7554

Thanks for the info. I’m not well informed RE: Labour’s internal politics so it was interesting to get your insight. My pick would be Lisa Nandy. She comes across very well in the interviews I’ve seen with her.

7555

Boris (well, Gove), say’s no indyref2 for Scotland.

7556

I expect Boris to do some good old fashioned gerrymandering as part of his platform.

7557

I’ve debated for days now if I should post this link. It not intended as a defense of Coryn, but it does illustrate how the UK media treated him.

(No possibility, but ignore that. Click the link to see the thread)

Here’s another example, media reaction to anyone who remotely threatens corporate interests. The other day on the radio (NPR again, it’s on by default, sigh) a British fellow opined that “Boris Johnson is a dynamic and charismatic leader” while Corybn is “terrible, nothing more than a reconstituted Marxist.” Point being, Johnson is no less a racist and no less extreme - except it never matters how far right conservative parties move, or how many people are harmed by their policies - just so long as business interests are served.

(Spoiler to hide the gigantic images)

Summary

https://twitter.com/demarionunn/status/1205641568780267521?s=20

7558

That’s a great, illustrative thread. Thanks!

7559

Corbyn had more baggage than JFK Airport and his main problem is everyone kept opening up and rummaging through it.

Pidcock, Lewis, Thornberry, Phillips, Rayner or any other Labour MP with exactly the same manifesto and policies as Corbyn would have won it.

Yes, the right wing media (aka “all media” in Corbynista parlance) would have tried to make out they were Young Communists and if it was Thornberry we’d have endless white van man hanging up flags stories but that’s all they can do, the only thing they had on Miliband was a fucking sandwich and his dad being a communist. Whats the worst they have on Rayner? Oh she didnt go to university? They cant turn to an ageing electorate and say “remember in the 80s when Pidcock supported the IRA when their bombs were going off every few months?”, “remember her supporting the Soviet Union when we thought they were going to nuke us?”

On the plus side, Seumas Milne is sure to go. One of the worst ****s in politics. Imagine waking up on September 12 2001 and writing this.

7560

He can say it all he wants, but as I wrote earlier - good luck trying to stop it.

Boris can block Scotland from holding a binding independence referendum, but he’ll have a hard time preventing the Scottish parliament from holding a consultative referendum, if they wish to have one. And a victory in a consultative referendum will give the SNP the leverage they need, if the UK wants to do this the hard way. You’re going to argue that one consultative referendum is democratically binding, but that another consultative referendum is not?

Keep in mind that Scotland is an own nation. This is not Quebec or the Basque territories - you’re dealing with a people with their own history, supreme court and parliament. The SNP hasn’t argued for a unilateral withdrawal, but if it comes down to it where the Scots want their independence, I fail to see how the UK will stop it. I suspect they have a pretty good case if they want to take it to the Supreme Court, and if it comes right down to it, they can always appeal to the UN charter of human rights which explicitly states that a people have a right to select their own nationality, and secede unilaterally. I suspect there’ll be no shortage of countries more than happy to acknowledge Scottish statehood.

Personally, I think doing this the hard way plays entirely into Sturgeon’s hands. The more the Tories try to block a referendum, the more they assert that Whitehall (and a govenrment not elected by Scots) is sovereign over the decisions of the Scottish people, the more I suspect they’ll increase support for Scottish independence. Which seems kind of stupid - an SNP victory is far from a given at this point, so why gift them the added support by making yourselves the villains?

7561

My personal opinion is that it would be politically and morally wrong to prevent Scotland from having a referendum if they desire one. However, I think it’s certainly possible to delay indyref2 and that may well be the Tory’s strategy. Delay for the moment, let it be fought in the courts (more delay), wait and see what the 2021 Scottish election results are like…

The case for leaving the Union is bolstered heavily by Brexit Remainers. If Brexit proceeds smoothly and I now believe it will do so (I know you very much disagree) then this may cool Scottish independence back to 2014 levels (when they voted to stay in the Union).

