7413

Sometimes you gotta let idiots kill themselves.

7414

Deadly traps idea for the win. I’ve told non-forum people I know about that one.

7415

I will counter that prediction!

  • The transition period is extended for at least another two years.
7416

How long is Europe going to let this go on? At some point the constant uncertainty become more expensive than just crashing out, no?

7417

If there’s one everso slight positive, it’s that Johnson will have the capital within his party to pull this off, if he wants to avoid another no-deal cliff edge.

7418

Swinson might get the boot too.

7419

Already on it, have been stocking up the larder with dry foods, cans, water purification devices etc since no-deal was a possibility.

But would genuinely welcome suggestions for best charities to support those most likely to be neglected over the next four to five years.

7420

Why should this keep going on, if there’s a stable majority capable of pushing it through?

7421

Is that clear? Will the new Tory majority back a deal like the one Boris is like to get?

7422

IDS and Raab projected to be safe.

7423

I think so, he did clear out most of the reasonable Tories before the election, and the new cohort will all get elected based on his manifesto to - and there are few words I currently want to type less than these - “get Brexit done”. I don’t think there will be much room for dissent, and the ERG types will likely realise their best chance will be to put up with a delay of a year or two to eventually get what they want.

7424

and the Tories take a dilapidated former mining constituency.

I wonder if the polls were out in the Tories favour. Labour below 180?

7425

First Past the Post makes elections less democratic for everyone - not just left-wing voters:

Untitled

7426

Eh if no BXP Cons would have taken it, unbelieveable.

My in-laws are minutes away from that constituency, i know the area. Thatcher is was their Satan.

and they just voted for Thatcherites. Idiots. Goodbye Nissan. Hello 50,000 new unemployed.

7427

I’m sure this is just different use of language, but I’m watching BBC and they’re talking about the exit polls and they’re saying that X number of constituencies are too close to call in the poll and they have those constituencies in the Tory blue stack. Either they’re too close to call, or they’re strong enough projected Tory wins to call them for the Tories. So what am I missing?

7428

Heh - I think you’re overly optimistic. The election result does not resolve the essential contradictions of the English delusions about Brexit.

Here’s my prediction: January 2021 will see the UK no closer to leaving the UK than it is in January 2020. Boris has a withdrawal agreement that he’ll put through, but he got it by caving essentially on every point that the EU insisted on in return for some symbolic victories. Getting that through now will be hard enough. He then has to get a trade deal that is palatable to the Brexit clique. Now - he is obviously mercenary enough that he’ll cave on every point that the EU presses him to, in order to “get Brexit done”, but he’ll be doing it with what is now an increasingly radicalized Tory party. Where he previously had a problem with the centrist wing of the party, his new problem is going to be the right wing of the party. Will they give him the political space he needs to abandon all their Brexit promises? It’s possible, I suppose, but I kind of doubt it.

7429

Even within the margin of error the Tories still have a convincing majority.

7430

I don’t doubt that at all. I’m asking a process / definitions question out of curiosity.

7431

Alan Johnson just laying into Jon landsman On ITV is the best television of the entire election. Calls Momentum a cult.

7432

See my comment above. The question will be - does Boris have enough of a control over the party to push through a Brexit which is fundamentally incompatible with all of the rationales the Brexit wing have made for Brexit over the years? It’s possible - he certainly has more political capital than May to do so, and if he gets +86, he can tolerate a quite large rebellion. But it’s still going to be a tough ask, and a difficult political task.

I think the only way Brexit “gets done” for certain is to crash out with a Hard Brexit. And while Boris talks big about doing so, I’m not convinced that is really what he wants, given how politically damaging that is likely to be.