draxen
7433
We’ll now leave the EU legally on 31st Jan. Remain will be dead. Peoples Vote will be dead. Any extension to the transition period for further negotiation of the trade deal doesn’t impact that. We will have already left.
Aceris
7434
Yes, he does. I don’t think you quite understand how much power this result gives him within the party.
OK, then I guess it should happen pretty soon now?
I’ve been picturing Brexit in American terms as sort of like Republican debt brinksmanship with the panic over the “fiscal cliff”. They claim they want to go over, but they don’t, really. But I guess now the Tories are ready to go over?
Still plenty of room for an almost-like-being-in-the-EU trade deal, though.
Really bad nerd analogy coming up: The primarchs Alpharius and Omegon meet the alien Cabal and is shown 2 choices on some kind of 40k rip off of Galadriels Mirror, 1 is to support Horus and his Heresy and accelerate the rise of Chaos so it burns out really quickly and saves the galaxy and aliens like the Cabal, the other is to join with the Emperor and choose a slow death over millennia where everyone dies.
At this point its best to quickly let the Tories have their no deal, get through a few years collapse and allow a united left and centre to rise from the ashes and pile of corpses. Get used to eating lots of swedes and turnip.
strategy
7439
You do realize that until the transition period is over (which can easily stretch into years, unless Boris chooses to crash out hard or can somehow wrangle the Brexit crowd into accepting EU dictates in record time), the UK is still bound by EU rules and still pays money into the EU budget - the only difference is that you have lost membership of all institutions and no longer have any say in anything.
Point being - from January 31 you are effectively members of the EU, just without any democratic representation whatsoever. So … yay, victory… I guess.
draxen
7440
Very true. That is a fight for another day though.
I think it’s likely that Boris won’t cross the ERG even if that risks leaving with no deal.
Absolutely a victory. It leaves no course for Remain or a 2nd referendum. Honestly, I wouldn’t mind a 5 year transition period if that’s what’s required for trade negotiations. At the end of the transition we will leave.
As I said above though. If the ERG force a hard Brexit I don’t think Boris would pit himself against them. We’ll find out next year…
Or, as seems more likely, continue in a relationship which is, for the most part, like being in the EU but without a say. It has to be a deal he has the votes for, or it’s permanent transition, which amounts to the same thing.
draxen
7442
Why is it more likely?
It looks like he just won a large majority on a manifesto of Leaving. He was a key figure in the Leave campaign. None of this indicates a soft Brexit to me. Still… it’s possible I guess
Tim_N
7443
At this point he’ll probably have more votes for no-deal Brexit than soft Brexit in parliament.
Yes, I agree. But won’t it be easier to keep extending and trying to get that better deal?
antlers
7445
Johnson has to be vastly more powerful in Parliament now than before the election, right?
I thought he was pretty close on getting his “No Backstop” deal through before the election. What would stop him from getting it through now, especially when there is no hope left for Remainers?
Timex
7446
Basically, Corbyn is trash.
draxen
7447
“In Uxbridge and South Ruislip it’s a straight fight between Count Binface and Lord Buckethead.”
EDIT: Woa - that’s a huge preview…
https://twitter.com/Ian_Fraser/status/1205283844682866689
Tim_N
7448
Not saying Corbyn doesn’t deserve plenty of blame, but Remain was fractured between Lib Dem and Labour. With first past the post you can easily have the majority not wanting Brexit but the pro-Brexit party winning parliamentary seats in a landslide.
The ‘Corbyn sux, leader unpopular’ is a nice feel good thing for Labour to tell themselves, but I think they’re in for a tough ride the next five years whoever is leader. It’s easy to forget Ed Miliband did horribly two elections ago, and he was so very centrist.
The SNP also pretty much wiped Labour out of Scotland a while ago.
Aceris
7450
Ed Miliband was up against Cameron and didn’t have Corbyns advantage in 2017 of being able to appeal to both sides on brexit.
People understand tactical voting. If they aren’t doing it it’s because they don’t want to back the contender party.
He was chosen on the basis of hard left votes and that he was more to the left (Red Ed) than his brother David Milliband, a charismatic individual who wouldnt have done as badly as Ed, who was well, not charismatic.
Aceris
7452
Also, the tories are going to find it very hard to either keep their northern leave voters or get their southern leave voters back in 5 years time. I think a capable, less extreme labour leadership could easily win in 5 years time.