I believe this is a highly, highly unlikely scenario. Unionists would boycott it. It would never be viewed as legitimate. I also think that Nicola Sturgen (who is a very savvy political operator) isn’t stupid enough to try this route. A much better strategy is to just continue to apply pressure to Westminster. If they continue their momentum then as you say, it will become impossible to prevent a legitimate referendum.

If Brexit goes badly then the chances of Scotland breaking from the Union is higher. If Brexit goes smoothly then this risk is reduced.

Besides… everyone here is pretty fed up with referendums. We could do without one for a while :)

7562

It’s going to be oddly amusing to see the nationalists who support Brexit end up resulting in the breakup of their own nation.

Of course that would be like hitting the lottery for the Russians who pushed this result.

7563

I actually think Brexit will proceed a lot more smoothly now - from the POV of wanting a Brexit, the election delivered the best possible result. Even in the best of cases, though, I don’t see how Boris will prevent there from being disruption and further drama - if nothing else because amplifying disruption and drama is in the political interests of so very many parties to this (including - in some respects - his own).

Either way, Brexit changes the referendum quite fundamentally. In 2015, the argument from Whitehall and the Unionists was that independence would result in Scotland leaving the EU. What will be the argument this time around? Plainly put, the independence side has a much stronger narrative this time than the Unionist side, no matter how Brexit goes. And strong narratives tends to win referendums.

From what I read, the Scottish parliament has already been moving ahead with a law this year that would bolster the legality of a vote sanctioned by Scotland, so I wouldn’t rule this out. I’m also rather dubious about any strategy to a referendum that involves not voting. Can’t think of any situations where that approach turned out successful, except in countries where the law requires a certain level of turnout (generally a good idea).

I agree Sturgeon won’t do this unless she sees no other option, though. And - I suspect - she’ll milk Tory intransigence for all that it is worth before making any such move. Given that Boris is pretty canny himself, in his way, it surprises me that they’re going out this strongly on the issue already. As you say - delay and deflect would be smart.

7564

The author doesn’t understand how opinion columists work. (i.e. newspaper columists will frequently write articles that directly disagree with other columists, or the editorial line in the newspaper).

Johnathan Freedland is a Blairite. Of course he has repeatedly argued against the parties drift (followed by a dash) to the left. Also, Brown, Miliband and Corbyn all lost. So maybe he was just … right?

Just give them a referendum and then a 2nd referendum on the divorce agreement, which will see Scotland take on an an utterly unsustainable debt pile that will result in crippling Greek style austerity(*). Union saved. The SNP can hardly complain about a second referendum :) :) :)

(*: This would not be a punishment, simply the natural result of the legal situation regarding the UK government debt).

7565

I believe our negotiating start point is a geographical share of assets and a population-based share of liabilities :)

7566

Goes to show how first-past-the-post can single-handedly change truthful headlines like “divided nation demands compromise from new hung parliament” and “Most British people under 50 are terrified of future, think the conservatives fucking sux” into what we are seeing now: “Landslide conservative win, Corbyn the devil”, “huge brexit mandate delivered to Boris”, etc.

7567

Maybe the left should have implemented PR when they had the chance then

7568

When was that? Reminds me of the Canadian Liberal party dropping ranked voting from their reform agenda a few years ago, and almost lost the last election because of FPTP.

7569

Labour were seriously looking at it in 97, but after the landslide they looked at the electoral map and thought, we’ll take that. Which lead to the 2005 majority on 35 percent of the vote, which lead to the Lisbon treaty ratification, which lead to the referendum, which lead to Brexit.

7570

It’s unfortunately a human constant that those in power are uninterested in changing the system. It’s what brought them to power, after all.

7572

If Brexit goes poorly, Labour would either almost certainly win enough to coalition with the SNP, and you can have a binding referendum as the price for this, or the Tories will need a C&S partner, and you can coalition with them temporarily to get that, and secession would be even more likely there, and the Tories would probably not mind , as that’s more seats for them.

7573

It’s got to happen

7574

I just see this as Scottish Labour trying to play catch up with the SNP. I also think it’s massively irresponsible to call for civil disobedience. Regardless, indyref2 isn’t coming anytime soon. I’d be really, really shocked if it happened within the next 5 years.