

6949

Forum favourite - and thorn in the government’s side - John Bercow has now been replaced as House of Commons Speaker by one of his deputies, Lindsay Hoyle.

In keeping with tradition, fellow MPs Caroline Flint and Nigel Evans “dragged” Hoyle to the Speaker’s chair after the result was announced. Historically, the powerful job on some occasions led to his predecessors’ deaths on the orders of the monarch of the day.

6950

Not sure I agree. I think that there are some advantages to a federal Europe; but there are also problems, and at the end of the day, there is no democratic support for the idea (even the most pro-Euro states can’t muster more than around 30% support for the idea). That’s just the reality of it.

The failure, to my mind, was in the way the European institutions and government ignored all the red lights that were blinking for years before the crisis. Greece probably shouldn’t have been allowed into the Eurozone in the first place, and once there, European institutions and governments should have reacted to the worrying developments which were - if not obvious - definitely indicated.

6951

Tories/Brexit Party are almost as compromised as the GOP:

6952

No report from the isc has ever been released as quickly as a Grieve is demanding. But never mind because there’s a narrative here.

6953

Yeah the problem isn’t Russian interference, Tory and BXP being compromised or the existence of the report but people wanting to see it. I’m sure they can wait, there’s hardly anything important happening at the moment.

6954

Except the leaks say there was no substantive Russian interference.

6955

You know, I think we are perfectly capable of fucking things up with Russian help.

40 years of deliberate misinformation and political neglect.

6956

It’s a failure, but it’s not a failure of the EU as an institution, really. It’s a political failure of national governments. I’m all in favour of a proper federal superstate, but the EU is not that.

6957

That’s a well reasoned response.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/08/19/long-read-russias-economy-under-putin-in-numbers-a66924

The numbers paint a clearer picture of the mixed results as the job of turning Russia into a modern and efficient market economy is far from over. Below we pick out the main indicators and divide them into three main categories: macroeconomic, social and quality of life.

Here are a few highlights.

The fall of Russia’s federal external debt as a share of its reserves is so extreme that you have to use a logarithmic scale to capture the change: external debt fell from 1,243% of reserves in 2000 to 8.9% today.

following deep reforms to the tax service and a huge improvement in tax collection, coupled with a modest rise in oil prices, the federal budget is back in surplus. In the boom years oil prices had to be $115 for the budget to break even; now they need to be $43. The make-up of the budget has been transformed.

We have devised the “Despair Index” which is the sum of the unemployment rate, inflation and the poverty rate, which better captures what life is like in the lower third of society. In the 90s Russia’s despair index soared to 2,200, largely thanks to hyperinflation, and was about 10 times higher than any other CEE country. Today Russia’s despair index compares favorably with the rest of the developed world.

The article does a reasonable job of separating out the governments role in the recovery. Oil revenue is a given, more or less, but tax reform isn’t for example.

6958

Interesting article. I see they devised their own index to quantify how much Russia has improved under Putin. They report on many traditional indicators as well. Mortgages. Phone ownership.

Here is one word that does not appear in the entire article: “inequality”.

6959

Here is one word that does not appear in the entire article: “inequality”.

Inequality matters when there’s no economic growth, or life for the average person is quite difficult.

That’s not true in Russia. Life, by any metric, has improved for the layman.

They’re still transitioning to a market economy though.

For example, if I buy a cell phone, and I take it home, only to find out it’s actually broken?

That’s my problem.

The shop will not take it back, and I won’t get store credit.

6960

I don’t think people complain that Putin has made life worse for Russians. They complain that Putin has built an immense kleptocracy, that he steals from the poor and gives to the rich. Your defense amounts to, “You can’t complain, because the previous guys stole even more”.

Inequality always matters, because justice always matters.

6961

They complain that Putin has built an immense kleptocracy, that he steals from the poor and gives to the rich.

The kleptocrats predate Putin, they emerged in that transition to an ostensibly free market. Many of these people were already quite corrupt though, they profited off communism, and they profited off the fire sale of state assets.

Inequality always matters, because justice always matters.

Nothing in life is fair, if you go looking for it, you’ll end up with a broke heart.

Some are born with great gifts, and fortune. Others are cursed with immense burdens. Some take advantage of what they’re given, others squander it.

This also goes into the argument of what is just. Is this an equality before the law argument, even we don’t even have that, or is it an equality of outcomes argument, and that’s just a very bad idea.

6962

Hmm, at great risk of distraction, imho equality matters, and still matters when growth is mad crazy.

Maybe it actually matters even more then, as you get a lower stratum of society that isn’t desperately poor but can see others getting stupidly rich.

A bit like what we have in the west.

6963

Philosophical tangent, but surely that means everything is fair in the long run/overall!

Also, life not being fair isn’t an excuse for robbery, especially state organised robbery.

I happen to think it’s great that life isn’t fair because it means I can try and better myself without having to worry too much about whether it’s totally fair or not.

Before you think I’m some crazy selfish guy, I happen to think win/win is the best basis for any negotiation or business, even speaking from a purely lazy point of view!

Also, it should come as no surprise that people’s definition of what’s fair changes markedly depending on what skin they have in the game.

Its totally not fair that some people in a rich country like the UK are homeless and hungry, and really it isn’t, and that’s an easy thing to say.

But will you find me donating meaningful sums of money or time or energy to change it? Nope. And that applies to most people too!

Anyway, tangent aside, what do people think about Jo Swinson’s chances?

As much as I admire and broadly agree with her stance on staying in, I think it’ll be a hard sell to the electorate and opens her up to easy accusations of “betraying” the 17.4, and if being undemocratic, never mind that what the 17.4 voted for, in all its shapes and forms, is nothing like what is on the table, and never mind that democracy by definition allows periodic changes of mind, simplistic messages win out at election time (arguably at any time) because the electorate lacks the will/time to educate themselves about the relevant issues, at least to anything close to the degree required to fulfil their duties as responsible citizens.

Lest you think I am talking out of my arse, I refer you to this book

https://www.amazon.es/Democracy-Realists-Elections-Responsive-Government/dp/0691178240

which makes for hard reading, both literal (small print, many technical words/jargon and footnotes, small form paperback) and intellectually/emotionally (the general thrust being the idea that governments represent the will of the people, which is the basic tenet of our democratic belief, is basically rubbish.)

6964

I’m not looking for fairness. I’m looking for unfairness, so I can criticize it.

And they have prospered under Putin. He is the leader now, so he is the one who should be criticized now.

6965

This is exactly what Putin did.

He is those people.

6966

What group of people are electing this awful asshole?